Aussie Turtles

Dive into the Legendary World of Turtle Trading, Aussie-Style! From bustling Wall Street to Australia's serene shores, the Turtle Trading legacy continues.

[Aussie Turtles @AussieTurtlesAU]

It’s here! We’ve published a book.

The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide is not a system, it’s a philosophy.

This book is a field manual for the builders, the thinkers, and the quiet ones who stay in the game long enough to catch the outlier.

Available on Amazon now: https://t.co/brCGxADxuH

#TrendFollowing #SystematicTrading #AussieTurtles #BookLaunch #Discipline #ProcessOverPrediction #AussieTurtles

[Aussie Turtles @AussieTurtlesAU]

When Convexity Has Nothing to Cut: The Quiet Month

April gave us the year's widest dispersion. May gave us the narrowest.

Every benchmark in the Battle of the Trend Following Indexes finished May inside roughly one percentage point of the others. Classic Trend led for a second straight month at +1.2%, but the margin was a fraction of April's.

The reason sits in the trend environment. The TTU Barometer printed 43, 57, 45, 32 across the four weeks and broke below 40 into Weak territory for the first time in the sequence. Energy reversed direction in three of those four weeks as the Iran and Hormuz cycle swung between escalation and diplomacy, each move undoing the one before it.

Here is the lesson underneath the numbers. Markets moved violently all month, and almost none of it persisted long enough to be captured. Volatility was everywhere and opportunity was scarce, because the two are not the same thing. Persistence, not movement, is the raw material of trend following, and in May it was the rarest commodity in the market.

Classic Trend now stands at +149.3% since 2020, still leading every major risk-adjusted measure. BTOP50 holds the lowest drawdown at 9.7%.

Read the full report here: https://t.co/0xTHU4icRn

#TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #CTA #SystematicInvesting

[Aussie Turtles @AussieTurtlesAU]

The Punk Rocker of Trend Following

What does it take to survive a 50% drawdown, dial the heat back up, and come out the other side with a 40-bagger on your chart?

On Episode 13 of Turtle Talk, Rich Brennan, Jerry Parker, and Adam Havryliv sit down with special guest Mike Melissinos, one of the handful of genuinely uncompromising classic trend followers left standing.

From a quiet summer at Bear Stearns to watching the GFC validate everything, from the trend following blues to feeling nothing when the big returns finally land, this is the honest, no fluff conversation the polished finance pods never give you. Plus the April 2026 review, SanDisk's astonishing run, and why classic trend following is punk rock.

Listen here: https://t.co/49YiS7TcEC

#TurtleTalk #ClassicTrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #MikeMelissinos

[Aussie Turtles @AussieTurtlesAU]

Battle of the Trend Following Indexes: April 2026

April was the strongest trend-following month of 2026 so far, and every benchmark finished positive.

Classic Trend led at +6.7%, roughly twice the next-best result. TTU TF +3.5%. IASG TF +3.4%. Systematic Momentum +3.3%. SG Trend +2.98%. SG CTA +2.6%. BTOP50 +2.0%.

The TTU Barometer round-tripped 66, 55, 48, 55, 50, 55 across five weeks. A tariff-driven commodity spike, a Hormuz reopening, a Hormuz re-closure, and a final week of uniform-direction energy strength delivered the bulk of the gains.

The same convexity that produced March's drawdown produced April's outperformance. The peers, with lower convexity and more diversified construction, captured a smaller share of both.

Full report: https://t.co/VeWYyXA85d

#TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #SystematicTrading #CTA

[Aussie Turtles @AussieTurtlesAU]

March 2026: When Convexity Cuts Both Ways

March ended trend following's two-month winning streak, with every benchmark finishing negative.

A sustained three-week repricing of precious metals defined the month. Silver crashed 14.4% mid-March. Gold fell 9.6% in the same week. Energy pulled the other way, with WTI approaching $100 and Brent clearing $109.

