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[JinYu金鱼 @JinYu762]

美股AI这轮牛市周期

我来整理一下

现在是沿着产业链再走

看懂的人，已经赚了好几波了

第一波｜半导体

$NVDA
$AMD
$AVGO
$ARM
这波是AI革命的起点
英伟达从低点涨了十几倍
大多数人是看着涨的，没敢上车
这波红利，散户吃到的少

第二波｜存储

$MU
$WDC
$STX
$SNDK
AI要算力，算力要存储
HBM价格涨了60%
产能排到2028年
全市场都知道了
现在追是高位

第三波｜光模块

$AAOI
$LITE
$COHR
$CIEN
$MRVL

这波很多人没反应过来
数据中心之间要传数据，铜缆传不了，只能上光纤

$AAOI一年涨了934%
$LITE一年涨了621%
$COHR一年涨了529%
已经爆了

现在资金在猛攻｜算力和数据中心

$IREN
$CORZ
$WULF
$NBIS
$CRWV
AI数据中心是吞电的怪兽
算力就是这个时代的石油
资金正在扎堆，这是当下最热的方向

下一个轮到谁呢？
这才是真正的问题

① 电力、电网、核电

$VRT
$ETN
$CEG
$SMR
$OKLO
数据中心耗电量每年翻倍。核电这条链还没被市场充分定价

② 网络设备

$ANET
$AVGO
$MRVL
$CSCO
数据中心内部的交换机和网络
钱还没大规模进来，但逻辑很硬

③ 原材料和稀土

$MP
$FCX
$AA
$UUUU
AI硬件的底层原料。 铜、铝、稀土，每一个都是供给瓶颈。 这条线最冷，也可能是下一个最猛的。

④ 机器人

$TSLA
$SYM
$SERV
AI从云端走向物理世界。 现在还早，但方向是确定的

⑤ 国防军工

$KTOS
$AVAV
$LMT
AI加军工，两个最不差钱的叠在一起
这个组合很难不涨

仔细分析提前蹲在下一个方向，等资金来把你抬起来

追涨杀跌的，永远是最后接盘的

[CryptoReviewing @CryptoReviewing]

The majority are expecting downside.

$BTC just pumped from $74,900 to $79,400 liquidating $474M shorts.

Then, $BTC dumped to $77,200 liquidating another $182M longs.

Now, the 1 day liquidation map has:
- $820M Longs
- $1.95B Shorts!!!

That's 2.4x more shorts than longs, all the way up to $82,200 ready to be liquidated...

Bears could be in trouble.

[森林 @AvirlJessc14441]

@zls0910 大吉大利

[飞凡 @feifan7686]

下跌是市场修复和洗牌的阶段，2025的主要利好在于美国对加密的优待和对加密初创公司的利好政策，这就意味着他们能够更好地在下跌市场存活或者锁定价值，

因此重新收集美国板块代币很重要：

在美的核心项目汇总（最全）：

XRP $XRP
Solana $SOL
USDC $USDC
Cardano $ADA
Chainlink $LINK
Avalanche $AVAX
Stellar $XLM
Sui $SUI
Hedera $HBAR
Litecoin $LTC
Polkadot $DOT
Uniswap $UNI
NEAR Protocol $NEAR
Official Trump $TRUMP
Ondo $ONDO
Aptos $APT
Algorand $ALGO
Render $RENDER
Filecoin $FIL
Stacks $STX
Injective $INJ
Optimism $OP
Theta Network $THETA
Bonk $BONK
Movement $MOVE
Worldcoin $WLD
The Graph $GRT
Sei $SEI
GALA $GALA
EOS $EOS
Tezos $XTZ
Onyxcoin $XCN
Jito $JTO
Pudgy Penguins $PENGU
Aerodrome Finance $AERO
dYdX $DYDX
Helium $HNT
Reserve Rights $RSR
Eigenlayer $EIGEN
Zcash $ZEC
Compound $COMP
Akash Network $AKT
Amp $AMP
Kava KAVA
PayPal USD PYUSD
Telcoin TEL
Frax Ether FRXETH
SuperVerse SUPER
Theta Fuel TFUEL
Kusama KSM
Arkham ARKM
Dash DASH
Blur BLUR
0x Protocol ZRX
Basic Attention BAT
Celo CELO
Plume PLUME
Siacoin SC
ZetaChain ZETA

#Bitcoin #ETH #SOL #TRUMP

[森林 @AvirlJessc14441]

@huahuayjy 日你妈，发一个死一个，操你妈

[很大很大的橙子 @0xVeryBigOrange]

看哭了。

[森林 @AvirlJessc14441]

@jordanwangbtc @Ed_x0101 现在什么钱包比较好用？

[森林 @AvirlJessc14441]

@MAGACoinX @HTX_Global 操你妈，这时候还不拉盘，这么跌怎么出圈？傻逼庄

[森林 @AvirlJessc14441]

@btcnftfi 提前感谢，不要是津巴布韦币就好

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Conversation with @realDonaldTrump starts in a few minutes

[森林 @AvirlJessc14441]

