Today is proof you just need one trade executed well to make it. I was ‘late’ to the trade at $9 but I sized well and exited around $22 after the nance perp listing. I wasn’t early, I didn’t sell the top but through sizing and execution I made sure I made a noteworthy gain on my portfolio.
If you haven’t performed well today, reflect on where you could have improved and instead of feeling disappointed, be excited by the opportunity this space presents.
If you missed or fumbled this you should be more motivated than ever to hit the next runner. No crying, just full focus on yourself and what’s to come still. And make no mistake, the wealth effect of this over the coming weeks will be monumental.
Lock the fuck in, our time is now.
The most valuable ai infrastructure will be those which allow production of utility agents with genuine usecase and adoption vs framework’s which only allow for production of tweeting/singing/dancing agents.
That’s partly why $Ai16z, $Virtual and now $Arc are trading at premiums:
$Virtual $3.6bil
$Ai16z $1.7bil
$Arc $449mil
Although not strictly a framework, $Build also allows for the production of utility agents and is part of the reason why I believe it’s currently presenting as a market inefficiency:
$Build $41mil
As it’s not a framework I believe its ceiling is more limited than the above but I also believe it’s very mispriced at this market cap. Currently one of the few web3 projects which allows web2 business’ an easy way to integrate agents.
Repricing soon ⏳
Have been giving some thought as to how to value ai infra plays.
Of course the leaders are $ai16z and $virtual. There are multiple reasons as to why this pair trades at a premium to other ai infra of course but in my view at the core of their pricing is the high quality adoption they’ve seen, in addition to value accrual back to the token.
$Arc and $zerebro on the other hand have mostly traded in the $300-400mil range recently which leads me to think that ai infra without adoption is valued in this range by the market.
I believe we will see $pippin and $ava therefore trade close to this area in the near term.
For the above four to trade higher, adoption will have to be seen. I believe adoption on frameworks will take them from the $300-400mil valuations towards the $600-800mil range. From there to break and build from $1bil upwards it will become primarily about quality and consistency of adoption.
$Arc is about to see adoption go live on its rig framework which I believe will provide the fuel for it to build a floor at a higher market cap range of $600-800mil in the short term. If the quality of agents is high, which I’m inclined to believe will be given the team is vetting each launch, I think it can reprice to over $1bil pretty swiftly.
This isn’t considering the potential solana partnership either. Exciting times ahead.
If you’re new to ct, here’s how it works:
Green candle:
‘Omg btc is going straight 200k, send everything’
Red candle:
‘Ye it’s over sell everything’
No in between. Exaggerated reactions either way.
I’d recommend picking 3-5 accounts to listen to for btc/macro thoughts. Everything else is just noise.
I was previously of the opinion that the inauguration would be sell the news but in light of the price action in December I have revised my thoughts:
-Btc fell from 108k to 90k
-Alts nuked
The market essentially reset. Additionally the equity market looks strong now that the Fed meeting has been digested, and this years started with strong etf inflows which I expect to continue in anticipation of the ease in regulations we’re going to see under Trump.
People who were going to sell the inauguration already did, and given the above I expect us to rally going into and beyond inauguration now. I expect the current dips to be some of the best buying opportunities we’ll get in the coming weeks.
I’m particularly excited about what’s to come for the ai sector. Even during the downturn we saw ai plays doing multiples but imagine how well they can perform once we’re in a market wide uptrend. I believe it’s becoming increasingly difficult to pick individual agents which outperform but this only strengthens the case for bidding ai infra instead imo.
These are the safest bids to me and I think we still see crazy multiples from here in the coming months.
I’ve been telling you for weeks now
This is the meta which people keep thinking they’re late to but it keeps going
We will end up with at least 4-6 framework plays in the multi billys like we had with L1s
/up_only_arc