At this point @rookisaacman and @Shift4 management can buyback the whole company.
Hedge funds shorting the stock have no souls and I hope that the company proves the market wrong and burn the shorts altogether.
@tlaubers I'm with you all the way and I believe that you and the team will execute flawlessly. You do not deserve this treatment by the market.
Do what you believe is best for the company and in the longterm I hope everyone of us who own shares of $FOUR will be massively rewarded🙏
Not sure if they know more than any one of us knows. Everything is public information and we all have access to it.
They just bet against a company that is leveraged and want it to fail even though the company is good, profitable and has insider alignment with shareholders.
Shorts can burn altogether for all I care.
@CarioCapital But the convertibles have now been paid for with the new SOFR +2% 750M loan no? What’s the point in hedging now? There’s no more risk to future dilution
Insane!! @Shift4 moves over $200B a year in payment volume and they are now settling stablecoins on Polygon.
payments are booming on Polygon. stacking wins after wins! 💪
Alright so it turns out yesterday's move on $FOUR wasn't just another dead cat bounce. There's actually something behind it this time.
Shift4 just announced a $750M term loan to prefund the $632M convertible notes due August 2027. Fourteen months early. Both S&P and Moody's affirmed the ratings and called it proactive management.
Why does this matter?
Because the single biggest short thesis just died. Every bear on this stock has been pointing at that convert saying "how are they going to pay it." Well, now we know. It's done. That question is off the table.
And honestly I think this bounce might actually stick. The previous four bounces all faded because nothing fundamental had changed. This time something did.
The largest near-term risk just got removed. There's $118M in excess cash from the deal. And we're five weeks out from Q2 earnings which is the real catalyst.
Here's what caught my eye in the S&P report though. Their own base case — not management's numbers, not mine, the credit agency's own conservative forecast — projects EBITDA growing from $964M to $1.3B by 2028. That's a 16% CAGR.
Free cash flow from $374M to $613M. That's a 28% CAGR. And leverage dropping from 5.7x to 3.9x.
Nearly 30% annual free cash flow growth for three years. From the rating agency. Using conservative assumptions. While the stock sits at $44.
Oh and one more thing — S&P specifically noted that Shift4's in-person commerce model "mitigates risk of AI disruption." In a market that's punishing every software name on AI fear, that's worth paying attention to.
Biggest bear thesis dead. Credit agencies forecasting growth. Earnings in five weeks.
I like where this is headed.
https://t.co/Qa3O7kdTIv
Shift4 $FOUR FinX shareholders talking about a short squeeze when the stock is just up 10%
Talk to me about a short squeeze when this stock is at least above $100