Here's how you GROW A PAIR and BUY Bitcoin dips in a bull market. π§΅π§΅
No really, I'm sick of people complaining.
Everybody wants dips.
Then when the dip does come along, they get fearful.
When the time comes they lack the balls to execute. So I'm going to tell you how.
I backtested @TTrades_edu Silver Bullet Strategy variation ππ
I URGE you to read the results and notes below.
These are the results and it's NOT what I expected (with proof).
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First off, I have nothing but respect for @TTrades_edu - as far as I know he's a solid trader and his videos are often extremely helpful β β
Secondly, I believe that you are probably supposed to
add your own twists to it as there are many arbitrary and subjective things in his video - a couple are mentioned below.
- How much of a displacement is good? (A lot of "not super convincing to me" "that looks aggressive enough" "I don't really like this price action")
- How far above/below highs/lows does he want to see price go before entry?
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However, I have a problem with a number of people putting "mechanical strategies" on youtube with INACCURATE results & INCOMPLETE backtestsββ
By no means is this a personal shot or am I trying to start beef. Maybe I got something wrong. π€·ββοΈπ€·ββοΈ
For those who may have gotten different results, I'm open to discussion.
This also doesn't mean that I'm a better trader or have a better strategy.
πThis is simply information for those who take things at FACE VALUE without really backtesting. π
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1β£ Summary
Date: January 2020 - May 2023
Winrate: 33.24% (119/239)
Strategy: Ttrade's silver bullet variation (on his youtube).
2β£ Detailed Statistics
Account started with $10000 and made is to $13207 by the end. Equity curve topped off at $16700 around February 2022.
I've attached an image showing the month over month ROI for this strategy.
There are several good months but just as many bad months, especially after 2020. There is too much inconsistency.
If you're trying to get funded - 32% over 4 years is NOT the way to do so. It's simply not enough especially with many prop firms still having time limits.
The average RR is 2.22. With the winrate, it's almost as if you can't miss a day of trading because you might miss the win (only appears 32% of the time).
The backtests done in his video are only over a few weeks. I'm not saying they're cherrypicked but it's not enough of a sample size to go off of.
3β£ Notes
1. The primary objective of the model is a raid of the 9am hourly candle high/low and a reversal to the other end.
2. I personally like the idea behind the model and was excited for it because I frame a lot of my bias based on previous candle ranges (especially 1D and 1W timeframes).
Unfortunately, given that this is a reversal model it's extremely tough to get it right.
3. Because the entry model can be any one of a number of ICT's methods (the main constant being displacement), these results may NOT be 100% accurate.
4. The main judging criteria was if price was able to reverse to the other end of the 9am candle. Truth be told, this RARELY happened showing how difficult it is.
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This primary purpose of this post is to emphasize the importance of backtesting.
The model is extremely interesting to me but there is something missing for it to be more effective maybe SMT or Daily Bias.
π You are responsible for your own trades π
Trade and backtest like you understand it β€οΈ
I've played basketball for 17 years and counting ππ
Even got the chance to play professionally a few times πΈπΈ
What I can say is that what I learnt on the court can be directly applied to all aspects of life π―
Here are my 5 key takeaways π§΅π§΅
Before entering ANY trade, you NEED the following:
1. Entry - Where do you plan to enter your trade?
2. Stop Loss - Where is your trade idea invalidated?
3. Take Profit - What's your target?
EVERY trade setup needs these 3 things - otherwise you're likely gambling.