Yinka Asafa

Economist, Financial Analyst & Public Policy commentator

[Lady K @KemPatriot]

📌

#KemKem

[Nairametrics @Nairametrics]

Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) Plc has announced an interim dividend of N1.30 per ordinary share for the six months ended June 30, 2026, after posting a record first-half performance driven by strong market activity, improved operating leverage, and higher contributions from its investee companies.

[Presidency Nigeria @NGRPresident]

How President Tinubu is Redrawing the South-east Political Map.

By Tunde Rahman, Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media and Special Duties, is the Director of Communications, Renewed Hope Ambassadors.

@tunderahmanu

[NBER @nberpubs]

New data on bank runs reveals that poor fundamentals are key for whether runs lead to bank failure and have severe consequences for the broader economy, from Sergio A. Correia, @StephanLuck, and @EmilVerner https://t.co/FcPwsDRu16

[Àlúbàríkà 🇳🇬 @Iyoaiye_]

While congratulating the @OfficialAPCNg on the successful inauguration of its Campaign Council and also congratulating our incoming Governor of Osun State ahead of what many believe will be a resounding victory at the polls, I believe it is important to make a humble observation.

People like @OgbeniDipo, who has consistently been at the forefront of promoting and campaigning for the APC gubernatorial candidate in Osun State on this platform, deserved serious consideration for inclusion on that list.

Through his tireless advocacy and unwavering commitment, many APC supporters across the country regardless of location or personal connection to the candidate have become more aware of the Osun governorship election and have actively supported the campaign online.

His dedication, consistency and passion for the party's success have undoubtedly contributed to strengthening the APC's visibility and support base on social media.

Campaign councils should always consider reserving a few positions for grassroots social media advocates who work tirelessly for the party, often without recognition or expectation of reward.

Appreciating such loyal and committed supporters not only acknowledges their sacrifices but also inspires others to contribute even more to the party's growth and electoral success.

I respectfully urge the leadership of our great party not to overlook these dedicated foot soldiers whose efforts continue to advance the APC's cause every day.

@nentawe1 @DrSRJ_ @Morka2Felix should pls take note☝️

[Manifest_Lord @Manifest_Lord]

THE MORE §€X A COUPLE HAS... THE MORE MONEY, AND MOTIVATION THEY TEND TO HAVE

Here's why: 🪡👇

[Mustafa @oprydai]

a markov chain is one of the simplest ideas in probability, yet it explains an astonishing number of real systems. the central assumption is called the markov property: the future depends only on the present state, not on the path taken to get there. if you know where the system is now, its entire history no longer matters. that’s why it’s called a memoryless process. every step is just a probability of moving from one state to another, and those probabilities define how the system evolves over time.

once you represent those probabilities as a transition matrix, the mathematics becomes remarkably elegant. every multiplication by the matrix moves the system one step into the future. repeat the process enough times, and many markov chains converge to a stable probability distribution, where the long term behavior becomes predictable even though every individual transition is random. this simple framework powers everything from google’s original pagerank algorithm and weather forecasting to speech recognition, genetics, finance, robotics, and reinforcement learning.

the deeper lesson is that uncertainty doesn’t always mean unpredictability. individual events may be random, but the system as a whole often follows a clear mathematical structure. that’s a recurring theme across mathematics and engineering: stop trying to predict every single outcome, and instead model the process that generates those outcomes. once you understand the transition rules, seemingly chaotic behavior starts revealing stable patterns.

[Kirk Borne @KirkDBorne]

From @PacktDataML at https://t.co/WHTOJj6DGE

"Time Series Analysis with Python Cookbook”

Practical recipes for the complete time series workflow, from modern data engineering to advanced forecasting and anomaly detection [2nd Edition; 812 pages]

[Cambridge Economics @CambUP_Econ]

New! Solis-Garcia’s Macroeconomic Modeling | Preparing students for graduate study, the text introduces dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models through equilibrium theory.
Find out more: ☑️ https://t.co/zysnhJtRl6

[International and Monetary Economics Network @int_mon_econ]

Highly relevant!