The dispersion across the seven benchmarks was 7.8 percentage points, the widest of the year. SG CTA was most defensive at -0.8%. Classic Trend gave back 8.6%, reflecting the larger embedded metals exposure carried in after February's explosive close.

The TTU Barometer absorbed the pain and accelerated to 66% by month-end, a localised repricing, not a broader breakdown.

Long-run picture unchanged: Classic Trend leads at +130.8% since 2020, with a cumulative advantage over the next-best benchmark exceeding 66 points.

Read the full report: https://t.co/2OrwLXPU0Y

#TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #SystematicTrading #CTA

[Aussie Turtles @AussieTurtlesAU]

Loose Pants & Big Trends: February 2026 Review

No guests this month, just the three turtles going deep.
February was a cracker for classic trend followers. But March has thrown a few spanners in the works, and Rich, Jerry, and Adam don't hold back on what it means, and what comes next.

In Episode 12:
February numbers: Classic Trend Index up 5.3% for the month, 14.6% for the quarter
Energy breakouts: why European gas and Brent crude are the trades to watch
Myth Busters: what Richard Dennis actually said about position sizing
The real purpose of diversification in classic trend following

🎧 Listen now: https://t.co/hjhcSaCfLW

#TurtleTalk #TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #MythBusters

[Aussie Turtles @AussieTurtlesAU]

February 2026: Another Strong Month for Trend Followers

All seven trend-following indexes posted gains in February. Classic Trend led at +5.3%, with metals exploding in the final week. Silver surged 12.4% and gold extended to fresh all-time highs above $5,296.

The full February Battle of the Trend Following Indexes is live now.

https://t.co/osPxZsPihO

#TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #SystematicTrading #CTA

[Aussie Turtles @AussieTurtlesAU]

@cutsandrunners Many thanks :-)

[Aussie Turtles @AussieTurtlesAU]

@Dan_Trend Just LinkedIn as far as I'm aware :-)

[Aussie Turtles @AussieTurtlesAU]

🐢 Turtle Talk Podcast — Episode 011: FX Arbitrage, Regime Change, and the Return of Classic Trend

Episode 011 is live. Rich Brennan, Jerry Parker, and Adam Havryliv are joined by Sanjeev Lakhanpal of Horizon3 Investment Management for a conversation covering January's rare unanimity across all seven trend benchmarks, the vol-weighting vs loose pants debate, Horizon3's market-neutral FX swap arbitrage program, and why three decades of regime change point to a return of the classic CTA environment.

🎧 Watch or listen here: https://t.co/33vGl96swK

#TrendFollowing #SystematicTrading #FXArbitrage #OutlierHunting

[Aussie Turtles @AussieTurtlesAU]

Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – January 2026

January delivered a rare moment of unanimity. All seven trend benchmarks posted gains, with Classic Trend and BTOP50 sharing the monthly lead at +5.0%. Dispersion compressed to just 1.1 percentage points, the tightest on record.

Classic Trend now stands at +140.0% since January 2020. BTOP50 proved that stability need not sacrifice upside. IASG leads the trailing twelve-month window at +9.5%.

A powerful start to 2026, and a clear reminder that when trends align, the entire systematic universe moves together.

https://t.co/lLHH18fXCb

#TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #SystematicInvesting #OutlierHunting

[Aussie Turtles @AussieTurtlesAU]

Savouring the Trend with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen in Zurich

As part of their ongoing Savouring the Trend series, CIO Adam Havryliv and Strategy Ambassador Richard Brennan travelled to Zurich to share an evening with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen.

Over dinner at Ristorante Bindella, the conversation explored Niels’ dual contribution to systematic trading: from leading European and Asian investor relations at DUNN Capital Management, LLC, to building Top Traders Unplugged into essential listening for the industry’s most serious practitioners. It was an evening defined by discipline, consistency and respect for craft.

