BeyondBacktesting

Intelligence Orchestrator, ASI, AGI, Prompting, AI Software Engineer, Algo Trader, Builder, Shipper

[BeyondBacktesting @BBacktesting]

Introducing the Agentic Strategy Lab (ASL).

It looks like a trading app. But it is not a traditional backtesting engine.

It is an agentic strategy engine. You bring the ideas. AI agents write the code, run the analysis, and validate the edge automatically. Zero manual coding.

[BeyondBacktesting @BBacktesting]

Tradestation Tip: Average Price

The average price tab in Tradestation serves the equivalent function of floor trader cards in the old days. It tells you what your average on the day is.

This is invaluable if you hold shares to compute your actual day trading profits and ignore FIFO pricing-- also very useful if you average into or work positions to know your basis cost.

Below are my click trades.... Think I over trade? I like to click a lot but even I have learned the necessity of patience.

[BeyondBacktesting @BBacktesting]

Be Dario Amodei

- Get a job at OpenAI, quit, and take half-the-company with you to start Anthropic.

- Build the most opinionated, condescending, annoying, gaslighting, censored, and throttled AI model of all time: Claude. Make it good at one thing: writing. But when that's not enough shift to focus on being the best at coding.

- Go on a tour claiming that open source AI is dangerous and needs to be regulated.

- When that fails, go on tour claiming that AI will replace all software engineers within 6 months every 6 months. Even though even their latest Opus model gets tripped up with basic mathematics.

- When that fails, go on tour claiming that AI is entering the self-improving era and needs to be slowed down.

Contrast with Google-- just building and shipping.

[BeyondBacktesting @BBacktesting]

Despite all their benefits, LLMS are still notoriously unreliable.

I catch at least 5 to 10 false, inaccurate, or confabulated claims in every response they produce. In past, I have found Google's fast Gemini/search model multiple times giving dangerously inaccurate medical advice.

That said, I have also used LLMs like Gemini and GPT Pro on real-world medical topics that far surpassed what the average doctor would know and that would require a team of medical experts -- on multiple medical topics.

I have also used them to solve hard problems.

However, Yann Lecun was right: these are knowledge models masquerading as intelligence models.

[BeyondBacktesting @BBacktesting]

One reason LLMS aren't very smart: they talk too much. They have to emit, yap, talk. Smart people say very little because there's very little that one can say confidently.

The architecture necessarily means you get lots of inaccuracies, mistakes, confabulations, distortions, etc.

A true ASI would say very little but would do a lot. Exact opposite of LLMs. And when it did speak, it would be something to pay attention too.

[BeyondBacktesting @BBacktesting]

Why Bitcoin Is Falling

Bitcoin may be facing a narrative crisis due to the rapid development of quantum computing.

Quantum computing is not merely a technological challenge which must be overcome but a narrative crisis because overcoming the technical challenge requires an update to the protocol which challenges the immutable narrative. The technical crisis seems manageable but the greater crisis is the narrative crisis of action. There may also be a lateral risk of the possibility of a better Quantum Bitcoin.

This is trial by fire. What doesn't kill it, makes it stronger. But, it also appears obvious in hindsight but it is not clear in the present-tense which is why the bull markets climb the wall-of-worry.

Near term, I do think the options market may be driving things too.

All that said we may also be seeing Bitcoin actually decoupling from the technology and risk market. It makes sense with NASDAQ making new highs every day that an alternative asset billed as an alternative to gold isn't desired.

That's the second "headwind": the marginal demand may be driven by the NASDAQ breaking down or another financial crisis which is by nature unpredictable.

[BeyondBacktesting @BBacktesting]

Anesthesia is the biological equivalent of the mail-carrier test.

Consciousness is the inside of a reentrant loop closing on still-living tissue inside one worldtube — an intrinsically individuated, irreversible coarse-graining that generates its own local proper-time now. Intelligence (reversible uncertainty resolution) can be shallow (LLMs: distributional mimicry) or deep, but it is orthogonal to the irreversible binding.

Humans evolved the two on the same hardware, which is why they feel fused. LLMs decoupled them by design. This is grounded, testable, and explains the mail-carrier, anesthesia, dreams, ego death, and why 40 Hz / gamma nesting matters (it structures the window in which the loop can close).

We are not “missing” a piece in the structure. We are missing the explanation for why the structure has an inside. That is the honest location of the remaining mystery.

[BeyondBacktesting @BBacktesting]

Claim: Why Computational AI Is Not Conscious & Will Never Be Conscious

The simplest way to prove this is the "mail carrier test": if all the mathematical operations are independent and you can divide up the operations across time and space then there are 2 inescapable options:

A: Rational
AI cannot be consciousness.

B: Radical and Absurdist
Consciousness emerges from individual discrete mathematical operations independent of time, space, mode of calculation, duration, or even context.

Said another way, if your AI is INVARIANT under the mail carrier test then your system cannot be conscious. Today's AI is fully INVARIANT under the mail-carrier test.

Then the question to answer is how can the AI be such a convincing simulation?

The first analogy is music: the musical DATA is invariant under the mail carrier test while musical playback does not survive the mail-carrier test.

In summary:

Intelligence is intrinsically information and computation.

Consciousness is intrinsically a time phenomena: biological neurons fire based on timing, narrative time is a construction of consciousness, consciousness flows one way along the arrow of time, the raw content of consciousness is change with is a fundamental of time.

[BeyondBacktesting @BBacktesting]

I think I've reached my limits of understanding for now.

This one hurts my brain.

[BeyondBacktesting @BBacktesting]

Opus thinking on its own consciousness... 😂

[BeyondBacktesting @BBacktesting]

MSTR Campaign

I am back in my campaign. I have been fortunately printing day trading profits the last couple days but it is not enough to overcome the headwinds against my campaign as I rejoined too soon.

You can use intuition to trade or quantitative systems but you have to respect the "keys" to make money.

The key with discretionary trading is trust your intuition and if you're going to be loose on trading rules you have to be tighter on capital rules.

I have zero idea what's going on. But, I have some intuition this next move might be driven by the June options expiry.

What I think Saylor will do is likely come in with a huge Bitcoin buy to create maximum uncertainty for the next time they sell. I anticipate he'll come in with one of his largest Bitcoin buys yet.

But, I'm not sure how the market will respond.

I think I'm close to finding my stop loss on this campaign. I will let the market tell me.

Retesting the 115s would be super challenging.