Martin Armstrong.

Founder of Armstrong Economics and the Economic Confidence Model

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

Zelensky now claims Europe ‘cannot protect itself’ without Ukraine. When a client state starts lecturing its sponsors on their own security, the power structure is upside down and the EU is definitely pro-war.

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

Zelensky now claims Europe ‘cannot protect itself’ without Ukraine. When a client state starts lecturing its sponsors on their own security, the power structure is upside down and the EU is definitely pro-war.

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

Freedom is rarely lost in one dramatic moment. It disappears through a thousand small steps, each presented as reasonable, practical, and necessary. Most people will accept digital ID because it appears convenient, but there are the remaining few who continue to trust the government.

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

What few people appreciate is how quickly a digital identity can become the master key for everyday life. Once your government-issued digital credentials are stored on your phone, they can be linked to tax records, healthcare access, benefits, banking verification, travel documents, age verification, employment eligibility, and countless other services.

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

Privacy advocates, cybersecurity experts, and civil liberties groups have already warned that digital identity systems will erode privacy and place sensitive information in a centralized database, ripe for the taking. Once your identity, credentials, permissions, and access are concentrated inside a digital ecosystem, the relationship between citizen and state fundamentally changes.

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

The United Kingdom is now moving toward a digital identity system tied to smartphones through the GOV UK Wallet and digital credentials. The politicians sell it as convenience. They always do. It is easier. It is faster. It is more secure. Those are the same promises made every time governments seek to consolidate information and authority into a single system.

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

Every nation has flaws, but a political movement that teaches people to be ashamed of their country instead of fighting to improve it only breeds division and resentment.

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

An entire generation of politicians has been educated to view Western civilization as little more than a pile of sins. They can recite every historical failure but rarely acknowledge the freedoms, innovations, and opportunities that attracted millions of immigrants over centuries.

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

From a cyclical perspective, this is exactly the type of mixed economic environment we have been warning about. The economy is not collapsing, but neither is it expanding in a healthy and sustainable manner. Government hiring, wartime spending, healthcare expansion, and deficit financing can keep employment numbers elevated far longer than most analysts expect.

At the same time, private-sector confidence continues to deteriorate beneath the surface. This divergence is what confuses forecasters because they are looking at individual data points rather than the broader cycle.

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

What they never seem to understand is that employment is always a lagging indicator. Businesses do not fire workers the moment sales soften. They cut expenses elsewhere first, halt new hiring, and delay investment. Only after the downturn becomes undeniable do layoffs begin to accelerate. Looking solely at today’s payroll number and concluding that everything is fine is the same mistake governments and central banks have made repeatedly throughout history.

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

Our models have been warning that 2026 would be a panic-cycle year marked by rising volatility and escalating geopolitical tensions. The risks continue building into 2027, which remains a major war-risk year. By 2028, recessionary pressures, sovereign debt concerns, and civil unrest begin colliding with these geopolitical tensions.

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

My greatest fear, and I have expressed this, is that Zelensky has attempted several times to assassinate Putin. Putin is probably the most respectful and conservative Russian. If you get rid of him, the people behind him would push the button.

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

Trump peace president? If you look behind the curtain, he has definitely tried to back out of Taiwan. What he's done with Iran is clearly much more complicated. Iran wants a guarantee that they will not be invaded again. Trump can't get that from Netanyahu. Netanyahu has already said, "Whatever you do, we're not going to recognize".

They have successfully trapped Trump.

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

The problem Trump has is that he had Netanyahu, who's been trying to sell this invasion of Iran to just about every president before him. He was there in the Situation Room, which is a first for any world leader to be allowed in. He sold this invasion to Trump with our own American neocons.

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

Russia wanted to Donbass because there are Russians there.

If anybody really looked at the unbiased news, you'll see, after 2014, what happened. Ukrainians in Odessa started dragging Russians off the street, beating them. They chased a whole bunch into the trade union building and set it on fire and burned them alive.

That's what started the whole separation movement.

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

Iran Internal Briefing on Potential War.

"This type of battle has the the possibility of victory as in Vietnam".

"A large American ship was built to counter a Soviet-built ship of the same size, but when the same ship is faced with a number of speedboats, it loses its efficiency and effectiveness."

"This is why one of the advantages of symmetrical and asymmetrical warfare is that, to some extent, it disarms the enemy."

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

History has always been one of the most powerful forces in politics. Politicians believe they shape history. More often than not, history shapes them.

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

Thirty-seven years have passed since the events of June 4, 1989, and yet the Chinese government continues to devote enormous resources to preventing people from remembering it. That fact alone should tell you how significant the event remains.

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

Perhaps the greatest mistake investors and governments continue to make is assuming that because the worst outcome has not happened yet, it never will. History is full of periods where tensions built gradually until suddenly they accelerated.

Looking back, everyone claimed the warning signs were obvious. Living through them, most people dismissed them as noise. But now the noise is becoming very loud.

[Martin A. Armstrong @ArmstrongEcon]

What concerns me is that military officials across multiple countries are increasingly discussing the same timeframe.

Latvia’s military chief recently warned of a strategic vulnerability window extending until roughly 2028.

Taiwan is building military capabilities specifically with 2029 in mind.

NATO is preparing for a longer confrontation. Ukraine is warning of larger Russian offensives.

Independent actors are arriving at similar conclusions despite viewing the world through entirely different lenses.