Ati Ranjan

Entrepreneur | Research & Consulting | Macro Analysis | Corporate Finance

[N. K. Singh @NKSingh_MP]

The ‘A’ is back after 35+ years. JCRA has upgraded India to ‘A-’. Recognition of India’s growth momentum, macro stability, deep structural reforms, and the strength of Centre-State partnership.
@PMOIndia @nsitharaman @FinMinIndia @DrSJaishankar 1/2

[Neelkanth Mishra @neelkanthmishra]

As expected, with the fiscal headwinds fading and monetary headwinds (falling credit growth till 1HFY26) becoming tailwinds (credit growth accelerating), GDP growth is surprising on the upside, and should help push up consensus trend-growth estimates to 7%-plus. That is, with a neutral fiscal and monetary policy, the economy should still register 7.5% growth.

In this light, I was shocked to see the ill-educated and egregiously wrong claims made by some that if the 'original' base of June-2025 quarter was used, growth in the June-2026 quarter would be much lower.

The new series introduced in Feb-2026 cleaned up the data and also significantly improved the methodology. For those who track this for a living (and I used to be one such till 45 days ago) - the downward revision in the base was known in March (see our note published on 1-Mar):
https://t.co/3KCHsbIUV9

As our note acknowledged, the new series increased credibility of estimates of real output.

That claim is so obviously wrong that several logical rebuttals have already been made. But bad information tends to travel further than good information, and so it is important to reiterate and reinforce the argument.

That such claims got traction is itself surprising, given that easy-to-track and not-possible-to-fudge indicators of economic activity have been so robust. While June-quarter data was strong, that momentum has picked up:
- personal vehicle (cars, SUVs) dispatches grew 35% YoY in August despite just 9% growth in exports. Even two-wheeler growth is now >20% (though helped by strong exports).
- And if that was consumption, commercial vehicle dispatches grew >40%.
- tax collection growth has picked up meaningfully. This is as real as it gets.
- Credit growth continues to surprise on the upside (albeit on a low base). Last year most believed the then-weak credit growth was a demand problem, whereas we steadfastly stated it was a supply issue - it has for now been addressed.
- indicators of construction are robust.

Hopefully, now there will be fewer people asking "why private sector investment is weak," given that there is clear evidence of investments.

That said, there is still slack in the economy, as seen in weak real-wage growth. It may take several quarters of above-trend growth for that slack to tighten, and bring back sticky inflation pressures.

[Shreya Arora @shreya_arora22]

Madam Italiano seems quite irritated after hearing Vande Mataram! But why? Don’t you like our national song? 🇮🇳

[Viktor @desishitposterr]

Glad people have the full video before these criminals deleted it.

Look at how Sonia gets rattled after first two stanzas of Vande Matram - literally pressuring to shut it down.

This is all being done to appease a vote bank, who had a veto on our polity, even after partition.

[Aravind @aravind]

An uninformed generation can be a potential national security risk. A misinformed generation IS A national security risk.

If the state doesn't flow its own information but allows misinformation to flow in its place by adversaries due to apathy, an entire generation is turned into a force for weakening the country.

This is what is happening in India now. Still there's time to arrest this.

Or by the 15th year of Modi govt, India would have done everything great in internal and external security, done all the right things in development, but lose its peace, prosperity, and stability to its own misinformed and misled youth.

[Jugeshinder Robbie Singh @jugeshinder]

Panic over a 4.70% Treasury yield is pure comedy.
An entire generation of money managers got addicted to the 2008–2021 Fed liquidity drip. They think zero interest rates are normal. They aren't.
It was an artificial anomaly that subsidized lazy capital and lazy bankers.
Look at the actual data. From 1990 to 2008—the most stable era of modern growth—the average 10-Year yield was 5.68% (median at ~5.35%).
We aren't in a crisis; we are returning to historical sanity. Capital finally has a cost again. If your business model requires the central bank to manipulate liquidity just for you to survive, you don’t have a business—you have a charity case.
Easy mode is over. Welcome back to reality.