"Beyond the First Bond: Market Access and Debt Dynamics in Frontier Economies" by Hasan Cetin and Sanan Mirzayev.

"We examine market entry and post-entry debt dynamics in Frontier Economies by grouping countries based on durability of market access using a two-step framework combining first Eurobond issuance with the reliance on private external creditors, validated through an unsupervised K-mean clustering. A discrete-time event LOGIT model finds that favorable global liquidity conditions and investor appetite open issuance windows for countries, but domestic pull factors—income, institutions, growth, and reserve buffers—ultimately determine success of market entry. Post-entry, Frontier Economies shift rapidly toward market borrowing, with looser fiscal stance as new financing source is unlocked. Along increased exposure to rollover and global financial cycle risks, debt decomposition exercise shows a worsening interest–growth differential and rising debt, driven mainly by primary deficits and higher interest burdens. Results underscore the need for credible medium-term fiscal frameworks, stronger debt management, and reserve buffers to manage the transition to market financing."

https://t.co/1JEmGevVZy

[International and Monetary Economics Network @int_mon_econ]

Very valuable!

Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi's VAR Toolbox

"The VAR Toolbox is a collection of open-source MATLAB routines for structural VAR analysis. The toolbox is designed around a single principle: every step of the SVAR pipeline—from reduced-form estimation to structural identification to inference—is implemented in plain, readable code with each computational step exposed and documented. The target audience is researchers and PhD students who want not only to run VAR models but to understand how they work. The handbook pairs each implementation with the underlying theory, it describes the algorithms and their properties, and connects the algebra to the code. Supported identification schemes include zero short-run restrictions, zero long-run restrictions, sign restrictions, narrative sign restrictions, external instruments (proxy SVARs), identification with exogenous variables, and combinations thereof. Outputs include impulse responses, forecast error variance decompositions, and historical decompositions. Local projections are covered as an alternative approach to estimating impulse responses, with a discussion of their relationship to VARs."

https://t.co/krnl3nlZJ8

[NBER @nberpubs]

Unstructured data, such as text and images, can be used to estimate dynamic equilibrium models and their structural parameters, from Sara Casella, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, @StephenEKHansen, Ryohei Oishi, and Minchul Shin https://t.co/GmayARsy4J

[Nigeria Newsdesk @NigeriaNewsdesk]

Nigeria discloses 17 states to experience flooding from July 21 to 27, 2026, see list - https://t.co/C9fXlrP7wR

[Arup Chatterjee @chatarup]

#Insurance is the substitute warming the bench of public policy.
Nobody notices it.
Until disaster strikes.
Then it scores the winning goal.
⚽🛡️🏆
"The Extra Man Scores: A World Cup Lesson for Insurance"
https://t.co/E9pwnXAIw6

[Paul Dickinson, Trust & Estate Planning SE Asia @Pauld22]

Check out the latest article in my newsletter: Beyond the Will: How Trust Structures Create Comprehensive Wealth Protection for Southeast Asian Entrepreneurs
https://t.co/dXsUk1Mc7r via @LinkedIn

[Nairametrics @Nairametrics]

Daily Currency Exchange Rate Update: 14th of July,2026

The naira saw mixed movements across markets today. If you’re holding forex, calculate how these shifts affect your pocket, what’s your gain or loss in just 24 hours?

Visit https://t.co/gkBDJvhP9G for more updates.

[Kalu Aja @FinPlanKaluAja1]

Today’s pick is GTCO, a leading Nigerian financial holding company (parent of Guaranty Trust Bank) with operations across Africa and the UK. It’s a major player in commercial banking.

Key Fundamentals (as of mid-2026 data):
• Current Price: ~₦126 NGN
• P/E Ratio: ~5.35 (attractive valuation)
• EPS: ~₦23.55 (strong earnings per share)
• ROE: ~25% (excellent efficiency in generating profits from equity)
• Dividend Yield: ~10% (a true dividend standout)
• Strong earnings growth and healthy payout trends. Debt levels are manageable for a bank; the Price-to-Book ratio is reasonable at around 1.3x.

