Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate

Financial Planner (IAR) | Elevating personal financial planning through trust and duty with an investment management focus

[Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate @BDools2]

Take note that $BRK made a point to the press that Buffett had no involvement in the Taylor Morrison deal - all Abel

Not yet the case with the $goog deal which surely had some behind the scene discussions in advance. Buffdog approved ?

[Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate @BDools2]

@SouthernValue95 @ChrisBloomstran Wasn’t on my bingo card… this may deserve a few pages from Chris in the Semper annual letter

[Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate @BDools2]

@TheNarrenschiff The word most is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Mostly true

[Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate @BDools2]

@JBierne BRK likely nearing multi year bottom. next couple quarters

[Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate @BDools2]

@BourbonCap

[Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate @BDools2]

This is narrative driven and a bit extreme in both directions

He has not been piling cash since 2020, actually it’s been fairly stable as a % of firm assets up until just the last 2 years

Berkshire has bought back $70 billion in stock since 2020, 11.3% of shares, at an average price of $255

Not sure what your definition of massive is but… You’d be hard pressed to find a better managed buyback program over the period. large reason for trouncing the S&P since 2020, up until just the last 6 months or so

Lastly, a Great Recession and lost decade is not really a requirement for liquid optionality to work out well within the firm, although it would sure help. Market instability and liquidity issues happen more often than 10 or 20 years

I agree it’s going to be a challenge near term, but buybacks will almost certainly be the default to relieve pressure while compounding continues. Downside is getting closer to nada with positioning & valuation here.. invest through the windshield not the rear view

[Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate @BDools2]

Much more aggressive than expected buybacks are gonna put in a floor before too long. The ole 2020 playbook: show up to the AGM with very little Q1 news, ho-hum deployment -> stock falters -> ramp it up in Q2

Now for organic cash flow growth within the business the next five years… is a separate issue that is the difference between 1.5x an 1.8x for now

Getting closer to the ole “just buy it and go to the beach” here

[Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate @BDools2]

@neilcybart What if we exclude all 500 companies from the S&P 500

[Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate @BDools2]

@SouthernValue95 @Greenbackd @farnamjake1 @ChrisBloomstran Yes

[Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate @BDools2]

That’s a very short track record, and for half of it I’m guessing was the opposite result (as of 12 months ago). If we are talking 12-24 month reporting than I guess I’m in the wrong conversation

MSR as a whole & insurance had a nice run post Covid. Otherwise agree that average of the Opco’s have been underwhelming, yet full company results / returns still pretty good “on balance”, no? Lot of different engines here. naming the specific units sounds worse than actual impact - most are fairly small % representations, some could be written off entirely and no one would notice. especially viewing fwd value creation

Buybacks certainly can & likely will add to return vs sitting in t-bills. Not sure your logic there, nor how you can predict underwriting or interest rates. I have no idea what reported earnings will be yoy for 2026

We can agree to disagree on BRK. I can come up with a lot larger complaints for most other assets to buy. This is a 75% holding in my book

[Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate @BDools2]

Fair enough, my memory may be off. Unless you believe today’s market price is significantly overvalued, I’m not sure what time period of measurement has been disappointing enough to be this negative? Obviously there has been solid value creation “on balance” despite winners and losers

I did not mean to imply we are at 2021 valuation levels, it’s not, but not super far either. I said relative value as in opportunity costs, most notably to SPY, although compared to treasuries this isn’t even close to 2021.

Yes we do want forward returns. and just like a balance sheet, today is a static point in time. There may be nothing with AAPL potential this year, next year, or the following but that could have been said in 2015 too. that’s not to say $100 billion won’t be put to work at similar optionality. Likely? No. Possible with time, yes

I’m not making numbers up nor is it a huge stretch. Real organic look thru earnings growth 2%, CPI 3%, buyback yield 3%, any balance sheet shift / acquisitions/value rerate can pull either way +/- . There is no reason that’s shareholder friendly not to ramp buybacks from here fwd, I’ll take the over on what’s expected. Shrinking the company that way is the easiest value creation LT

Buybacks at a 5.5% earnings yield with excess cash while the market trading at 4% EY is what you do when there’s nothing to do. If mediocre is HSD IRR with low risk when assets in general are fully bid I’m not sure that’s worth complaint

[Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate @BDools2]

Nice visuals. And good example:

The more people you help in this role labeled as “personal financial planner”, the more it actually seems like a role of a translator in communication

Converting the complex language of technical finance to the everyday person, all to encourage positive decision making

mix in some behavioral therapy, and of course the absolutely wicked technical details of comprehensive and interconnected personal finance scopes, and we decided to settle on “financial advisor” or “financial planner”?

Labels with negative connotations from 1980-2010 product pushing

Collectively - we’ve gotta come up with a better label for the guys doing this right. It’s so much higher level than “financial advisor”

[Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate @BDools2]

@FarvingCo Screenshotting and sending this might be the very last thing I would do to someone losing their memory

[Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate @BDools2]

Anon, do you know that Berkshire is actively reducing share count at recent prices and you don’t have to seek individual equity risk to benefit from tax-deferred compounding?

[Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate @BDools2]

@SleeperHQ The nba is a joke

[Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate @BDools2]

Clickbait without context…

Isn’t the stated test to justify a dividend essentially a sustained valuation at a price to book value of 1x or lower (-33% in price from here)?

Seems highly improbable over any forecastable timeframe. We won’t see a dividend in Abel’s tenure, absent a major impairment of value… for the better

[Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate @BDools2]

https://t.co/YtwBOthzib 😴

[Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate @BDools2]

Alright let’s go ahead and get Greg Abel up and moving in the bullpen…
May see some debut buybacks here in Q1 $BRKB $BRKA

[Bryce Dooley, ChFC® Candidate @BDools2]

@StoneHillWealth IMO this was the biggest disappointment in the report. Not seeing the rationale there. It’s Abel’s show