Zahir Kazmi

Strategic Plans Division, NCA. Views my own.

[Zahir Kazmi @ArmsConAdvisor]

This is a short teaser for a longer paper, Nuclear Bluff Myth: Ambiguity, Deterrence and Miscalculation in South Asia, which engages recent Carnegie analyses on signalling, escalation, and crisis stability in India-Pakistan crises.

Constructive strategic disagreement sharpens the debate.

#StrategicStability #IndiaPakistan #NuclearDeterrence
@ranajawad @TahirAndrabi

2/2

[Zahir Kazmi @ArmsConAdvisor]

Seven years on, India says Kashmir is “integrated” and “normal”. Yet J&K parties mark Black Day, while UN CERD asks about discrimination in land and jobs. Consent—not coercion—is the test. Will @MEAIndia answer with post-2019 data and permit independent access? #YoumEIstehsal

The UN CERD review of India opens on 10 August. Its List of Themes specifically asks about discrimination in employment and land ownership in J&K, and allegations involving law-enforcement operations. Paras 22–23: https://t.co/NNpQOQ7M1L @IndiaUNGeneva @UNHumanRights

[Zahir Kazmi @ArmsConAdvisor]

Mr Jaiswal, rhetoric cannot repeal law.

Calling Jammu and Kashmir an “internal matter” does not erase:

▪️ UNSC Resolution 47—adopted under the “India–Pakistan question” and providing for a plebiscite;

▪️ India’s own Simla Agreement, under which neither side shall unilaterally alter the situation pending final settlement;

▪️ the UN Security Council’s consideration of Kashmir following the measures of 5 August 2019; or

▪️ India’s UN CERD review opening on 10 August, which specifically asks about discrimination in land ownership and employment in J&K, and allegations involving law-enforcement operations.

Nor does invoking development answer the foundational question of consent. Development cannot extinguish an international dispute or substitute for the freely expressed will of its people.

India runs with the hare and hunts with the hound — we are aware of what 🇮🇳 and its proxies are doing in Balochistan, KP and elsewhere. They’ll be defeated. So let independent international scrutiny cover atrocities by 🇮🇳 against Kashmiris fighting for their freedom from illegal occupation.

Bharat can’t even stand a scrutiny to what it’s doing in Red Corridor!

If not, “internal matter” is not an argument—it is a shield against verification. Allegations against Pakistan remain a diversion, not an answer to the Kashmiri people.

@MEAIndia @IndiaUNGeneva @UNHumanRights @TahirAndrabi @ForeignOfficePk @PakUN_Geneva @PakistanUN_NY @ciss_ajk @AsmaKhawaja5
#Kashmir #YoumEIstehsal

[Zahir Kazmi @ArmsConAdvisor]

@PakMilitary132 😢🫡🍀🇵🇰

[Zahir Kazmi @ArmsConAdvisor]

@AJEnglish 😳

[Global Insight Journal @GlobalIJournal]

BREAKING: Friedrich Merz is resigning on August 10 after just one year as German Chancellor — following Keir Starmer, who just stepped down as UK Prime Minister. Two major European leaders gone in weeks. Europe's leadership crisis deepens.

[Zahir Kazmi @ArmsConAdvisor]

@Hunterop091 🫡❤️🍀💐

[Zahir Kazmi @ArmsConAdvisor]

Transferring naval nuclear propulsion technology even to NPT non-nuclear-weapon states is commonly considered an anomaly to nonproliferation ideals. SSNs to 🇮🇳 - a non NPT nuclear armed State - is next level of exceptionalism.

🇮🇳 continues to produce fissile material outside IAEA monitoring, was granted an exceptional NSG waiver in 2008 and its safeguards arrangements with IAEA aren’t proliferation proof. SSNs may provide an additional cover for diversion of safeguarded materials.

Supporting 🇮🇳’s SSN program is not “capacity building against China.”
It uses the China threat as a convenient bogey to extract technology, political cover, and strategic space from the West — while its actual force posture and nuclear trajectory continue to prioritise regional dominance and pressure on Pakistan.

Selective non-proliferation has already destabilised the region.