[Tarun Raju @btarunr]

You can't fight Meta officially, and end up inviting market-access/free-speech legal disputes. They wargamed this. This worked against the government in Nepal.

Fight them like a resistance movement would. Get ISPs and cellular operators to throttle Meta's bandwidth by a factor of 20. Make it practically unusable though technically not banned. Keep everything unofficial, leave no papertrail. Adapt as they keep changing IPs and load-balancers of their CDN networks.

When they are using your institutions against you, you switch to unofficial and amorphous means to fight them.

[Navroop Singh @TheNavroopSingh]

The Communists i.e. Lefts virulent ideology of Marxism has killed more than any one else in Modern History. These are dictatorships not like the one you call in India.

So weigh your words carefully when you call Govt of India fascist, dictatorial or authoritarian. Dictators dont allow dissent, freedom of speech, courts, elections & right to abuse elected Prime Ministers !

Modi Government is rather one of the most democratic government unlike Nehru who trampled on Freedoms & Fundamental Rights by way of 1st Constitutional Amendment or Indira Gandhi who subverted the constitution to retain power during Emergency in 1975.

Even Left in Naxalists, Maoists, Communists dont believe in democracy. They only want to use constitution to capture power through street chaos, ideological subversion !

More on this in an article coming in a short while ! Lets decode this virulent ideology !

[Narendra Modi @narendramodi]

More strict actions against paper leaks to come in tomorrow’s Cabinet!

[Kirttan Shah @KirtanShahCFP]

90% posts i read on the Internet posting about the CJP, have 0 idea about the issue itself! I will not be wrong if i say 99% also.

It’s fashionable to share and comment on a trending topic but most don’t know that they don’t know anything!

Asking your government questions is surely your RIGHT but escalating it after having received the answer is agenda! It’s difficult to go against the heard but it’s time someone speaks up.

May 3- NEET examination. Within 4 days, the NTA detected fraud. The very next day, it informed the police. The investigation began. The Government cancelled the May 3 examination.

May 12 - The Ministry of Education filed a written complaint. The CBI registered the case. Special investigation team (SIT) were formed immediately.

May 15 - Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan addressed the nation. He apologised. Accepted moral responsibility. Announced the re-NEET schedule.

Then came the bigger announcement. From next year, Major national examinations would move towards
computer-based, multi-encrypted testing (CBT). A permanent solution.

June 21.
Fresh NEET examination conducted successfully.

July 16.
Results declared.

Meanwhile,
The CBI moved fast. Arrests began. 13 accused were behind bars.

Why did the matter escalate so much then? And let’s face the fact, is this the first time papers have leaked? But this is surely the first time the government addressed it so quickly & most national exams have moved to CBT so that this does not repeat in the future.

Now you might wonder what’s happening then, Let’s decode the motive!

The joke is on you if you think this is not politically motivated! Let’s talk about the 2 stars of this campaign Abhijeet Dipke and Sonam wangchuk

Abhijeet Dipke was associated with AAP between 2020 to 2023
Sonam’s father was a congress MP and you think this has nothing to do with politics?

Let’s talk about the motive now,

Ofcourse reviving failed political ambition is one but very importantly
FCRA (Foreign contribution Act) bill which is supposed to be tabled in this monsoon season

It’s a know fact how foreign elements fund India NGOs to stall India’s economic growth. Over the last few years a lot of NGO licenses have been cancelled because they have not been able to provide the source of their foreign funding in which one of them was Sonam’s NGO! But the problem so far was that when the license was cancelled the assets of the NGOs were not freezed and hence they were re using the assets to continue their activities is what the FCRA bill intends to stop! Once passed, the license and assets will be frozen if NGOs can’t prove the source of the funding

Now you will ask why would foreign elements fund NGOs and how do NGOs help them?

Latest example is your Nicobar project. The biggest reason why Iran is able to push US back in this war is because it controls the strait of Hormuz from where ~20% of the world’s crude move. India also has this strategic advantage in Nicobar because majority of chinas crude moves from there. So if we build Defense there and control it, will it not hurt China?

