B. Angelo | βα

From Beta to Alpha.
BSc Economics • MSc Finance • CFA Level III Candidate.
Deep fundamental small-cap research & valuation.
Not financial advice.

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

$SPCX keeps rising and nobody seems to care about the math.

IPO at $135.
+20% on day 1.
+20% on day 2.
+15% today, reaching $220

That's +63% from IPO price in under 3 days.

Most people think this is still cheap.

They haven't read the lock-up schedule.

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

🚨 Market sell-off: What's actually going on?

The market seems to have entered panic mode following Bank of America's recent forecast, which now calls for 3 US rate hikes by the end of the year. But there's one key detail most people are missing: the market itself doesn't even believe it.

The implied probability in futures contracts for that scenario to materialize is a mere 10%. Consensus still points to just a single hike. BofA’s estimate is an aggressive outlier, not reality.

Where did the alarm come from? The oil price shock triggered by the Middle East conflict, which led the Fed to adopt a more hawkish tone last week.

Except this pressure is entirely supply-driven, not demand-driven... And it's fading in real-time: WTI crude fell below $70 today and is already down 40% from its recent peak! Hiking rates now to fight energy inflation that is already dissipating on its own makes zero economic sense.

All this Fed uncertainty ended up sending the Dollar surging globally, pushing EUR/USD from 1.16 down to 1.136.

This surge in the US currency triggered a "denominator effect" that mechanically dragged down Gold, Bitcoin, and further exacerbated Oil's decline. Since these assets are all priced in USD, they face automatic mechanical pressure whenever the dollar rises. It’s not a loss of intrinsic value; it’s a currency effect.

That's why I don't see a trend reversal here. I see a technical reflex and a short-term correction, especially in certain names.

The real test of market resilience happens today after the Wall Street close, with Micron’s ($MU) earnings.

With memory chip supply sold out and structural demand showing no signs of slowing down, this recent dip in valuations could be the perfect window of opportunity to add to positions. But everything will hinge on the guidance the company presents.

Short-term macro volatility shouldn't be mistaken for the end of a secular trend. I strongly believe that the AI thesis remains completely intact and that the sector still has substantial upside. After all, risk premium is bought in discomfort, not euphoria.

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

Just in
$FRO $DHT

https://t.co/8XrWyj02UQ

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

🔴 Stocks of crude oil in the US SPR fall by about 9.1 mln to 331.2 mln barrel last week, lowest since 1983.

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

Iran is pumping crude through the strait at the highest rate since the war began. 3 sanctioned VLCCs alone carrying ~6M barrels (Bloomberg).

Although flows are back to ~25% of pre-war, they're still not "restored." And a big share of today's volume is sanctioned Iranian crude going dark to China, shadow-fleet barrels that don't touch a single listed owner's deck.

Near-zero fleet growth. ~20% of the crude fleet sanctioned. The US strategic reserve at its lowest since 1983, refilling it is forced, multi-quarter crude demand.

On my radar --> 3 ways in, 3 risk profiles:
$DHT (pure VLCC), highest beta to the disruption.
$STNG (product tankers), swung from $3.1B debt to net cash (=Quality)
$FRO (the bellwether)

https://t.co/C1MjV93Gs0

[J Mintzmyer @mintzmyer]

Two VLCCs just fixed for over $200k/day round voyage! I believe this is just the beginning of a potentially epic #tanker #shipping run.

There is nothing more near-term bullish than a full bore SoH reopening… but the market has been sleeping! 🤷‍♂️

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

Starlink is a generational business. I want to own it.
Just not at a price built on a 4.3% float, 1,251 mentions of "AI," and a $26.5T TAM claim.

The dates are in the table above.

I'll be watching each one.

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

$SPCX keeps rising and nobody seems to care about the math.

IPO at $135.
+20% on day 1.
+20% on day 2.
+15% today, reaching $220

That's +63% from IPO price in under 3 days.

Most people think this is still cheap.

They haven't read the lock-up schedule.

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

The real trade isn't $SPCX itself.

It's what gets sold to buy it. And it's what happens when lock-up waves hit..

At $220, the performance trigger is already met.

The Aug 11 unlock isn't 20%.. It's 30% of all locked shares.

Free float goes from under 5% today to ~30% overnight.
That's not a forecast. It's scheduled.

If this corrects toward $80–$100 as unlock waves compound, that may be one of the best entries of the decade.

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

$SPOT According to Bloomberg, executives see mid-teens revenue CAGR by 2030

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

$SPOT is down 15%. Algos & retail are dumping on "weak" Q2 guidance and FX-driven ad misses. They are missing the forest for the trees.