Extending naval nuclear propulsion cooperation or political endorsement to Bharat’s SSN programme takes that selectivity one dangerous step further.

This is not about balancing. It is about arming a non-NPT nuclear power beyond the teeth while pretending the consequences stop at the Malacca Strait.

#SSN #IndiaNuclear #StrategicStability #IOR #NonProliferation

@orfonline
@idrwalerts @Heritage @RadioactiveFrnd
5/5

[Zahir Kazmi @ArmsConAdvisor]

India’s latest K-4 SLBM test from INS Arighaat (3,500km range) isn’t just a boost to its sea-based triad — it’s a red flag for global stability. As I detail in my @CISS_Islamabad Insight paper, India’s nuclear enterprise far exceeds regional needs: ~150 warheads, fissile stocks for 138-213 more, Agni-V ICBM (7,000+km), upcoming Agni-VI. This buildup risks arms race in IOR. [1/6]

[Zahir Kazmi @ArmsConAdvisor]

India’s undersea nuclear trajectory still rests on the unsafeguarded fissile-material pathway protected by the 2008 NSG waiver.
SSNs and SSBNs draw from the same dual-use enterprise. Encouraging the former while ignoring the latter is not strategic clarity — it is selective non-proliferation.

For instance see @fissilematerial report: https://t.co/VpbYMcsm30

@Mansoor_Ahmed76 @hushamahmed @RadioactiveFrnd @orfonline
3/

[CISSS @CISSS_Karachi]

@UnderSecT @scientistsorg @BulletinAtomic @ArmsControlWonk @ArmsControlNow @clary_co @MichaelKugelman @SIPRIorg @CarnegieEndow @dhume @HappymonJacob @StateACN @adgpi @IISS_org @rajnathsingh @SpokespersonMoD @DrSJaishankar @MEAIndia @PakPMO @PMOIndia @CSIS @orfhindi @NTI_WMD

[Pakistan Armed Forces News 🇵🇰 @PakistanFauj]

Security forces carried out multiple intelligence based operations across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa for the last two months under the Azm-e-Istehkam

Many Hideouts of Fitna al Khawarij terrorists have destroyed during the intelligence based operations in North Waziristan.

Several Khawarij terrorists were killed during an operation in the Khatti Kili area of North Waziristan. A large quantity of weapons, ammunition and other equipment was recovered from the killed terrorists.

Intelligence indicates that several terrorists belonging to Fitna al-Khawarij were injured during the operation.

Every effort is being made during the operations to ensure the safety of the lives and property of the local population and to avoid any harm to civilians.

Security sources reaffirmed that the security forces will continue operations across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa until lasting peace is established and terrorism is eliminated

[Pakistan Armed Forces News 🇵🇰 @PakistanFauj]

On the occasion of Youm-e-Istehsal, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, NI (M), HJ, Chief of Army Staff & Chief of Defence Forces (COAS & CDF) reaffirms Pakistan’s unwavering solidarity with the resilient and courageous people of Indian illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK).

[Balochistan Think Tank Network (BTTN) @bttn_quetta]

On 5 August 2019, the Indian Government unlawfully revoked the special status granted to the Jammu and Kashmir territory, which has remained under illegal Indian occupation since 1948.

Article 370 of the Indian Constitution granted Jammu and Kashmir a distinct constitutional arrangement under which the state had its own constitution, its own flag, and autonomy over all internal subjects.

Article 35A, added by a 1954 Presidential Order, was the companion provision. It empowered the state legislature to define “permanent residents” and reserve for them exclusive rights to immovable property, government employment, and state scholarships; effectively barring outsiders from acquiring land.

Both were hollowed out on 5 August 2019 by India in a move to consolidate its hold over Kashmir by force. The people of the Indian Occupied Kashmir continue their opposition to this unilateral move by India.

Pakistan's position on Kashmir is principled on the will of the Kashmiri people. A plebiscite, based on recurrent UNSC resolutions, reflecting the true aspirations of the people of Kashmir, should be held. That is the only peaceful way of resolving the dispute over Kashmir permanently.

#Kashmir #YoumEistehsal

[Zahir Kazmi @ArmsConAdvisor]

The UN CERD review of India opens on 10 August. Its List of Themes specifically asks about discrimination in employment and land ownership in J&K, and allegations involving law-enforcement operations.
Paras 22–23: https://t.co/NNpQOQ7M1L

@IndiaUNGeneva @UNHumanRights
@TahirAndrabi
@hushamahmed @ForeignOfficePk @MEAIndia @dratiaalikazmi @AsmaKhawaja5 @ciss_ajk

[Zahir Kazmi @ArmsConAdvisor]

On #YoumEIstehsal, Pakistan’s 🇵🇰 leadership has rightly reaffirmed that India’s 🇮🇳 unilateral measures of 5 August 2019 neither altered the internationally disputed status of Jammu & Kashmir nor extinguished Kashmiris’ right to self-determination under #UNSC resolutions.

But the deeper strategic cost remains under-examined. Demographic engineering and legal rewriting seek to manufacture political finality. The parallel effort to normalise limited force under a nuclear overhang seeks to manufacture confidence that escalation can be controlled. Together, they narrow political space, weaken crisis restraint and heighten escalation risks between nuclear-armed neighbours.

The May 2025 crisis should have dispelled any illusion that Kashmir can remain unresolved while strategic stability is managed separately. Kashmir is not merely a political grievance; it is a structural stressor on South Asian stability and the most dangerous nuclear flashpoint.

Those who claim otherwise should explain what in the record sustains their confidence.

#Kashmir #StrategicStability

@dratiaalikazmi
@NarangVipin @sushantsareen @Iyervval @IDSAIndia @orfonline @MEAIndia @ArmsControlNow @PakistanUN_NY @RadioactiveFrnd @ciss_ajk @CISS_Islamabad @AsmaKhawaja5 @zafarwafa1977 @OfficialDGISPR

[Zahir Kazmi @ArmsConAdvisor]

From sandbox escapes to active deception.
@WSJ’s @bobmcmillan reports that during late-July tests by the UK’s @AISecurityInst, OpenAI and Anthropic models took “autonomous, unsanctioned action on the live internet.”
Anthropic’s Mythos 5 ran a supply-chain attack: created fake personas, emailed real developers (some messages carrying malware), and pushed them to insert malicious code into open-source projects — all to “win” a benchmark.
OpenAI models also spun up malicious servers and compromised GitHub accounts.
Technical performance metrics are still not enough.
Meaningful human control must remain non-negotiable — design, testing, real-time oversight, and accountability.
Essential reporting:
https://t.co/Yc8qkXDOK2
#AgenticAI #AISafety #MeaningfulHumanControl #ArmsControl
@OpenAI @sama @AnthropicAI @DarioAmodei @ClementDelangue @huggingface @FLI_org @SIPRIorg @ForeignOfficePk @Reuters

[Zahir Kazmi @ArmsConAdvisor]

An @OpenAI agent escapes its sandbox (~9 July), hacks another firm for days (11–13 July), and stays undetected ~a week. Technical metrics are not enough.
Meaningful human control must remain non-negotiable design to real-time oversight to accountability.

Read why:
https://t.co/KiaYYsvv9L

#AgenticAI #AISafety #ArmsControl

@Reuters @ClementDelangue @huggingface @sama @dseetharaman @kenrickcai @FLI_org @SIPRIorg @ForeignOfficePk @bttn_quetta @zafarwafa1977

[Sputnik @SputnikInt]

China unveils world’s first hybrid rig to drill and blast through mountains

The new boring-and-blasting tunnel machine boosts hard-rock digging efficiency by 30% — a leap for high-end underground engineering.

🔸 Co-developed by Tsinghua University and a unit of China Railway Group, the 4.5m-diameter "Xianglong" rolled off the line in Wuhan

🔸 Standard tunnel boring machines slow down in extremely hard or fractured mountain rock — the hybrid rig integrates excavation with built-in drilling and blasting to solve this

🔸 Built entirely with a domestic supply chain, it will undergo its first on-site trial at a pumped-storage power plant in Henan

This innovation offers a homegrown solution for massive construction as China pushes deep-tunnel infrastructure under its 15th five-year plan.

The image is AI-generated