Now NGOs are others (you know whom) are funded to stop this from happening and stall India’s development.

So my friend there is a permanent solution offered to the paper leak problem and still if this matter is not getting solved please understand this is beyond paper leak.

Remember, when the cause has a supporter, you are in the right direction but when the cause has a sponsor, you know something is wrong!

I am with you that we should ask questions to the government & could the police situation had been better managed, absolutely a yes but let’s not get played by the vested narrative on the Internet

Also, this is not about CONGRESS, BJP or AAP, I speak because this is about India! I pay tax & vote as well most who don’t do any also have a problem.

Jai hind!

[Rajan Anandan @RajanAnandan]

India has 900 million monthly active users on the internet. 750m of us are daily active users. All digital infra - including payments - now in place. The average Indian internet user consumes 42 GB per user per month (up 600x over the past decade). With this giga scale, I am no longer surprised with what happened this morning. Met a team building in consumer AI in India. launched 6 months ago and already at Rs 100CR revenue run rate with 15% PAT, with a 6 person team. Most importantly, strong retention. This would have been impossible to imagine even a few years ago in India.

[Mohan Sinha 🇮🇳 @Mohansinha]

When he’s not freaking out on air, he makes a lot of sense.

[Smita Barooah @smitabarooah]

Ladies & gentlemen, this woman is a sitting MP. She sold her parliament password for petty favours.
She sat by as her party goons tyrannised the people of Bengal.
She's now trying to doxx an RAF personnel who was on duty. There's clearly no low that's too low for her.
Surely, trying to set the hounds after an officer, to cause her harm, is an offence?

[Harsh Gupta Madhusudan @harshmadhusudan]

Our republic runs via universal adult franchise, whereby every citizen can express their preferences for the next government. Democracy in India has deep roots. Many political parties have lost and won, and will continue to. India has the fairest elections amongst large countries, fairer than even America.

Not only that, there are constant state elections. Which are an ongoing indirect referendum on the central government. While losers in elections of late have started to blame unfair vote counting, no one seriously accepts those claims. The BJP government itself lost its simple majority in the last general elections.

At the same time, peaceful legal protests are completely legitimate. Having a demand that X must resign or Y must else there will be mobs causing security disturbances around Parliament or PM’s house etc is not legitimate and must be met with full force of the law.

While people have started saying blaming deep state or foreign hand is sounding stale - just because it sounds stale does not mean it is false. All recent elections show high popularity of the BJP. So what is obvious in US social media platforms is not necessarily what is true no matter what the vibe check says.

Winning elections in India means actually representing the complexity of this country - the most in the world - and then leading to provide solutions as well as taking tough decisions. Being strong and not bending to blackmail is part of it, yet being flexible enough is the other part. It is a judgment call with no perennial answer.

I support the elected government of India in carrying out its duties and the citizens who want to carry out peaceful protests. Any body who crosses that line must be shown that revolutions are no kitty parties indeed. And those who cross the line must accept the consequences.

[Ati Ranjan @AtiRanajn]

@manojkjhadu An elected representative is using sophistry to support mobocracy and anarchism!

[Ati Ranjan @AtiRanajn]

@AUThackeray A drowning man trying to clutch at a straw to remain relevant!

[Minhaz Merchant @MinhazMerchant]

Regime Change 2.0. Three layers:
First layer —protesting students create riotous situation, provoke police, cry brutality, death of democracy.
Second layer — opposition parties demand resignation of senior ministers including Amit Shah.
Third (invisible) layer — Pak, China, US.

[Navroop Singh @TheNavroopSingh]

I frankly dont care for this nautanki. Please sit peacefully at Jantar Mantar and keep protesting but if u take to streets in a bid overrun parliament then be ready to face the music at the hand of security forces.

For one month you protested peacefully, Govt gave u space at Jantar Mantar. In meanwhile RE-NEET was done and results were declared. You could have continued protesting but no you wanted to create Nepal and remove Modi then face the music.

