Art Kitchener

[Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien]

I’ve been seeing a lot of chatter on X about “peak cycle” and how the economy looks late-cycle. So I wanted to tackle this head on and share a few thoughts of my own...

This is from the August 21st MIT publication:

A classic late-cycle economy typically has all the following ingredients:

✅ Manufacturing sentiment is extreme (think ISM ~60)
✅ Services sentiment is extreme
✅ Homebuilder sentiment is extreme
✅ Consumer confidence is high
✅ Worker confidence is high (JOLTS quits rate rising sharply)
✅ Investor sentiment is very bullish
✅ Small business confidence is high
✅ Job openings and hiring plans are rising
✅ Wage data and surveys show accelerating pay increases
✅ CEO confidence is strong and capex is booming

Now, I could add more to this, but when you score all of these inputs and turn them into a single timeseries, here’s what you get (chart 1).

Using data from ISM, NAHB, NFIB, BLS, AAII, The Conference Board, etc., US sentiment, when viewed as a complete picture, remains very subdued. We’re just not even close to the euphoric levels we see late in the business cycle, when everything listed above is stretched to extremes.

Peak cycle is when the ISM rolls over from 60+ to sub-50, inventories unwind, and demand cools. Supply and demand reset, inflation pressures ease, and the cycle eventually recovers out of the slowdown or recession – mostly depending on the extent to which financial conditions tightened during the cycle, particularly late on as central banks hike rates and drain liquidity.

However, based on this full set of indicators, the data is pointing to something very different. This does not look like an above-trend late-cycle economy. It looks much more like an early-cycle economy trying to build momentum.

Another really important factor, and a key reason we believe both the ISM and this sentiment composite will grind higher this year and into 2026, is the sheer scale of central bank easing via rate cuts.

Right now, nearly 90% of central banks are cutting rates. That is extraordinary, and on a forward-looking basis, it is a massive tailwind for the business cycle (chart 2).

By my playbook, the time to start talking late-cycle is when the teal line rolls over and begins to drop, as central banks turn to hiking rates to slow growth. Even then, there’s usually a nine-month lag before higher rates hit the real economy.

Right now, we’re just nowhere near that... in fact, the opposite is true.

To my earlier point, slowdown or recession is largely a function of how much financial conditions tighten late in the cycle. Oil prices are a big part of this equation. When oil runs 50% above trend, that represents a massive tightening and has almost always signaled recession, looking back to the early 1970s.

However, right now, we are nearly 20% below trend and still falling, which shows this component of financial conditions is still easing (chart 3).

Also, as I’ve pointed out many times in previous reports, when you look at Temporary Help Services, it has early-cycle vibes written all over it (chart 4).

Rising growth from deeply negative levels is an early-cycle dynamic. It tells you the economy is in recovery mode, not rolling over.

Late-cycle is the opposite: positive year-on-year growth that’s slowing, which reflects an overheated economy losing steam.

Why is unemployment still rising?

Because it lags the cycle. Jobs data is a six-month look in the rear-view mirror.

Here’s the thing: full-time hires are expensive. Benefits, pensions, overhead…

So what do businesses do first?

They typically increase overtime hours and bring in temp workers. Only when they feel confident do they finally lock in full-time staff. That way, they can scale without locking themselves into long-term payroll commitments.

So, this isn’t late-cycle. It’s early-cycle (growth up + inflation down = Macro Spring), soon transitioning to mid-cycle (growth up + inflation up = Macro Summer).

That’s how I see it, anyway...

[Art Kitchener @ArtKitchener]

@ZssBecker Hell ya! This one is a banger! Truth bombs 💣

[Alex Becker 🍊🏆🥇 @ZssBecker]

If you’re in your 20s, someday you’ll be 37 like me. So read this.

I just turned 37. In my twenties, I thought my life would be over at this point lol.

Ironically, I’m in the best shape, mental state, wealthier than I could of ever imagined, healthiest, and imo most attractive I’ve ever been in my life (before you roll your eyes, I was gross in my 20s… not hard lol).

I literally have everything I ever wanted. Including a wonderful wife.

But only because I sacrificed.

No one I know personally growing up went to the extremes I did to learn about health, self-development, social skills (which I had zero of). No one tried as hard or as long as me to get rich.

I’m not saying look at me, I’m special.

I’m saying I sacrificed a lot, took a lot of risk, and was very uncomfortable all the time.

And what I’m trying to convey to you is that the sacrifices you’re taking or considering taking are 500x worth it. You should sacrifice more actually, and do it with glee.

Go live in a $500-a-month apartment in Thailand and burn everything at the altar of your character arc.

I literally wish I had just done that at 20, trained Muay Thai and BJJ, and built harder. Big life regrets.

Anyways.

People (losers) will tell you you’re being crazy and missing out. Stop being money-focused. Stop trying, being so vain. Live a little.

They are wrong. Really fucking wrong. So unbelievably wrong that I would literally jump off a bridge if I had to switch lives with them and suffer the consequences of their life of no sacrifice.

You are missing zero. You will regret zero. Proudly go psycho monk mode and become as great as you can be.

