Christopher L

Founder | Investor | ex- IBD/ECM/S&T
AI, tech & crypto

[Christopher L @Aznpr7de]

@cz_binance (just said this live): crypto hasn’t even started.

On crypto (big picture):
• Still early (<10% adoption), far from saturated
• Expanding into finance, FX, commodities
• AI × blockchain likely next layer (payments/settlement)
• Don’t judge long-term potential by current stage

How to find 10x projects?
• Not about many bets—just a few right ones
• Prefers bear markets + mission-driven founders
• Focus on fundamentals (tech/protocol), team handles deep DD

Hype vs real narrative?
• Real signal = sustained building (GitHub, dev activity)
• Multi-cycle development > short-term price
• Marketing-driven projects fade fast
• Founders who hop → shorter lifecycles

Advice for younger people?
• Opportunities > ever (AI, tools, distribution)
• Need to compound real skills; build one core skill first
• Competition ↑, but signals clearer (what works / doesn’t)

Why speak out / write now?
• To correct narratives + be transparent
• Writing = forced reflection + closure

Startup reality?
• Early years = 24/7 grind, high pressure, invisible cost
• Structure and stability come much later
#binance#crypto #BTC

[Christopher L @Aznpr7de]

@ParadisLabs 💯

[Christopher L @Aznpr7de]

#sive is literally just a small visionary player. It hasn't earned even a seat at the big leagues table yet.

> fabless
> no PO
> no experience with massive production
> no revenue conversion
> limited TAM

It just trades on:

> “non-binding headlines” and
> stuff like “I really like #sive,”
> the next #COHR/#Lite lottery ticket

I don’t see #sive challenge or disrupt anything anytime soon, probably will get bought by established players, with most upside potential to capture < 10% of market share if executed well.

Other players like #MX sit in similar layer as sive, even has its own fab, trades at 230M MC, 1/10 of sive’s MC.

@LIWEI_TWCapital #nvda #cpo #optic #laser

[LIWEI_TW Capital @LIWEI_TWCapital]

I like $SIVE, but I don’t assume it can reach a $30B–$70B market cap anytime soon, especially before proving large-scale ramp capability.

If $SIVE is truly the choke point of the AI optics supply chain, I find it hard to believe Jensen and other strategic partners haven’t taken a stake already. I don’t think someone operating at Jensen’s level would fail to recognize a real gold.

For context, $SIVE’s downstream partner $Wiwynn (~$30B market cap) already generates billions in revenue. If one of my suppliers had that kind of upside, wouldn’t I want a piece of it?

If the opportunity were that obvious, would big industry players really leave it to retail investors?

$NVDA #Ayarlabs #CPO #Photonics #AIInfrastructure

[Christopher L @Aznpr7de]

@damnang2 Any color that we don’t know?

[Christopher L @Aznpr7de]

Agree, 现在最大的矛盾是，市场在用AI的速度炒这些股票，但AI真正落地，本质上更像传统制造业周期。过往的solar、EV、fiber、早期5G、
方向都对，但落地慢，主升浪完都会杀估值。长期逻辑在，不代表股价不回调，离变现越远跌的越狠。最近token使用率和openai降价已经打到AI叙事的大动脉了 - Trump入股openai才是真正的derisk moment，毕竟ai capex只能继续投入一条路走到黑，但仅靠hyperscaler来维持目前看来已经有点疲软了。

[Christopher L @Aznpr7de]

agree 💯 with @SemiAnalysis_ on the realistic adoption path re #CPO.

Shared my thesis here earlier last month.

“We’ve seen similar setups before: #solar, #EV charging, fiber buildouts, early #5G.

The direction was right.
The rollout was slower.
Valuations reset hard.”

[Christopher L @Aznpr7de]

When cars were invented, people didn’t stop riding horses overnight.

The better technology eventually won. But the transition took longer - and usually messier - than we expected.

#Photonics in #AI networking may be similar.

Optics IS the next major upgrade:
- lower power
- faster speeds
- better scaling for massive AI clusters

But copper still works well enough today:
- cheaper
- simpler
- still heavily used in many current AI clusters

That’s why #hyperscalers are still building large #copper-heavy systems today.

Photonics today looks more like an upgrade cycle than a hard #bottleneck like #EUV or advanced chip manufacturing.

The technology is improving quickly.

But the industry still needs time on:
- packaging
- reliability
- integration at scale
- deployment economics

We’ve seen similar setups before: #solar, #EV charging, fiber buildouts, early #5G.

The direction was right.
The rollout was slower.
Valuations reset hard.

#photonics #optics #CPO #siliconphotonics will no doubt become the “standard,” but..

IF the rollout takes longer too,

how much of today’s valuation still holds up?

As investors we all want to believe we’ve found the next “certainty.”

Reality is rarely that clean.

Still worth thinking about.

[Christopher L @Aznpr7de]

Anyone tells u to chase #BRUN before the lock up ends… either they didn’t understand how De-Spac works, or they probably entered way earlier and dumped their shares on you 🥬 and now pretend to be the nice guy 😂

literally posted this and fyi never held any shares. I’m surprised it took this long for people to find out.

[Christopher L @Aznpr7de]

That is why I'm careful with $BRUN here.

- 50% short interest
- 30% short-term sellable pool

I actually like the company:

- fresh #neocloud angle.
- credible management background.
- strong pipeline.
- dell supply agreement.

But for De-SPAC trades, the key is not just the story...

it is where the stock sits in the trading cycle.

[Christopher L @Aznpr7de]

@Yeah_Dave Agree. The margin adjustment feels misleading especially considering that’s a big % of the COGS. Also short term sell pressure is real - typical mechanical de-spac thing. But company does have good fundamentals imo

[Christopher L @Aznpr7de]

I really like the AI factory progress made by both #PENG (#PenguinSolutions) and #P (#Everpure) :

> Both solve real physical bottlenecks: #PENG tackles the memory wall, #P tackles the storage wall

> Full-stack hardware + software solutions → high margins, recurring revenue & strong customer stickiness

> No big players could offer the exact same full-stack combo at their layers

> Technically validated with strong ecosystem ties (#NVDA, #Meta, #Dell, SK hynix, etc.)

> Strong backlog conversion, massive production ramps, deliveries & live case studies

> Structural multi-year tailwinds from AI buildout (hyperscalers, neoclouds & enterprise) with revenue visibility

> management raising guidance, sell-side analysts lifting targets

Stock price today: $PENG trades at $69, $P trades at $83.

I believe both stocks will double by year end.

Will revisit in 6 months.

[Christopher L @Aznpr7de]

@AntonLaVay #Peng 解决memory wall, #P (everpure) 解决storage wall, 两者都是软硬件一体化解决方案，卡位比较准，属于multiple years structural cycle imo

[Christopher L @Aznpr7de]

@mvanbeijeren Gotcha. #DGXX is another neocloud, with its own power ready + a modular pod that supposed to accelerate the buildout process at the Alabama site. Do u expect the process to be standard with measurable difficulty? Thx