Arvi

Statistician. PhD from @UofTStatSci, postdoc from @Princeton. Mostly tweet about sports

[Arvi @arvi]

@neerajadeshp Do you feel Trump has furthered your goals on the axes that you cared about?

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@Afinetheorem @ryancbriggs Similarly, for tax environments, Boston, Chicago, LA, and Anaheim have all won in the last 20 years. None have favourable tax environments as far as I know.

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@Afinetheorem @ryancbriggs The reason Canadian teams haven’t won isn’t because the fanbases are strong even if they don’t. The same applies to Detroit and Boston, both of whom have had much success during the Canadian drought.

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@MostlyMonkey I somewhat disagree. I’d reframe this as the world belonging to people with conviction. Conviction can arise through your examples, but also the opposite (leaving a job because you want something different, going to grad school to open up a *particular* desired career, etc).

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@JFreshHockey Which meant that they weren’t putting up margins against opponents.

He’s obviously had very good series before (OTT ‘25, TB 22 and 23), but it’s simply incorrect to say that he’s played at a level worth his contract in the postseason until this year. Which was always possible!

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@JFreshHockey I think it’s a bit naive to say that Marner was always doing this in the playoffs from a look at his xGF% and GF%.
1. The Leafs PP often dried up in the postseason, which is partially his responsibility
2. The ratios obscure that he (and Matthews) played a super low event style

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@fksambennett @politicstcan It would be a fun trade that has 0% chance of happening, sadly

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@fksambennett @politicstcan Yeah, obviously, the big thing is cap efficiency there. If McKenna hits, you get him for 7 years of nearly guaranteed great value.

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@politicstcan Combination of people sleeping on Thomas, and the optimism around very good prospects.

FWIW, if it was 1OA for Fox, I’d be super interested, esp if NYR also took on short term salary there.

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@Noahpinion @littmath I’m a longtime reader of your work, Noah. You’re being incredibly, unnecessarily rude, and are consistently guilty of being far more snarky to others than Daniel was to you.

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@NateDuncanNBA The disrespect to Cavs / Raptors game 4

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@JeffVeillette Feel like it’s really weird to have strong opinions on basically any AGM. Can make some guesses about Pridham, but they did a bunch of smart stuff and dumb stuff (cap wise) with him on the staff, so who can really say.

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@JeffVeillette Off the top of my head:
1. 2022 G6 Tampa
2. 2025 G6 Florida
3. 2020 G4 Columbus
4. 2024 G2 Boston

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New podcast! @ATFulemin and I chat about the Leafs' draft lottery win, and the hires of John Chayka and Mats Sundin.

https://t.co/Mi8deaXFq1

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@PeterLeafsFan @_knilanderthews I think that’s reasonable. I wouldn’t be upset at all if they took McKenna on that basis. But I don’t think it’s unreasonable to take Stenberg either

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@TheLeafZone44 Big minute player on a genuinely good SHL team with the team winning his minutes pretty handily. Seems like he processes the game at a really high level, and is great along the boards / on the forecheck.
Seems like a guy with great offense who will move the puck the right way

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With the caveat that I know nothing about prospects, and have watched one (1) video about them each, I like Stenberg over McKenna.

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@JFreshHockey @Chaplaooo His moves or the article? ( genuine question, not trying to be snarky)