You won’t regret missing getting drunk at the same bar 500 times with people you don’t even talk to at 40. You won’t regret missing the pointless dating. You won’t regret taking risk and failing.

You will deeeeeply regret at my age not sacrificing. You will start to see the decade of choices deeply and permanently in your and other men’s—you knows—lives.

And you will see this post is the truth.

After your twenties, the lifestyle, women, and all that shit you want will figure itself out and just come to you.

Hell, it’ll probably come to you in your early 20s and try to distract you because you’re building up so much power.

Keep sacrificing. It’s all completely worth it, and you’ll realize it’s actually the most fun part.

I work and sacrifice more now than I ever did… because it’s awesome pursuing the best possible potential for yourself personally.

Anyways, eat the shit. Skip everything. Picture your perfect character arc and light everything else on fire to get it.

And when you are at an age in the future that seems terrifying now, you will actually be enjoying the best times of your life.

Move fast, young man. You will be an old man who’s about to become an even older man soon.

[lynk @lynk0x]

If bitcoin goes to over 130K USD at anytime before the end of the year I’ll give everyone who retweets this .1 BTC or $13,000.

[Mark Moss @1MarkMoss]

What if there was a 5-YR retirement strategy instead of 40, and it generates tax-free income forever?

Everything you've been taught about retirement is based on an Industrial-era system, a world that no longer exists…

Bitcoin is the Cheat Code, here's how it fixes this...

[Crash @CrashiusClay69]

Ever since trump coin came out it drained so much liquidity from retail and meme buyers

But now that 99% of memes have been wiped out and only a few left standing strong

Money can funnel into the few clear winners and push us harder and further than before

It will all be worth the wait. Make sure when you are up 2x, 4x, 6x, 8x, 10x you are locking in and getting back your initial cost

If you are not taking your initials off the table, you are playing memes wrong

And secondly don’t rotate your stables into more coins or plays as tempting as it may be

HOLD YOUR STABLES if you sell

and wait for blood in the future and be okay with missing out on some upside

One of the worst things you can do is take your profits, and rotate into some other coin that’s pumped up and blow it

A 20x rotated into -90% is only a 2x

A 20x rotated into buying blood in the future that does a measley 2x is 40x

You are actually better off shorting shitcoins on 1x leverage than you know are buying and rotating into overextended shitcoins most of u rotate profits into later

If everyone in the $Brett community takes their initial cost out when they are up 2x+

Not only will the community be more prepared for hard times, but we will also be able to sustain stronger than other coins and buy the blood and bounce back harder than other memes

Doesn’t matter how high you think a coin goes

Lock in your initials when you are up multiple X’s so you don’t have to ever go thru unnecessary mental torture during a future bloodbath in the market

Let���s nail this run harder than the last ones.

We are far more ready to handle bigger success

If we didn’t have these previous experiences

And let’s say we ran to 20B on the last run, most of you would’ve messed it up anyways and probably blew all your money in the downturn

Be happy your coins didn’t reach your targets before

You are way more prepared now to actually be efficient with the results that come your way.

Gods timing is perfect.

Trust your gut, vision, and execute brozinkers

[Art Kitchener @ArtKitchener]

@CrashiusClay69 Amen! 💪

[Mark Moss @1MarkMoss]

This is 1D thinking, the wealthy 1% think about it completely differently.

They wouldn't sell $MSTR shares to buy a Ferrari, because they don't "Sell" assets for fiat and they wouldn't pay $600k for a car.

Here's how they would think about this...

To get the $600k, you would need to sell 1,500 shares, but, you would pay taxes, so depending on tax rates, might need to sell 2,250 - 2,500+ shares

selling an appreciating asset to buy a depreciating asset.

In the last 18 months, MSTR has gone up 800%
In the first 12 months, the CAR will go down 30%

So rather than sell the MSTR, they would borrow against it, most banks and brokerages will give you liquidity against your equities (like bitcoin)

So borrow $600k against the MSTR at say 10% int

Use the $600k to get the car, but what I really got is a %0 down car, and only a $5,000 monthly payment

Now, I still have the MSTR going up at say 150%/yr, so in 12-24 months, it's gone up enough to pay the car off, if I wanted to sell, better yet, just trade it in for a new model, and new payment.

Now...
- it costs you nothing out of pocket
- you still have the asset going up in value
- you lost no wealth to tax
- you only cover the $5k month, which is tax-deductible

now... can you afford to spend $5k/month?

if not, you shouldn't but it, but... you could borrow an extra $120k, and put it into an interest reserve account, and make the payments for the next 2 years.

Anyway... this is how the wealthy 1% would do it because they don't use credit like you do.

They don't sell assets to spend the money
they don't borrow because they can't afford things

They do borrow because it's cheaper to use someone else's money instead of their own

[eye zen hour 🥶 @eyezenhour]

The macro legend @RaoulGMI's Sui Basecamp speech was pure Alpha

He laid out the most bullish case for crypto I've ever seen

It changes EVERYTHING about how you should position for the next 12 months

10 staggering revelations: 🧵

[Alex Becker 🍊🏆🥇 @ZssBecker]

If you do not consistently take big leaps of faith bets on yourself, sacrifice and struggle..

