Quant Chad

Crunching numbers in prediction markets. Betting against the herd.

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@mini_boss_io Aware of this use case. Agree; there might be a model for this. But as I said in my post, a, niche or not, it exists (yet)

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@mini_boss_io what kind of cross hedging ?

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

Leverage for Prediction Markets will never be big.

At best it's a niche product.

Each dot is a type of Polymarket trader with 5x leverage, priced so the lender breaks even. Further right = more of them end up better off. Higher = the lender makes money on them. Bigger = more of the volume.

No group reaches 50%. In every one, most traders end up worse off with leverage than without.

Now look at the two dots furthest right, pros and sports bettors. Both are below zero: the lender loses money on them.

The highest dots? Retail and bonders, the people who want leverage most and get hurt by it.

And the giant dot is whales, almost three-quarters of all the money. They're sitting on cash. They don't need a loan.

So it loses money on the traders it helps and makes money on the ones it hurts. That's a niche, not a market.

The audience for leverage is thin / no in the market yet.

Full case study in comments

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

Case Study: https://t.co/aowsQvCQUb

[FatMbappe @TheFatMbappe]

The real question: is W. Legate actually loyal to anyone?

> Become a Thiel Fellow
> Start as a left-wing Democrat bashing Trump
> Found a pillow startup Lose your co-founder
> Pivot to conservative and join Kalshi
> Jump ship from Kalshi to Polymarket
> Pump shady influencer campaigns for growth
> Go full Republican retweeting racist posts

Say what you want about Legate. The man wears a lot of hats.

Is he a genius marketer who knows exactly how to adapt and find his place in the sun, or a carefully planted psyop?

What side are you on? | EP. 5

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@fort1kkk @Novig @ProphetX the platform have not been banned, but all platform have been banned from offering these specific types of markets

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

The CFTC is cracking down on Sports prediction markets.

It just banned exchanges from proposing new type of sports contracts.

Looks like regulator are tying to slowly choke out sports markets

The CFTC contacted @Novig and @ProphetX and ordered them to take down the following markets :

- Who scores the 1st points in a basketball game?
- Will any NFL end with a final score never seen before?
- Will an MLB game produce a never-before-seen score?
- Who will score the 1st point in a Football game?

They argue that these categories are prone to manipulaton.

If you remember it's the same argument that they used to force Kalshi to ban Sports mention markets

Regulations are dropping at an increasing rate :

- July: CFTC forces Kalshi to ban bets on sport mention.
- September: The CFTC send a warning about "manipulation risks" in mention markets in general
- October (Now): The CFTC bans first goal and scorigami markets
---- next ----
- The CFTC bans mention markets ?
- The CFTC drops sports market entirely (reclassied as gambling) ?

Is the Trump admin starting to turn against prediction markets ? Or is the CFTC just trying to hedge their bets for when Democrats come to power ?

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@gmblerr @0xinternetchild @Novig @ProphetX because they leaned so hard into it. it's the quick easy money

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@Random501901 @Novig @ProphetX Yeah but combos are just a combination of base markets so the more of those they ban, the less combo

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@coleodds Yeah exactly they cherry pick the trade they show you

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@mini_boss_io Some are naive

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

NEW STUDY : Polymarket KOLs are bad traders and you will lose money if you follow them.

We all knew it, but it's nice to finally have proof.

A study by Prediction Market Census tracked 307 Polymarket influencers, their wallets and the call they made on social media.

Here's what they discovered 👇

1. Their calls are trash.

Researchers matched 162 public KOL trading calls to their earlier trades.

On those exact same bets:

- avg. KOL return: +12.3%
- avg. Follower entering when posted: −2.4%

If you see a KOL posting shilling a trade opportunity, it's already too late and they are using you as exit liquidity.

1. KOLs are WORST traders than average.

> 57.5% of KOL accounts lost money trading.
> 50.5% of non-KOL accounts with similar trading volumes lose money.

So remember. No competent trader is going to give you free alpha.

If they have alpha, they will keep it to themselves.

If they pretend to have alpha, they are farming you for refferal revenue.

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@shtanga0x i'm not sure the support from investor is strong but it's very bad PR to fire the CEO

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@willo2_Poly The airdrop curse is real

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@trylimitless @Polymarket Now that they are down you strike, but when they were at the top you kept glazing

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@AMK_Mapping_ The bulls in shamble

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@polyguana Election markets like these are mirrored on every platform so it's the best type of market to trade through a smart aggregator like Polyguana

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@mini_boss_io @Novig @ProphetX Wise business move but I wish they had focused more on international. I like crypto rails more

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@Payne_1337 @Polymarket S-tier meme game, my brother

[Polyguana @polyguana]

Big elections ahead: Israel, BC, Bulgaria, Serbia, and the midterms.

Track the best odds and earn passive yield on your account using Polyguana.

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@betmoardotfun There is no free money anywhere