@huahuayjy 花哥，SSV怎么看，现在的价格性价比如何？

[森林 @AvirlJessc14441]

@xiaomucrypto 你是无限子弹吗？

[Cristian Chifoi @ChifoiCristian]

"2024: Everyone is wrong in the market"

This is my mid 2024 market view, into 2025, and we will talk about: Bitcoin, S&P500, DXY, FED rates and the potential recession that should come

If you don't know my January 2024 outlook, here's a link, go check it out:
https://t.co/LKZ1dngjO1

In there you will see my first S&P500 target of $5500 reached, and also Bitcoin's new all time high before the halving, and today we'll update that outlook to see where we are in the market for the next 6-12 months

This is a serious post, and later on I shall return to my trolling bears posts, slashing them open and making fun of them, because being a bear is not profitable unless you find a small window of opportunity - which we shall discuss also

Hint: it's smaller than any bear's wife's pussy, but still bigger than any bear's penis

Enough! Let's begin!

1. S&P500 index & FED Rates

Ahh, a story as old as time, or a bear's insuccess

FED Rates are a lagging indicator to know how hot the markets are, but still they give a pretty good tell for when there will be problems.

a) September 2007: after 1 year of maintaining rates at 525 bps, we have the first cut, and after 5 more cuts, market was still pretty hot, no sign of recession and big drawdowns.

After those 6 cuts, the soft landing narrative installs - "market no dump bro, we fine, we bid"

Soft landing meant 2-3 FOMC where FED maintained rates again - THIS IS WHERE PROBLEMS START!

During the entire period of cuts, then soft landing - 9 months in total - market remained HOT

b) July 2019: after 6 months of maintaining rates at 250 bps, we have the first cut, and 2 cuts after (Sept and Nov 2019)

After those 3 cuts, soft landing narrative and 2 FOMCs with no rate cuts: Dec & Jan - and big problems in March, 3rd FOMC that brought rates to zero-ish

My guess: this time is not different
Right now we have September 2024 for first rate cut (makes sense after 1y of maintaining rates, just like 2007 high rates of 525 bps, and now 550 bps)

We should have 3-5 rate cuts, which could mean Sept to January-March time, then some soft landing narrative for 2-3 FOMCs with rates maintained, then a global event, again.

SPX up target is $6000ish, down target is $3500+

See my original January 2024 market view, with just the timeline that is different. So basically we could get an extended period of time to reach my targets.

Next up...
2. DXY

Nothing changed on my DXY view, just the timing. Period 3 should come after the "soft landing" narrative, that means the $ printer machine would go berserk like no other time in American history

The Dollar would find its way thru the global economy much easier, much faster, thanks to stablecoins, but this also means double digit inflation on the next wave, 2026+

This would take US assets to a parabolic mania, until end of decade - check my #roaringtwenties posts

3. Bitcoin (& crypto)

Based on the short experience with FED rates, maybe this time could be different (Wall Street owned)

a) 2019 July first cut: as consensus hit the market, euphoria installed, BTC going from 7400$ to 14000$ in a matter of weeks

But then had a downtrend until the soft landing narrative, which meant a last drink before the pandemic war (global event, just like GFC in 2008)

Being a speculative 100 bill $ asset, after the first rate cut, its price action failed to follow the S&P, but that could be different today

b) September 2024 first rate cut: this could differ (maybe we get a July or Nov/December cut, we would update plan later), but we play the hand we're dealt

Either scenario 1 or 2 in play, we're missing a leg up to 90-100k, as euphoria should set in to complete this mid or complete cycle (we will find out later and will update market view)

What I really don't know is if the downtrend after rate cuts is happening this time, ETFs and Wall Street, and the fact that we're at 12x the market cap for BTC as an asset, which makes it nonspeculative

Which could mean that Scenario 2 is in play, so no downtrend until "soft landing" - we shall see

This means that altcoins should have big rallies, as
time is more important than price

In 2019 for reference, we had almost no time in the market, as in half of 2022 + 2/3 of 2023, so almost no gains in the altcoin market, but...

Time > price! More time and price not moving, more agressive pumps later

1.4 trillion $ is my next target before we can talk about trend change, just as BTC next leg up, and maybe an 120-170k extended leg to complete the cycle

This could lead to a left translated cycle, but we will see, because the next major printing after the "soft landing narrative" means that scarce asset pump hardest and longest.

Just give a follow @ChifoiCristian and stay tuned, it doesn't cost anything.

We shall bathe in the blood of our bears and after they're dead, we shall wear their pelts, imbearsonating them to be aware of the next global event after the "soft landing"

Hazzah!

I shall pin this shit onto my profile

[森林 @AvirlJessc14441]

@btc690000 @sunyuchentron 他就像个√8

[Main Rally @btc690000]

@sunyuchentron 黄仁勋：“我让你来教我？”

[币安Binance华语 @binancezh]

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[森林 @AvirlJessc14441]

@cishanjia 抄底

[森林 @AvirlJessc14441]

@CaptToblerone Hi Capt. What do you think of OP?

[森林 @AvirlJessc14441]

@cishanjia 这种人生儿子没屁眼，干他娘