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https://t.co/wlkhJOwMw5
This is the only thing you need to read about tariffs to understand Bitcoin for 2025. This is undoubtedly my highest conviction macro trade for the year: Plaza Accord 2.0 is coming.
Bookmark this and revisit as the financial war unravels sending Bitcoin violently higher.
Massive episode last week with @HighStakesCap 🎉
This week Wintermute's very own @JO_wintermute joins us to talk about market making, Solana memes, AI, and maybe even a little $TRUMP!
@KeyboardMonkey3@osf_rekt@rektmando
Set your Spaces reminder 👇👀
https://t.co/M3X4q2n2Vz
My take on AI coins, as someone who faded it all of 2024:
- initial reactions was that most of it seemed like a larp
- didn't really spend a huge amount of time looking into it, mainly coz I found it annoying (ie concealed cope)
- thought it was something that would be a short-term meta and fade
- got to 1st Jan and I see a lot of accounts I respect (and didn't even know were in AI coins) calling for it to potentially be a main cycle narrative
- got @rektmando up my arse telling me to get involved while I disagree (same thing happened with NFTs in 2021 and I caved after a couple of weeks)
- seeing the AI agent mkt cap at $15bn was the thing that really caught me...like...without knowing anything about anything it's very easy to see the possibility of that 10x-ing with the current mindshare
- then it occurs to me given it hasn't died it's probably become too big to ignore
- realise I haven't touched altcoins for literally years and I'm too used to memecoins when thinking about FDVs
- reality is altcoins in the past generally have had materially higher FDV than most memecoins - that's not to say memecoins won't do well this year (I think they will), but if AI/agents take off as a real altcoin sector a lot of these FDVs can quickly go into tens of billions in a strong crypto market (especially infra)
- as far as narratives go, left curve won last year with memecoins, VCs and mid curvers struggled...this could be their comeback/revenge trade - the reality is a large part of the defi crowd never got into memecoins coz they thought it was stupid, but this is something they think is smart
- do I think any of the AI stuff is gamechanging? IDK prob not, or I'm too dumb to realise it. does it need to be tokenised? probably not...but isn't that true for so many things in crypto lol. Do I think the price will go higher? Probably yes...I think it's lindified enough for me that a lot of people are going to get bought in if it keeps going higher and the ceiling is much higher if you compare it to alts.
- summary is I am not an AI fanboy by any means, but I am a trader and I feel like I do have a decent sense for when something is about to take off...whether now is a good entry point or you wait for a 50% dip IDK but I think I would get angry if it all ripped and I didn't own any and that's when you know you have to be involved
- I don't think AI or alts rally at the cost of memecoins, I think memecoins continue to have a very strong year because it appeals to a different crowd...owning a strong meme/cult coin makes you feel like you're part of a movement and that idea is only going to get stronger over time; I just think both can do well this year.
Fartcoin, Rekt, EPIK + dino altcoin shorts the only things holding up my portfolio today
Bearish signs:
- Hawkish Fed pointing to inflation with Trump
- Crypto total market cap just broke it's up trend
- Global M2 money supply heading lower
- Unease at MicroStrategy levered buys
- Trump rally may have somewhat happened (?)
Bullish signs
- We may get BTC reserve executive order on Day 1
- Sovereigns, states, companies all buying
- Saylor theoretically has $40bn+ to buy
- FTX distributions end of Q1
- A lot of memecoins/altcoins already retraced 50%+
- AI meets crypto feels like a paradigm shift
I said we had until the inauguration then we would chop for a few months then resume uptrend
Still think we are going higher but does feel like easy mode has come to an end
so what happened the last month?
- Trump wins, BTC rips
- SOL + memes initially follow as T1 listings start
- Dino coins start to take over led by XRP
- SOL memes feel more PvP after Pnut, Act listing
- Retail finds it easier to pump dino coin over memes
- SOL starts to underperform in L1s
- Many SOL memes retrace 1 month of price action
- ETH memes hit new ATHs led by PEPE + MOG
- BTC hits a ceiling at $100k
- Dino coins begin to underperform
- Rotation back to SOL + memes?
Few have been paying attention to the impressive growth in AI16Z’s Eliza agent framework. Continue to feel bullish about the ai agent sector, especially the main 4 assets that I’ve highlighted (virtual, ai16z, vvaifu, zerebro).
If you bought $100 of Bitcoin when Coinbase was founded in June 2012, it would now be worth about $1,500,000.
If you kept the $100 USD you'd only be able to purchase about $73 worth of goods today.
Bitcoin is the best performing asset of the last 12 years, and it's still early days.
Every government, especially those looking to create a hedge against inflation, should create a Bitcoin strategic reserve.
Happy Bitcoin $100k day.
The Magic Eden airdrop checker just went live.
In this thread, I have all the info for you on how to check your allocation, how to claim, what value you can expect and everything else you need to know 🧵👇
(1/12)
i didn’t sell one single piece of tokenized/NFT art during the bear market (or even during the last bull market)
most reading this don’t get the 10-20 year bull case for digital art
but i do, and that is why my hands are made of diamonds 🤲💎
https://t.co/6zl2YjtLts
Wow $MSTR is the most traded stock in America today.. to best $TSLA and $NVDA is crazy. It's been years since a stock has traded more than one of those two (it may have actually been $GME to last do it). It's also about double $SPY! Wild times..