Warsh does NOT need to say “stagflation” at Jackson Hole today.
He just needs to describe it.
Listen for this:
Growth goes from solid...slowing / cooling / softening.
Labour suddenly gets downside-risk language.
BUT inflation is still “elevated” or “persistent”.
That’s the problem.
The Fed can’t comfortably hike into a slowdown.
It can’t comfortably ease with core PCE still at 3.3%.
So the pressure gets pushed into the bond market.
And there’s ONE relationship I’m watching:
Yields up + DXY up = hawkish Fed
Yields up + DXY down = stagflation getting priced
That second one is where gold gets VERY interesting.
And don’t get fooled if Warsh gives no obvious rate signal.
Silence isn’t necessarily dovish.
The real trade is in what changes from July:
Growth.
Jobs.
Inflation.
Price stability.
Read the growth sentence first.
Read the inflation sentence second.
Then watch the 30Y against the dollar.
That tells you what the market actually heard.
You know the miami influencers lied, you know ICT concepts are over saturated and do not consistently work (just renamed pre existing patterns), you know signal chats are failing/ scams, you know technical analysis alone is leaving you in the dark/ confused, you realize the market is heavily fundamentally driven (especially since 2020) ,you see most retailers avoid fundamentals due to low iq and ignorance.
So cut the games and time wasting. Either move and learn in the right direction or save the financial loss/ time loss and quit now. (This is not a fairytale and people end their own lives over financial loss via investment and trading)
Whether you use CH and MRKT or dont is not my point. I still want you as a trader to understand the FINANCIAL part of financial markets.
Foundational fundamental market concepts respected, valued and used around the world by professionals for a reason. You do not need to be an expert or high level macro economist but even the intentional effort to become well versed in the foundation will give you an edge on all retail traders.
I encourage you to learn, fail, trial/ error, refine, grow, sharpen and succeed.
Take action.
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When the US Treasury loses credibility, it's troubles
That's all you need to know
Troubles for:
1. US equities (and global)
2. US bonds (and global)
3. Domestic currency (the Dollar)
You barely survived CPI and now PPI is next
We're going live this morning breaking it all down and trading it in real time.
🚨 REMINDER: the MRKT giveaway ends in less than 1 HOUR.
Enter before it's too late.
🚨Here is exactly how you should trade $BTC ahead of CPI this week
Full Playbook! (bookmark this)
BTC/USD is 100% bullish right not BUT price is stuck in a range due to some indecision on the higher time frame
Why it's bullish:
-Cooling inflation makes investors weigh rate cut bets
-Strong inflow into Bitcoin ETFs provide structural support
-Iran war optimism from last week is still holding major market weight
What could flip it bearish:
-The federal reserve has recently given some hawkish comments, higher rates pressure BTC lower
-Very recent Trump headlines regarding Iran reparations dispute keeps geopolitical risk elevated
How to trade it:
-Since price is ranging, adjust your expectations and use less risk
-Wait for some lower prices to get retested before jumping in (use MRKT levels)
-When price is there check the bias and enter how your strategy dictates
-Take your profit and don't get greedy, CPI is around the corner
Do not take my banter so seriously guys.
Main focus is the insights, views, risks, plans shared regarding markets via full detailed playbook and webinars.
Other than that casual roasting, anime, gym talk, banter with the mandem is routine.
We are in the trenches together no one is better than anyone else. Same game.
We will all have failures, make mistakes, learning hurdles, challenges, ups/ downs and that will build our character.
This is exactly the kind of useless forward guidance Warsh wants to get rid off
I mean, come on, you are 2 days ahead of a CPI print
What's the point of saying this?
See the number first, and then make your assumptions
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Core CPI is expected to come in at 2.5% next week, down from 2.6%
Two months ago it was 2.9%, that is real progress toward the 2% target
Meanwhile the market still has a 44% chance of a September hike baked in
If core CPI prints as economists expect, 44% is too high
Closer to 20% is fair
And when rate hike expectations fade, the currency weakens
nobody in trading wants to hear this but the market has already shown you everything it's ever going to do.
every crash you're scared of has happened before. every breakout you'll ever catch has printed a thousand times.
every trap that takes your money this year took someone's money in 1987, 1998, 2008, 2020. same shapes. same panic. same headlines with the dates changed.
there are no new candles. there's only new traders.
and this is why experience is worth more than intelligence in this game, and why clever people struggle in it.
degrees don't transfer. talent doesn't transfer.
but the bloke who's SEEN the trap before doesn't need to be smart, he just crosses the road before the bus arrives, because last time he got hit by it.
the market can't surprise a good trader. it can only remind him.
so if you're getting battered right now, understand what's actually happening. you're not unlucky. you're not stupid.
you're just meeting each trap for the first time, at full price, one by one. everyone before you paid the same tuition at the same window.
the fee never changes.
the only choice you get is whether you pay it twice.
Cut the noise, downgrade valueless opinions, learn what drives markets, go through trial/ error, develop your confidence and conviction. Prove them wrong.
The unemployment rate fell, so... the data was mixed, right?
Ehhh not quite
See, there are 2 ways to make the unemployment rate go down
1. People get hired, that’s the good one
2. Or people exit the labor force, that’s the bad one
And well…
The latest drop?
It’s because of number 2
Now pair that with a negative NFP and a massive downward revision to the prior 2 NFPs, and well... that's quite a dovish labor market print
Most retail traders are taught to believe that the market moves because a line was touched, an RSI level reached, or a pattern appeared on a 5 minute chart
That is backwards!
Price is the visible result of capital allocation decisions being made around inflation, growth expectations, interest rate differentials, central bank policy, liquidity conditions, and risk appetite
Technical analysis can help you structure an entry, define invalidation, and manage execution, but it cannot tell you why institutions are repricing an asset in the first place
When you understand the macro reason behind a move, you start seeing the right setups and start identifying the conditions that make a swing trade worth holding
1. MACRO CREATES THE BIAS: Growth, inflation, rates, and liquidity shape where large capital wants exposure
2. FUNDAMENTALS CREATE THE CATALYST: Data releases, policy shifts, and expectations force repricing
3. TECHNICALS CREATE THE EXECUTION: Levels matter most after you understand the institutional reason price should react there
Stop adding indicators to an incomplete process
Learn the cause behind the move, then use the chart to execute with precision
That's what works for me...
But hey!
You can keep believing your technical guru on YouTube with NO track record trading trendlines saying macro is noise😉