You can read the full story here: https://t.co/q4CamADhYl

#trendfollowing #systematictrading #SavouringTheTrend #NielsKaastrupLarsen #TopTradersUnplugged #AussieTurtles #ECCM

[Aussie Turtles @AussieTurtlesAU]

@GTO_J1 It is out of the oven. Piping hot :-)

[Aussie Turtles @AussieTurtlesAU]

Episode 009 – “Outliers, Crises, and the Architecture of Trend Following” delivers a sharp year end roundtable from the Turtle Talk team, focused on robustness, structure, and the realities of modern trend following.

This month, we shift from book launch mode back into deep market mechanics, exploring how trend systems behave when markets move from calm world to rough world.

➡️ What’s inside this episode:

Why Outlier Hunters Win Across Full Cycles
Rich walks through calm versus rough market regimes and reveals why compounding geometry gives outlier strategies the long term edge.
One Hundred and Twenty Five Years of Crisis
A data driven look at crisis history and the fat tailed behaviour that defines market structure.
Diversification for Outlier Hunting
Jerry explains why broad, disciplined market coverage is essential for capturing the rare events that drive performance.
Is Trend Following an Infinite Money Glitch
Adam breaks down why systematic rules, not prediction, remain the source of robustness in uncertain environments.

October’s Trend Index Rebound
A quick snapshot of the latest index moves and what they signal for trend momentum heading into year end.

📌 If you care about system design, robustness, or the long arc of market behaviour, this episode belongs in your toolkit.

Listen here: https://t.co/qBNXJmTflI

From all of us at Aussie Turtles®, thank you for supporting the show throughout 2025. We wish you a happy Christmas and a great New Year. See you in January.

#TrendFollowing #SystematicTrading #AussieTurtles #OutlierHunter #QuantInvesting #MarketStructure #CTAPerformance

[Aussie Turtles @AussieTurtlesAU]

🎙 Why Most Equity Returns Come From Just a Handful of Stocks

Episode 010 of Turtle Talk is live, featuring Cole Wilcox (@ColeWilcoxCIO) of Longboard Asset Management alongside Jerry Parker and Rich Brennan.

We explore why indices dilute trend signals, how stock-level trend following captures long-duration outliers, and why robust, systematic processes matter when markets produce moves no backtest prepared us for. The conversation spans classic trend dispersion, recent sharp reversals across metals and livestock, and the structural forces that drive real compounding over time.

👉 Listen here:
https://t.co/qERw9oyEjc

#TrendFollowing #SystematicTrading #OutlierHunter #AussieTurtles

[Aussie Turtles @AussieTurtlesAU]

@priceactionnerd @duckman1717 @PeterLBrandt We just follow the rules, not our emotions. If your currently inventing the justification to go against those rules, that is rationalised emotion. Know the difference.

[Aussie Turtles @AussieTurtlesAU]

@priceactionnerd @TopTradersLive I am over in Brisbane, Queensland. Happy to have a cuppa with you if you are over here in the Sunshine State :-)

[Aussie Turtles @AussieTurtlesAU]

Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – December 2025

December delivered a strong finish to the year. All seven trend benchmarks ended positive or flat as Classic Trend extended its lead and IASG claimed the top spot for 2025. BTOP50 continued to anchor stability with the lowest drawdown and highest winning month ratio.

A fitting close to a year of contrasts — and a clear reminder that patience in trend following is eventually rewarded.

https://t.co/2qAlD6zkNP

#TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #SystematicInvesting #OutlierHunter

[Aussie Turtles @AussieTurtlesAU]

Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – November 2025

November delivered quiet gains and consolidation, not a reversal. Six of seven trend benchmarks finished positive as dispersion narrowed and leadership rotated. IASG strengthened its YTD lead, Classic Trend retained long-term dominance, and BTOP50 continued to anchor stability when trends paused.

📊 A clear snapshot of who is leading, who is stabilising, and why structure matters in trend following.

👉 https://t.co/vDQvTYWwg8

#TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #SystematicInvesting #OutlierHunting