BFHBiotech

AbbVie Neuro. Ex-LEK Biopharma Strategy. Ex-REGN R&D. Industry nerd and drug hunter. Opinions are my own.

[Professor Oak @Prof_Oak_]

Due to popular demand, after a brief hiatus, Oak’s ASGCT abstract dump is back - now it’s 5th installment, better than ever

Posting later than I’d hoped - still shaking off the rust - but the show must go on; & what’s better than starting ASGCT Day 2 with the thread you needed 2 weeks ago?

(1/21)

[Aaron Ring @aaronmring]

Autoantibodies cause autoimmune disease, shape infection outcomes, and alter cancer immunotherapy. But what role might they play in neuropsychiatric disease? In our new preprint, Katlyn Nemani and @JillianRJaycox take on this question in schizophrenia. 🧵
https://t.co/lmL4sx7QSz

[BFHBiotech @BFHBiotech]

@Prof_Oak_ @aaronmring Super interesting work. Immune reset approaches about to move into refractory psych? ;)

[Aaron Ring @aaronmring]

Drug hunters everywhere, sear the lesson of Revmed and daraxonrasib in your brain:

Life is too short for incrementally me-too and me-better. Drug the fucking undruggrable and you can double OS, even in pancreatic cancer.

Absolutely inspiring. LFG.

[Jack Scannell @JackScannell13]

It may be that failure to count competitors stampeding towards your de-risked target is now the single biggest reason drug R&D programs fail in Phase 2 & 3.

"Commercial" termination overtakes "efficacy" circa 2019: https://t.co/xnqjAGiBMi

Recent oncology example (TIGIT herding): https://t.co/TUAdjnm7Px

[Professor Oak @Prof_Oak_]

Scattered compilation of between-the-lines tidbits that stood out amongst the thousands of JPM slides ingested last week $XBI

[Paras Sharma @paras_biotech]

Biotech is a lottery business: most drugs fail, a few wins pay for everything.

BridgeBio’s insight: manage biotech like a portfolio, not a single bet ($10M to IND & $25M IND to POC)

Source: https://t.co/8WpCVMfBbz

[Sam Davis @SamDavisEsq]

Earnouts are mostly illusory. Across life‑sciences M&A since 2008, SRS Acquiom finds $95.1B in potential milestones, $9B paid = 9.5% of potential value realized. https://t.co/dptorrzD60
In Bio/Pharma specifically, only 7% of earnout dollars were paid according to their 2023 lifesciences study. https://t.co/RqLNw4x6Zj

[Professor Oak @Prof_Oak_]

Another distillation of the forthcoming inflection in SMid biotech profitability from Morgan Stanley $XBI $NBI $BBC

Projected 14% topline ’25-30 CAGR, with aggregate EBITDA reaching ~$40B at a mid-teens ROE. At historical multiples, implies a 10-14% CAGR for NBI through 2030

And with current commercial-stage valuations still lagging historical averages, hard to argue the setup isn’t attractive

[Matthew Kirshner @MattyKirsh]

China vs. US biotech in a nutshell: $340M vs $22M to Ph1 in vivo CART data

- Capstan Therapeutics: Founded 2022, raised $340M, launched Ph1 for in vivo CAR-T in June 2025 (3yrs + $340M to Ph1), bought for $2.1B by @abbvie

- Starna: Founded 2021, raised $22M, launched Ph1 in June 2025 (4yrs + $22M to Ph1), just raised $44M Series B; note they also spent some time/money on a vaccine platform prior to the in vivo CART work

[Professor Oak @Prof_Oak_]

“Tx w/ prednisolone, mesalamine, infliximab, ustekinumab, ozanimod, filgotinib, vedolizumab, upadacitinib, & cyclosporine + mirikizumab had not induced remission”

Sheesh. Imagine that journey

Then, <1M after CAR-T, you’re in remission, off drugs, 20lbs heavier, & back to work

[Professor Oak @Prof_Oak_]

Have followed $ARGX MuSK Agonist for years - simply b/c it’s an elegant scientific story (MOA inspired by autoAbs in MG), & the preclinical data are striking

$ARGX announced Ph1b success in June, along with bullish comments re: functional benefit

Those data, disclosed yesterday, fail to match the description. Selective disclosure & perplexing development decisions - atypical for this company / team - further muddy the water

It all feels shockingly non-Argenx, and I’m not sure what to make of it

[John Maraganore 🇺🇸🇬🇷🇺🇦 @JMaraganore]

This. Is. What. Makes. Biotech. Great!

“Regeneron’s relentless pursuit of science and use of proprietary technologies to improve the lives of people with debilitating and life-threatening diseases, no matter their prevalence.” https://t.co/RPDcWqBcvX

[Paras Sharma @paras_biotech]

China has scaled R&D rapidly, but has yet to prove it can deliver globally dominant first-in-class drugs.

Source: https://t.co/4q6Z3lngAQ

[BowTiedBiotech 🧪🔬🧬 @BowTiedBiotech]

Why Corporate VCs Just Took Over Biotech Funding

Crossovers left. Corporates stepped in.

Now they’re not just sprinkling checks, they’re leading rounds, shaping trial endpoints, and pre-wiring the M&A path.

Know your audience. If you’re raising, you’re not selling “platform optionality.” You’re selling a pipeline gap filler on a corporate’s 2028 LoE slide.

Fundable today = fast human data that aligns to a buyer’s P&L.

Not “possible,” not “innovative,” but acquirable.

[Crémieux @cremieuxrecueil]

Per @GoldmanSachs, pharmacy benefit managers account for a fifth of the cost of producing drugs in the U.S.

That's a lot of added cost thanks to some easily removed middlemen!

[Professor Oak @Prof_Oak_]

During biotech’s retrenchment, the shift toward validated and/or “hot” targets has been palpable

Two recent reports nicely visualize this trend of increasing competitive intensity, as well as its influence across the full life cycle of asset development $XBI $BBC

[Nature Reviews Drug Discovery @NatRevDrugDisc]

The race to reset autoimmune diseases https://t.co/QPKFw21JPV

This new article analyses the characteristics of drugs in development that aim to reset the immune system to treat autoimmune diseases, such as CAR-T cells that deplete B cells, and key trends in the field

[Professor Oak @Prof_Oak_]

ACT-EARLY is worth watching, not only for ATTR but for genetic diseases writ large $BBIO

Prophylactic therapeutic intervention in genetically-confirmed patients with the goal of delaying clinical diagnosis

Creative and interesting model that could be replicated elsewhere

[Sports_Bios @Sports_bios]

People are crazy to do these trades - People should have expected problematic $BMY Camzyos data based on the MAVERICK-nHCM trial - Different from REDWOOD Cohort 4 in Afi - if anything - IF $CYTK Afi wins in nHCM - in any way - just being stats sign w/ KCCQ - would be all by itself - .. $EWTX nHCM data got the black marks w/ Afib concerns..