Auber

Opendoor Data Explorer to track revenue/listings/inventory/stats/news

[Auber @Aubermark]

@ericjackson @nejatian @lucmatheson nicee teaam⚡️

[Auber @Aubermark]

@VintageGems203 @maelan_sdmr Tokenization is such a disruptive system that it’s likely everything will end up evolving around it.

[Auber @Aubermark]

IDK what you all think, but right now the Opendoor desktop listings page is basically 50% map and 50% list.
Personally, a small CSS tweak to something like 68% map and 32% list feels better to me.
More space for the map nodes, less visual compression, and if the user is interested in a home they can still see all the details on the right.

This is a quick test I did by tweaking the CSS from the console.

[Auber @Aubermark]

I don’t think zooming out to see entire states is that important, people tend to focus their searches much more locally.
In fact, it’s very likely that a large share of users arrive through SEO while looking to buy a home in a specific state. But the actual viewing space does matter, the current layout can feel a bit claustrophobic.

[Auber @Aubermark]

In the US, the percentage of home sales involving a mortgage has been around 70% in recent years.
This gives us a reasonable baseline to infer that roughly 30% of transactions are cash and about 70% use financing, although we don’t know the exact number since it isn’t publicly disclosed.

Once Opendoor rolls out its mortgage system nationwide, it will become harder to estimate what percentage of their buyers are using Opendoor-originated loans, especially because it’s very likely that the attach rate will increase.

The mortgage product they’re building is extremely attractive, and by controlling the entire vertical the experience becomes much easier and more convenient for the customer.

[Auber @Aubermark]

279 new listings in the last 5 days.
Last week, during the slowdown caused by the platform transition, there were only 114 listings for the entire week. They’ve already recovered quite a bit, and we still have the weekend ahead (when they usually don’t add many new homes)

[Auber @Aubermark]

It seems that this major platform shift has affected the flow of new listings this week. There have been several days where almost no new listings were added.
This change is likely related to the surge in acquisition‑contract volumes.

If Opendoor want to handle 50,000+ transactions per year, they need a platform built for that scale.

Excited to see what’s coming next and how the tracker picks it up over the next few weeks

[Auber @Aubermark]

Yes, it's possible to build something similar, or at least something close to it.
In fact, the current time‑range distribution in the tracker, from the moment a home is listed until it gets delisted, already resembles a kind of month‑based cohort.
I could try to put together a chart like the one you mentioned without any problem.
Next month I should have a bit more free time to dedicate to the tracker.

[Auber @Aubermark]

I also think comparison is a very human behavior, we constantly look at the price and value of similar products. The map lets you compare many prices at the same time, it doesn’t just provide location context, it also gives you a much broader price comparison than what the list shows at first glance.

[Auber @Aubermark]

Yes, once the user finds the home, the thing they care about most is the home itself, but the first step is actually finding it. That’s why I think the map deserves a slightly higher percentage of the layout than the list of homes. And it feels to me like something around 32–36% on the right side is enough without being intrusive.

[Kaz Nejatian @nejatian]

If you are an Opendoor shareholder, I have an ask.

Proxy advisors at ISS and Glass Lewis have recommended shareholders to vote against me at our Annual Meeting. I don’t take this personally. This is the fifth time in my career these same people have told people to vote against my team.

These proxy advisors have built no companies and are not meaningful shareholders of OPEN. They're a checkbox industry charging fees to tell other people what to do with shares that aren't theirs.

Usually most companies can’t do anything about this since many institutional shareholders will just vote the way ISS tells them to.

But Opendoor has the Open Army! It is important that we stand up against this separation of management from shareholders.

If you are so inclined, help tilt the world in favor of shareholders and away from bureaucrats.

Find out how (ask your broker, check your emails) and vote your shares. Our board is excellent. We are back on mission and we are winning.

Don't outsource your vote. Read the proxy. Vote your shares.

[Fahd Ananta @fahdananta]

Today we're launching a new Opendoor app on iOS

You can browse homes, see prices and home details, book a tour in a few taps, and manage everything in one place

Try it out and let me know what else you'd like to see us build into the app

[Auber @Aubermark]

Operational Q2 ends very close to the $800M tracked. A percentage of homes are sold privately and/or separately through local agents and therefore do not appear in Opendoor’s public listings.
The adjusted estimated revenue for Q2 is currently around $920M .
This is the first fully tracked quarter since the beginning, and the final revenue is very likely to land between $850–950M, exactly in line with their latest guidance (around $900M).

As escrow times decrease with the introduction of Opendoor’s mortgage system, the operational calendar should compress, reducing the number of days of lag versus the original quarter.
For now, we’re already starting operational Q3.

[Auber @Aubermark]

I think it would only be bad if, for example, 50% of their customers were filing complaints on that site relative to their volume. Satisfied customers are usually silent most of the time.
If they manage to sell 5,000 homes and only get around 50 negative notes as complaints, that would be a very good number.

[Auber @Aubermark]

@maelan_sdmr @RealOpenArmy @morganb @nejatian Amazon or Uber have ratings of around 2 stars on Trustpilot. There’s no need to overthink it, the site is designed more for complaints than for genuine recommendations. Most positive recommendations will come through word of mouth, as long as they execute well operationally.

[Auber @Aubermark]

In fact, Steam has done the same thing in the videogame space. They have a marketplace where game creators can list trading cards, items, and other assets that can be sold. Steam takes a commission on every one of those sales, and the developer keeps a share of the revenue. But what Steam really does is control the entire vertical: from the moment a creator uploads their finished game to the store and sells it on Steam, to all the marketplace services, trading cards, profiles, and so on.
If you control the transaction and you control the vertical, you can scale services easily without taking much risk, just like Amazon, where third‑party stores can use Amazon’s logistics services or simply sell on the platform using their own logistics.

I think all of this goes far beyond being an agent‑referral company. I understand that angle, but I believe Opendoor is aiming for something much bigger.

[Auber @Aubermark]

In five days, when the operational calendar ends, I’ll publish all the publicly tracked data there.
My adjusted revenue estimates are currently around $ 930M. I think that over time, as Opendoor earns more money from services, revenue will become harder to estimate.
They already have around nine licenses to originate mortgages. DOMA’s escrow services will be done without needing to own the home. Over time, there will be a larger gap between the revenue we can infer from listings and the revenue coming from services.

[Auber @Aubermark]

there wil be signs.. something big is cooking 🚀

[Auber @Aubermark]

@maelan_sdmr @Opendoor The second opinion looks fake, Opendoor gives you at least a 7‑day free return window.

[Auber @Aubermark]

It doesn’t necessarily have to be a bad thing. Many employees (including engineers) leave when the company’s mission feels stalled, and others leave because the company simply can’t afford to keep everyone, especially when the situation keeps getting worse.
Now that they see the company’s goals are much bigger, many of them are coming back, and the financial situation is better as well.