But then CJP tried to make it political by making Arundhati Roy, Yogendra Yadav, AAP & leftist unions like AISA to take over for march to parliament. If you want to get into political activism and become tools for leftists communists then should be ready for consequences.

Accountability in democracy is fixed by Courts or through elections. You cant aim to achieved the goal of overthrowing elected government of India by a violent insurrection in name of student causes.

No sympathies for anyone as we the people have seen playbook of activism many times in past few years. Please stop blocking roads & highways they are made for law abiding citizens who want to work and earn for themselves. We dont want our livelihoods to be disrupted for your misplaced political activism.

[Harsh Gupta Madhusudan @harshmadhusudan]

Our public sphere is digital, even for the so-called mofussil towns. And it is completely controlled by US Big Tech, which as far as other countries go, is an extension of the US govt or state. The American people maybe by and large nice, the US constitution maybe great but the US explicitly sees India as a long-term threat only after China. Their serving officials have said as much.

It boggles the mind then that we have allowed our society, our politics, our very emotions to be manipulated by foreign addictive algorithms. Our economies to be hollowed out by others' scale, though it is still not late. The least we can do immediately is what many countries around the world have done: banning social media platforms for under-16 kids.

Then we need to have a calm discussion. When TikTok was banned, Insta created reels etc and the content creators could monetise their work there. If Insta gets banned, an Indian platform will rise. It absolutely will. But without a market, nobody will easily put up money. This is both an economics and a national security argument.

In a slightly different but related context of AI, I was reading about CXMT: the great Chinese HBM/DRAM company which came out of seemingly nowhere. But it did not come out of nowhere. The Chinese government gave it billions. Then more crucially it gave it a guaranteed market by getting Chinese Big Tech (which itself was created by partially blocking US Big Tech) route orders to CXMT.

Then they bought a bankrupt German company in the field and got all the IP, even if slightly dated. Then they hired like crazy. No individual step was rocket science. But collectively it was nothing but magic. The Chinese have the scale and they have ruthlessly exploited it. Kudos to them. Like the Americans did against the British or Germans earlier, or later against the Japanese.

Let us take ourselves seriously for a change. We are the largest polity on Earth. Our ancestors created these invisible bonds of fraternity, beautifully if imperfectly over millennia, so that today we can even think of boasting of such latent scale. But no ship is worth even its mast if it is only in its harbour. It is time for us to sail.

[GhoseSpot @TheRightGhose]

This could be Modi-Shah’s toughest challenge yet. It was always known that the opposition (esp Congress) had figured that it would be well nigh impossible to defeat the BJP in elections so they were preparing to take the battle to the streets. The preparations started long ago with Farmers’ Protest, Bharat Jodo Yatra, “Samvidhan Khatre Mein Hain” campaign, Hindenburg- Adani saga. BJP’s rush to manufacture 2/3 majority in Parliament by engineering defections - to pass Constitution amendment bills set the alarm bells ringing and the deep-state pressing the action button preemptively - activating all sleeper cells. It is a “zero-sum” game but clearly preparations were underway for long. Difficult to believe that the government was clueless about it. The Cockroaches couldn’t have emerged from nowhere. Then there are ‘Bibhishans’ in the party waiting to pour ethanol into the cauldron. Opposition leaders are making a beeline including the frail wily Kaka from Maharashtra. Plans are afoot to remap up protest in the states. There are reports to activate the diaspora too. But could Modi-Shah-Doval have underestimated or miscalculated the threat? The playbook and choreography seems uncannily similar to what happened in Bangladesh and Nepal recently. It would be a mistake to see it as a mere Anna Hazare - IAC movement 2.0. This has every making of 1975 redux. It’s an all hands on board attack. All sleeper cells have been activated. Influencers mobilised. Modi-Shah shouldn’t make the same mistakes of Indira Gandhi or Sheikh Hasina. It may not be May Day but with Independence Day round the corner - it may turn out to be a hot August if not handled well. Whatever it may be, it does not augur well for country- as there are many who would want us to falter and derail progress. God bless India: