$BTC bottomed after 87% dump in 2015.
Bitcoin bottomed after 84% dump in 2018.
BTC bottomed after 78% dump in 2022.
And people are now thinking we'll bottom after a 50% drop.
IMO, Bitcoin will have at least a 60%-65% dump this time before the bottom.
🚨 PAY ATTENTION
Bitcoin’s next cycle bottom won’t be defined by price.
The only thing that matters now:
Time.
Every Bitcoin cycle follows the same structure:
35 bars expansion + 12 bars contraction.
2015–2017: expansion
2018: contraction
2018–2021: expansion
2022: contraction
Now look at where we are.
The expansion phase is complete.
The contraction has just begun.
And this phase always takes time.
Days from cycle top → final low:
2012: ~400 days
2016: ~360 days
2020: ~370 days
We are not there yet.
Based on historical timing, the highest-probability window for the real bottom is:
July–November 2026.
That matters more than any price level people are watching.
Most traders think like this:
“I’ll buy when it hits X.”
But real bottoms don’t form at obvious levels.
Below $50,000 I’m a buyer. Regardless of when it happens.
July–November 2026 I’m a buyer. Regardless of price.
If one of those conditions is met, I buy.
No hesitation.
Yes, I started accumulating in the $60k range already.
Even though the timing window isn’t here yet.
Back in October, around $120k,
I said I’d be a strong buyer near $60k.
People ignored it.
“BTC will never go below $100k again.”
Now we’re here.
And there’s still one signal missing:
NUPL.
Every major bottom:
- 2018
- COVID
- 2022
Formed when NUPL entered the blue zone.
We haven’t seen that yet.
Remember: For the record, I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October.
If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too.
Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
Every cycle is the same.
Yes, crypto could bounce. And honestly, it would be great for sentiment if it could. But even if it does, it would most likely result in a macro lower high.
I don't try and time those bounces. I have tried before with mixed levels of success. Sometimes it works, other times I got rekt.
When BTC drops below the 50W moving average, it then goes to the 100W moving average, spends a little time there, then goes to the 200W moving average.
Every cycle is eventually the same.
BTC topped when it always does (Q4 of the post-halving year), and so many have spent so many hours trying to convince you that it has not.
And BTC entered into a bear market, and so many have tried to get you to believe that alt season is "just around the corner" because it always happens after BTC tops. What they fail to account for is social interest. After the 2019 top there was also no rotation into altcoins, which also occurred just before QT ended.
I track the social interest in the asset class, and it has been trending down since 2021. There is no one new here for people to sell their altcoins to.
Alt seasons historically occur *after* social interest has been trending up for a year, not after it has been trending down for 5 years.
Have an actual plan on navigating this brutal asset class. Because if the altcoins you hold drop another 50%-80% from here, not a single influencer who promoted them will express an ounce of regret for it. And you will simply be living with the consequences.
I get a lot of hate for saying the truth, but an inconvenient truth is better than a lie.
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