You will likely be poor and have a bad life.

It’s as simple as this.

Figure out exactly what you want, cut everything that’s not it and take on risk and challenges till it happens.

Or else…life will decide for you.

The things you wanted will be the sacrifice.

You will get the returns of taking zero risk (aka nothing).

And you will fail to grow due to never being challenged or struggling to reach a higher level of you.

The result is a life full of nothing you wanted, no money/success and being undeveloped weak person.

That’s terrifying. Do everything you can to avoid it.

[Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien]

10 GMI macro and crypto charts to help you cut through the noise and see the bigger picture…

Weekend macro chart storm sorted!

1/10

[Koroush AK @KoroushAK]

"The Vertical" Fibonacci Strategy:

$TRUMP, $WIF, $POPCAT, $BRETT, $PEPE, $PAAL, $ONDO, etc.

How to make money trading vertical altcoins:

[naiive @naiivememe]

We should have listen to this guy

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

15/x This bull run will reward those who take calculated risks. By following proven narratives and diversifying strategically, I’m positioning for $1M+ in gains.

Remember, you can track my portfolio and every make I move here: 👉 https://t.co/lBhajqZDpv

What’s your portfolio strategy for 2025? Let me know below 👇

[Art Kitchener @ArtKitchener]

@elliotrades Yaaa broski LFG!!! Let er buck!

[Art Kitchener @ArtKitchener]

@elliotrades 6 yaa buddy

[Art Kitchener @ArtKitchener]

@elliotrades Yaaa buddy!!!

[Alex Becker 🍊🏆🥇 @ZssBecker]

Saturday 3am.

A simple understanding that will make your rich AF in 5 years OR ruin your life.

In 5 years you will have to deal with the results of your actions today.

The bad habits, failed commitments, lack of risks taken, hard choices not made and comfort zones you stay in to that seem small now will COMPOUND to DEFINE the life you have in 5 years.

It's the little things you do daily that take you backwards or KEEP you where you that seem harmless.

Oh I'll keep my drinking & smoking habits. BALANCE RIGHT?

Oh I'll take risks later in life. I HAVE TIME.

Oh I'll work on my health & appearance later. I'M YOUNG.

I'll keep my silly pointless habits like gaming, social media scrolling etc. THEY ARN'T THAT BAD BALANCE!!!

I'll keep focusing on 20 different things, stay unoptimized and half way serious about things. THINGS WILL WORK OUT.

I'll learn new things, put myself out there with women, master my trade, be in hyper focus mode LATER...STESS IS BAD, STOP BEATING MYSELF UP.

Next thing you know 5 years have past and you are RIGHT where you started.

Except : Instead of having things figured out and having excess time to enjoy the wealth and man you've evolved into...

You are just a MUCH older version of yourself who is now MUCH farther behind his peers with LESS time STILL trying to figure it out n make it to your potential.

You will wake up in a deeper pit built around your comfort that is HARDER to get out of then what you are in now. You will build MOMENTUM in the wrong direction.

Your situation will be infinitely harder to right and more dire than it is now.

This is 99% of peoples lives.

You will watch the measuring stick of life slowly start to get set in in stone. Choose not to sacrifice and you will slowly watch men you were once on level with leave you completely behind n hit the potentials you wanted for yourself.

The momentum of mediocracy most people build becomes so steep that they have no home of turning it around.

Most will have this realization as they hit and grow past 30. Most when they have this realize they are so far behind that their isn't even a reason to bother. They just accept a life of "what if" and regret.

All due to the little choices. The pointless bad habits we keep. The risks we avoid. The sacrifices and commitments we won't make.

No one looks back and wishes "I wish I gamed, drank, netflixed and coasted more".

No one looks back n thinks "I wish I had conserved my money and protected by ego more n avoid those risk".

It's always "Why did I waste so much time on such unimportant things. Why didn't I go harder n take bigger shots. I hate that I such lesser than the man I once wanted to be".

People end up looking back at 35, 40,45,50 realizing they sacrificed everything important to them in life for SMALL meaningless comforts. They failed to commit so they could keep things that are worthless to them in their life.

Comfort is a subtle killer of men. It will take from you everything without you even noticing. Our brain is not made to think long term. It's not worrying about you in 5 years. Only logical self aware you can do that.

Don't drink the poison. Don't let yourself live with blinders on.

Things absolutely will not work out.

Your potential will not be met. You will absolutely get older and have to pay the price for your lack of commitment later. Fail to commit and you will live a life of feeling stuck, out of time and locked into regret.

It will be SO much more painful that giving up those worthless things and taking the risk now.

Don't dilly daddle. There's a loaded gun full of pain, regret, embarrassment and suffering pointed at your head right now. It just goes off deceptively slow allowing you to forget its there.

But it's there and it will 100% kill your life's potential.

Live in fear of it.

[Art Kitchener @ArtKitchener]

@kylechasse FREE ALPHA

[Art Kitchener @ArtKitchener]

@kylechasse ❤️