The core business is a cash-printing machine right now:
Record FCF: €824M (+54% YoY)
OpEx still steadily declining (-5% YoY)
Premium Gross Mg & ARPU at record highs
761M MAUs (+12% YoY)

Ad-revenue actually grew 3% on constant currency. The Q2 guidance? Pure sandbagging following the recent CEO transition. Also, the lower operating income guide includes a €10M "social charges" hit because the stock performed so well. The slower sub growth is a deliberate shift to prioritize ARPU over blind acquisition.

With expanding margins, the PEG ratio just got heavily discounted. A 15% haircut on FX noise and accounting quirks is a gift!

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

@moninvestor @GlobalCollapse Still do?

https://t.co/Gy6j94krJ2

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

"I see a violent repricing imminent!"

This was my call on $INOD back on April 15th when the market was asleep at the wheel.

Today, the stock is up ~100% after the results.

Working with 5 out of the "Magnificent 7" + $PLTR, Innodata is an AI execution powerhouse. 47% gross margins and 453% Big Tech revenue growth.

Fundamentals always win in the end.

$MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META $AAPL

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

@willrowley2 @moninvestor Hard to top $SNDK but $INOD is executing a great strategy for the AI era. Called it weeks ago and the market is finally waking up. The past session is just a validation of the thesis.

https://t.co/Gy6j94krJ2

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

"I see a violent repricing imminent!"

This was my call on $INOD back on April 15th when the market was asleep at the wheel.

Today, the stock is up ~100% after the results.

Working with 5 out of the "Magnificent 7" + $PLTR, Innodata is an AI execution powerhouse. 47% gross margins and 453% Big Tech revenue growth.

Fundamentals always win in the end.

$MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META $AAPL

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

"I see a violent repricing imminent!"

This was my call on $INOD back on April 15th when the market was asleep at the wheel.

Today, the stock is up ~100% after the results.

Working with 5 out of the "Magnificent 7" + $PLTR, Innodata is an AI execution powerhouse. 47% gross margins and 453% Big Tech revenue growth.

Fundamentals always win in the end.

$MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META $AAPL

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

The disconnect on $INOD is staggering. The broader market hits ATHs while it continues to lag, completely ignoring fundamentals. They count 5 out of the Mag 7 as clients and secured a major contract with $PLTR earlier this year. The market is asleep at the wheel. I see a violent repricing imminent!

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

https://t.co/ivZxFVCt7w

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

$INOD Q1'26: The "Conviction" Quarter.

Innodata shattered expectations with a 54% revenue surge ($90.1M). The bear thesis on customer concentration was violently disproved, with non-primary Big Tech revenue skyrocketing 453% YoY. The strategic pivot to high-value AI engineering is executing at scale.

Key takeaways:
Adj. Gross Margin hit 47%, proving the shift away from commodity data.
Adj. EBITDA nearly doubled (+96% YoY), showing massive operating leverage.
FY26 Revenue Guidance raised to 40%+.

Still, they reduced segment transparency and conservative guidance vs a massive Q1 beat.

Nevertheless, pure execution! 🟢🟢

https://t.co/ND1va87Ybi

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

$INOD up 53% in pre-market. The market is finally waking up to the massive margin expansion and the reduction of customer concentration risk. Re-rating is just getting started as operating leverage kicks in.

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

The disconnect on $INOD is staggering. The broader market hits ATHs while it continues to lag, completely ignoring fundamentals. They count 5 out of the Mag 7 as clients and secured a major contract with $PLTR earlier this year. The market is asleep at the wheel. I see a violent repricing imminent!

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

Have you checked Spanish Solaria $SLR?
With an 18.9 GW pipeline and a massive land bank in Iberia, they are the obvious infrastructure play as the AI Cloud expansion hits Europe.
They’ve already pivoted toward Data Centers, securing grid access for several projects. If $IREN is validating Spain as a Tier-1 hub, Solaria’s grid-connected portfolio is a gold mine.

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

$INOD Q1'26: The "Conviction" Quarter.

Innodata shattered expectations with a 54% revenue surge ($90.1M). The bear thesis on customer concentration was violently disproved, with non-primary Big Tech revenue skyrocketing 453% YoY. The strategic pivot to high-value AI engineering is executing at scale.

Key takeaways:
Adj. Gross Margin hit 47%, proving the shift away from commodity data.
Adj. EBITDA nearly doubled (+96% YoY), showing massive operating leverage.
FY26 Revenue Guidance raised to 40%+.

Still, they reduced segment transparency and conservative guidance vs a massive Q1 beat.

Nevertheless, pure execution! 🟢🟢

https://t.co/ND1va87Ybi

[B. Angelo | βα @BAInvesting]

$INOD The inefficiency is starting to correct, but I believe we are still at the very beginning of this move. The underlying fundamentals dictate a much deeper repricing.
Staying focused!