Asset Alchemist

cross-assets | journal | personal portfolio construction | veteran roundtriper | slow road out of the matrix

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

🔸Fiscal easing in China and Europe.
🔸Job cuts in US, tariff, and geopol should dampen inflation risk.
🔸AI sentiment catching a cold.
🔸Major risk to long $TLT would be Trump tax cuts?
🔸Long $GLD; Probably $BTC.
🔸Long $KWEB $CSI > $DAX $SXXP. But both probably makes sense.

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

@DefiLesser Big if true

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

$HIMS:
🔸MS expecting FY2025e EPS at $1.27 based on management revenue & EBITDA guidance.
🔸Roughly 30x 2025e PE, with 60% revenue growth.
🔸Mag7 at similar FwdPE, but with ~10% rev growth.
🔸MS has FY2026/27e at 15%, which is arguably low if HIMS can execute new channels.

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

A shallow look under the $KWEB hood.

🔸Caveat that there are many ways to calculate this, and this is based on CapIQ CY GAAP aggregate (not per share) estimates.
🔸 Surprised $BABA $TECHY forwards are this weak. Bloomberg will probably have stronger numbers, but will have to check.
🔸But based on what I'm seeing here, maybe China's re-rating doesnt have that much room to go, unless growth expectations climb meaningfully.
🔸 $KWEB revenue growth estimates lag behind $QQQ, albeit $NVDA is the one holding the numbers up.

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

🔸CN is tricky short-term. $HSI historically has very different price action compared to US, rallying very hard in a short amount of time.
🔸But if I were to pick a time period historical ref for HSI, it would be ~2004.
🔹Post-SARS epidemic.
🔹China joined WTO in 2001 + reforms + capital flow.
🔹Perception of China being a global growth engine.
🔸Maybe it'll be a short-lived bull trap, but risk-reward still looks favorable vs US-centric AI story.

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

Market participants' certainty about the AI capex spend + DOGE job cuts top of mind at the moment, which probably means..
🔸US large cap chop/down with $QQQ underperf.
🔸US small cap or super-growth e.g. $ARKK offered.
🔸Crypto largely still in dead-cat mode.
🔸 $TLT bid.
🔸 $GLD $BTC unclear.

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

My guess for week ahead reaction post tariffs:
- $TLT and $GLD bid.
- Crypto: $BTC probably hold up well, $ETH $XRP too; Most <$5bn crypto dead-cat bounce at best.
- Equities: $KWEB bid; $DJI $SPX offer; $QQQ choppy, but probably a bid excluding $NVDA.

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

Gold hitting another ATH. No surprises, its just an eventuality. It'll keep chugging and chopping, but that is what we get in a fiat world. Biggest risk is a liquidity event (or incredibly hawkish Fed) that sends both risk and safe-havens into liquidation mode. $GLD $XAU

🔸2022 Fed Hike
🔸1Q20 Covid
🔸2H08 GFC
🔸2H98 LTCM & Russia
🔸4Q87 Black Monday

Not a believer of silver $SLV, as I generally find that holding the top dog within peer-groups work well enough for the long-haul. Also, while the safe-haven concept overlaps between $SLV $GLD to an extent, fundamentally some differences between risk characteristics, pure-play, flows, institutional mandates etc.

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

Probability of occurring aside, a US sovereign wealth fund would probably be bullish for $XAU $GLD $BTC even if not included in mandate, particularly if funded by debt.

🔸US does not have persistent fiscal surplus (tax) nor FX reserves (reserve currency). So that mainly leaves (i) oil-based, (ii) asset sales or (iii) debt issuance.

🛢️Oil-Based
🔸Increase federal royalties & redirect to an SWF (instead of to the Treasury) e.g. Norway
🔸Energy windfall tax e.g. for sales >$100bbl
🔸SPR sales to seed e.g. Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015.
🔸Either way, big oil will fuss and congressional support would be iffy at best. And cannibalizes off potential tax revenue anyway.

🏦Asset Sales
🔸Selling land, privatizing assets, natural resource rights etc could fund, but again cannibalizing off fiscal revenue of a country that is in persistent deficit.

💵Debt Issuance
🔸One of the more likely funding methods imo. Worsening the deficit will have push-back, but some mental gymnastics and appropriate timing could see this SWF seeded.
🔸Issuing US sovereign debt to buy (probably) US equities. Smells like BoJ buying Japanese ETFs. Nice.
🔸But also.. currency debasement? Financial asset inflation? Death of secondary market liquidity? Debt and equity price doom loop?

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

@Thilexlol And the (part) owner's chart beats just about every crypto

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

Bingo card review:
🔸 $GLD $BTC held up well. ✅
🔸 $ETH got nuked much harder than everyone expected I'm sure.❌
🔸 $XRP too imo. Both and crypto saved by the tariff delay.❌
🔸 $KWEB held up really well, with the HK counterpart https://t.co/ZAy8b0AUFW closing positive during Asia-hours. Probably for all the reasons mentioned.✅
🔸 $QQQ did well by all accounts too, but surprised that $SPX $DJI held up as well as it did pre-tariff reversal given the exposure to MX CA input costs etc. ✅❌
🔸 $TLT nothing burger, but up anyways.✅

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

Agree again, same idea as the previous repost.

[Cred @CryptoCred]

If you missed the wick, don't force trades.

