Arvi

Statistician. PhD from @UofTStatSci, postdoc from @Princeton. Mostly tweet about sports

[Arvi @arvi]

@JonathanWillis I know little about the oilers PK, but if they had a consistent set of players who took the first PK shift, these numbers are useless, because PK2 mostly only comes out if PK1 did their jobs and were able to get a clear.

[Arvi @arvi]

@TheStalwart yes, across a variety of sports. Lots of studies indicating it’s more predictive of future goals than past goals are

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@jtbourne The expected outcome from 9oa is much less than Eklund is right now, IMO. And the upside case isn’t even that much greater.

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@crosstman I said nothing about supporting Carney or his policies. But him being catty about his MPs is a nothing burger.

[Arvi @arvi]

I’m sorry, is this supposed to make me dislike Carney?

[Canada Proud @WeAreCanProud]

#BREAKING: In yet another hot mic incident, Mark Carney is caught insulting HIS OWN MPs, telling the visiting Croatian prime minister Andrej Plenkovic that they're just "useful for votes."

He then makes another comment about his cabinet ministers, but the comments from the Croatian prime minister he was responding to is inaudible, so the context is difficult to make out.

Regardless, it shows yet more contempt that Carney has for Canada's representative democracy. He'd like to have all the power in his own hands.

[Arvi @arvi]

@jaycaspiankang Nash and Luka in particular are famous playoff risers. Brunson G5 is an all time game, but for large chunks of the series he wasn’t particularly great. I just disagree that being the best player on a deep title team immediately vaults one to this level, regardless of the context.

[Arvi @arvi]

@Merridew__ Side note: wouldn’t basically anyone choose to own Anthropic if they were able to? I am sure this guy is massively impressive in many ways, but having an in to buying one of the biggest private companies in the world is not the reason why, IMO.

[Arvi @arvi]

@jakebeleafs Also, if you could guarantee Artemi Panarin at #1 overall, I feel like you’d jump at that in basically any non McDavid year.

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@neerajadeshp Do you feel Trump has furthered your goals on the axes that you cared about?

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@Afinetheorem @ryancbriggs Similarly, for tax environments, Boston, Chicago, LA, and Anaheim have all won in the last 20 years. None have favourable tax environments as far as I know.

[Arvi @arvi]

@Afinetheorem @ryancbriggs The reason Canadian teams haven’t won isn’t because the fanbases are strong even if they don’t. The same applies to Detroit and Boston, both of whom have had much success during the Canadian drought.

[Arvi @arvi]

@MostlyMonkey I somewhat disagree. I’d reframe this as the world belonging to people with conviction. Conviction can arise through your examples, but also the opposite (leaving a job because you want something different, going to grad school to open up a *particular* desired career, etc).

[Arvi @arvi]

@JFreshHockey Which meant that they weren’t putting up margins against opponents.

He’s obviously had very good series before (OTT ‘25, TB 22 and 23), but it’s simply incorrect to say that he’s played at a level worth his contract in the postseason until this year. Which was always possible!

[Arvi @arvi]

@JFreshHockey I think it’s a bit naive to say that Marner was always doing this in the playoffs from a look at his xGF% and GF%.
1. The Leafs PP often dried up in the postseason, which is partially his responsibility
2. The ratios obscure that he (and Matthews) played a super low event style

[Arvi @arvi]

@fksambennett @politicstcan It would be a fun trade that has 0% chance of happening, sadly

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@fksambennett @politicstcan Yeah, obviously, the big thing is cap efficiency there. If McKenna hits, you get him for 7 years of nearly guaranteed great value.

[Arvi @arvi]

@politicstcan Combination of people sleeping on Thomas, and the optimism around very good prospects.

FWIW, if it was 1OA for Fox, I’d be super interested, esp if NYR also took on short term salary there.

[Arvi @arvi]

@Noahpinion @littmath I’m a longtime reader of your work, Noah. You’re being incredibly, unnecessarily rude, and are consistently guilty of being far more snarky to others than Daniel was to you.

[Arvi @arvi]

@NateDuncanNBA The disrespect to Cavs / Raptors game 4