Sector & Position: In Nigeria’s competitive banking sector, GTCO is winning market share through digital innovation, regional expansion, and solid risk management. Banking benefits from economic growth but faces inflation, regulation, and currency risks.

Commentary: GTCO blends growth-champion qualities (earnings momentum, expansion) with dividend-king reliability—perfect for long-term investors seeking both income and capital appreciation.

It’s more value-oriented than pure high-growth tech plays, given its reasonable multiples.

You can invest in GT via traditional brokers and @investbamboo

Not financial advice. Always do your own research or consult an advisor.

[Yinka Asafa @AsafaDauda]

@onu_slim …..NNPCL needed to consistently deliver naira-priced crude at volumes matching that appetite while managing its own dollar obligations to joint venture partners simultaneously…. The mismatch might be unsustainable for NNPC as well.

[Ayekooto @DeeOneAyekooto]

The PFIPC Scandal and the Urgent Reforms Required

By Tunde Rahman

When Prince Adeniyi Adeyemi Matthew walked into Phase III Section of the Federal Secretariat in Abuja with a forged letter and emerged with an office, signage, and a semblance of government legitimacy, he did not act alone.

That is the uncomfortable truth of the “Presidential Foreign Intervention Promotion Council” saga. Adeyemi has been charged with eight counts of fraud and forgery. But the bigger scandal is not one man’s alleged audacity. It is how a non-existent agency got close to N1.3bn in the 2026 budget, secured office space in the heart of government, hosted top government functionaries from Nigeria and abroad, and allegedly operated multiple accounts.

This is not a story about Chief of Staff Femi Gbajabiamila versus Prince Adeyemi. This is a story about systemic failure. And until the system is properly fixed, it is quite probable that the next Adeyemi is somewhere forging another letterhead.

There are several systemic breaches in the saga that public finance analysts and other commentators have already pointed out, but they nonetheless require restating. There is a failure of due diligence in budgeting. The 2026 Appropriation Act contained N1.3bn for the “Presidential Economic Advisory Council/PFIPC”.
The problem, however, is that PFIPC has no legal backing and was never established by the Federal Government.

Top sources in the National Assembly claim the allocation entered “through a backdoor arrangement” without budget defence. For whatever his statement is worth, Adeyemi, in his interview with social media influencer, VeryDarkMan, from his hideout, said he was detained for 23 days while the budget was being prepared. “I did not prepare or defend any budget, and nobody went to defend it on my behalf,” he said. That means the appropriation to the fake agency bypassed the committees that should have asked probing questions such as: "Which agency is this?" What is its mandate? Who are its staff members?

Since the rebirth of democracy over 27 years ago, Nigeria’s budget process has been criticised for “insertions” and “undue inflation”. PFIPC is now the clearest example of why that matters. A ghost agency should not be able to get real money. If the Budget Office, House of Representatives, and Senate all missed this, our first line of fiscal defence needs a long, hard look.

There is also the issue of appointment and office verification. Adeyemi allegedly used a forged appointment letter bearing Gbajabiamila’s purported signature and counterfeit presidential letterhead to present himself as DG. Gbajabiamila’s lawyers insist he has “never had any contact whatsoever with Adeyemi”. Yet somehow, that letter was “accepted at the civil service headquarters without adequate verification”. It secured him an office in the Federal Secretariat for over a year. Up until this month, a sign for PFIPC was still up, directing visitors to the “council’s purported office” inside the Ministry of Health wing.

Just think about that. The administrative hub of the Federal Civil Service could not detect a fake appointment. If letterheads and signatures of top government functionaries are that easy to forge and accept, then no MDA is safe. Tomorrow, it could be a fake NCC or NDDC director. And next week, possibly a fake university VC.

The third system failure is about banking and due diligence. Adeyemi allegedly opened an account with the Central Bank of Nigeria for the non-existent agency. Adeyemi himself asked the most damning question in a viral video: “The same acclaimed non-existent agency has a domiciliary account, a pounds sterling account and a Treasury Single Account, all domiciled in the Central Bank of Nigeria. Is it even possible to open an account with fictitious documents in a commercial bank in Nigeria today, let alone at the CBN?”....(1/2)