The better options are:

1. Wick refill - rebidding supports as the market drifts back towards the bottom ~1/3 of the wick.

2. Reclaim - buying strength away from the wick, reducing the likelihood that it drifts back to the low and allowing you to define your risk using the reclaimed level (closer to you), not the wick itself (invalidation 1000 miles away).

In simple terms: you want to be doing business close to the wick, or far away from it at a different level.

Don't diddle in the middle.

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

Agree that bottoming is a process, and there is a tendency to revisit close to the wick levels. Personally, taking a position at this point on a post-nuke bounce risks me being chopped up mentally and on P&amp;L.

[fejau @fejau_inc]

Just a piece of advice here for people trying to buy the dip

When we see liquidations of this magnitude, there’s a couple of things that often happen:

1) The classic v shape reversal higher only really happens in a perp driven cascade due to high funding rates in a structurally bullish trend

2) During major wipeouts like this, we typically see the main move down, and then settle like 40% above wherever the bottom wick was. Then a small bounce from shorts covering, and then chop around for a while

3) we then typically see a retest of that bottom wick from the initial cascade in the coming days

I say all that to say: take a deep breath. You don’t need to throw everything in one big hero trade. You will have plenty of time to buy this wipeout and capitulation.

Hope everyone’s doin alright!

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

$ETH at 200 week MA. Would be a level to bid for a bounce imo

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

A bit more on the $KWEB bid idea.
🔸In terms of tariff dollars, the impact of CA MX 2025 >> CN 2018.
🔸If cost of both final goods and inputs for US manufacturing goes up when the two neighbours are tariffed..
🔸..as a package, does this make CN impact even more muted (or even positive)?

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

Kneejerk down, but guessing $QQQ $KWEB will catch a bid through the week on some combination of narratives:
🔸2H24 left tail was 20% universal 60% CN, so 10% is relatively light.
🔸Removal of de minimis exemption and 10% tariff will probably be easily absorbed by US consumers and CN exporters. Alternatives will still not be more competitive (e.g. CN EVs vs Teslas after tariffs).
🔸Focus less directly on CN, albeit indirect trade flows via MX CA are targets now.
🔸$KWEB US sales exposure is small. Have not run numbers in a while but probably single digit.
🔸Rates lower a positive for long duration $QQQ, which is far less exposed to tariffs too.
🔸Fed won't turn hawkish on supply/tariff-driven inflation, and will probably be looking through to potential economic slowdown.

That being said, things will look bad for US when it appears these nations aren't going to backdown. imo, particularly unlikely in CA's case.

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

Kneejerk down, but guessing $QQQ $KWEB will catch a bid through the week on some combination of narratives:
🔸2H24 left tail was 20% universal 60% CN, so 10% is relatively light.
🔸Removal of de minimis exemption and 10% tariff will probably be easily absorbed by US consumers and CN exporters. Alternatives will still not be more competitive (e.g. CN EVs vs Teslas after tariffs).
🔸Focus less directly on CN, albeit indirect trade flows via MX CA are targets now.
🔸$KWEB US sales exposure is small. Have not run numbers in a while but probably single digit.
🔸Rates lower a positive for long duration $QQQ, which is far less exposed to tariffs too.
🔸Fed won't turn hawkish on supply/tariff-driven inflation, and will probably be looking through to potential economic slowdown.

That being said, things will look bad for US when it appears these nations aren't going to backdown. imo, particularly unlikely in CA's case.

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

My guess for week ahead reaction post tariffs:
- $TLT and $GLD bid.
- Crypto: $BTC probably hold up well, $ETH $XRP too; Most <$5bn crypto dead-cat bounce at best.
- Equities: $KWEB bid; $DJI $SPX offer; $QQQ choppy, but probably a bid excluding $NVDA.

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

Thoughts on tariff impact on long rates $TLT:
+ Trump tariffs safe haven flows.
+ Offset some deficit concerns (for now).
+ Fed will weigh demand impact.
+ Fed will look-through supply/tariff driven inflation.

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

Said another way, most tokens wont survive between cycles. Fewer will breakeven (even with staking).

This is venture capital failure rate, without the right-tail returns to offset losses.

Albeit this is peak-to-present, rather than mid- or low- vintages.

$BTC $ETH $SOL

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

Crypto market cap table from the 2021 BTC peak.

- Half the tickers are no longer top 100 (many probably worthless).

- 39 are still top 100 but negative price change.

- 10 are still top 100 with positive price change (ex-USD): $BTC $BNB $XRP $DOGE $XLM $TRX $DAI $LEO $OKB $XDC

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

Crypto market cap table from the 2021 BTC peak.

- Half the tickers are no longer top 100 (many probably worthless).

- 39 are still top 100 but negative price change.

- 10 are still top 100 with positive price change (ex-USD): $BTC $BNB $XRP $DOGE $XLM $TRX $DAI $LEO $OKB $XDC

[Asset Alchemist @AssetAlchemistX]

Feels like folks holding with targets of
$BTC $120k-$150k ($3tr mc)
$ETH ~$5k ($600bn)
$SOL $300-400 ($200bn)

With target gains of 20-70%, is the r/r attractive compared to $TLT $KWEB or single-names like $NOV $HIMS $AMD?

Albeit $BTC riding a diff narrative vs large cap crypto.