Last lines of Scott Fitzgerald’s novel The Great Gatsby were
“So we beat on, boats against the current , borne back ceaselessly into the past”
Can this be attributed with what is happening in the world today ?
4 reframes from my conversation with @BIVALKAR :
• FIIs are tourists, their exit is not equal to your exit
• 12% compounding is a big number
• SIPs work because they remove you from the equation.
• Your Savings rate is more important to track than fund NAV.
Full Episode on Youtube. Link in bio 👇
https://t.co/cFoj3izxFE
New Zealand brought the Kiwis, India brought the knife. Fruit salad finished early.
Congratulations India !
3rd Time T20 World Champions
Bharat Mata ki Jai !
On the recent categorisation circular
My understanding
1. Fewer Similar Products
2.Goodbye to Old Solution Funds
3.Rise of Lifecycle Investing
4. Real Multi-Asset Investing Begins
5.A Shift in How AMCs Compete
6. Smarter Investor Journeys
7. Focus Moves from Funds to Portfolios
8. Revenue models based on product proliferation may weaken.
And to sum it up
The future of differentiation will not lie in:
“What fund to buy”
But in:
“How portfolios are built and evolve over time”
🚨Private credit is flashing a warning sign last seen before the Great Financial Crisis:
Blue Owl Capital permanently halted investor redemptions at its retail private credit fund, OBDC II, backtracking from an earlier plan to reopen withdrawals.
The fund has been closed to redemptions since November 2025 after a failed merger that would have forced investors to take a -20% hit.
Redemptions in Q3 2025 nearly DOUBLED to $60 million, or 6% of the net asset value, forcing the firm to sell -$1.4 billion in credit assets across 3 funds.
The $1.4 billion portfolio sold spans 128 companies across 27 industries, with 13% of the loans concentrated in internet and software businesses, sectors increasingly vulnerable to AI disruption.
This comes as scrutiny into private credit loan quality intensifies after a string of high-profile defaults.
In August 2007, BNP Paribas freezing 3 funds due to "complete evaporation of liquidity" became the first domino of the Global Financial Crisis.
Blue Owl is not BNP Paribas, and private credit is not subprime mortgages, but the pattern of locking investors out when redemptions surge is familiar.
When a fund stops letting investors leave, it is no longer a liquidity issue.
It is a solvency question.
Everyone loves the story of quiet strength.
Staying non aligned.
Being everyone’s partner.
Having scale , youth and demand on our side.
But history is unkind to countries that believe potential automatically converts into power.
A large population can be a dividend.
It can also become a liability if jobs skills and productivity do not compound faster than expectations.A growing consumer market excites investors until income growth lags aspiration.
India’s decade will not be decided by demographics or diplomacy alone.
It will be decided by execution reform speed and whether scale turns into efficiency not friction.
The opportunity is real.
So is the risk of mistaking patience for progress.
The next ten years will not reward balance.
They will reward outcomes.
Amit
Introducing our next speaker, @maulikhpatel ,Head of Research at Equirus Securities. With over 15 years in equity research,he brings sharp sector expertise.He is ranked among the Top 10 sell-side analysts in Oil & Gas by leading institutional investors.
Join us in conversations!
During the Covid period when the markets had fallen sharply it was indeed a golden opportunity to invest, but only for those who truly understand the meaning of the word investment.
Those who enter the markets chasing fast and quick money become easy prey for fraudsters, self-proclaimed gurus and gullible share market classes that promise impossible returns.
With the hope that their money will double or triple in a day, many people borrow heavily, jump into trading and F and O, and eventually drown in debt.
Let this be a reminder.
Wealth is built with patience, wisdom and discipline, not with greed, haste or shortcuts.
The market rewards investors, not gamblers.
If long term Japanese bond yields and the USD JPY move sharply at the same time, then you should get ready. This is usually how financial trouble begins. As they say in Bollywood, when two enemies show up at the same time, the hero knows the real fight has started.
And if you want only three things to check every morning, these are enough. They explain most of what is happening in global markets.
1.The 10 year Japanese Government Bond yield
This tells you if stress is rising in Japan.
2.The USD JPY rate
If the yen suddenly becomes stronger, it means carry trades are closing and markets can turn risky.
3.The US 10 year Treasury yield
This is the world’s most important interest rate. When this moves, global equity valuations usually feel the pressure.
If all three are calm, the market usually stays steady.
If even two start moving sharply together, then like a hero sensing trouble, it is better to stay alert.
Nifty 50 Q2 FY25 snapshot:
Sales up 10%, profits up 9% , steady but not spectacular. Leadership is narrow: Airtel, Titan, Adani Ports, M&M drive the gains, while IT, pharma, energy and airlines drag with margin pressure. Broad takeaway: Topline is holding up, but operating leverage is missing. Markets will reward stock-specific strength, not sectors.
Music & money - more alike than you think!
@BIVALKAR, Founder, @SapientFinserv sees more similarities than you would think.
Like music, investing needs notes, rhythm & discipline play it right, it’s harmony; miss one, it’s noise.
Catch him on #AltTalksBeginYourNext soon!
One of my acquaintance’s son who was at a dinner yesterday told me he “plays” the stock market , I asked why ? he said because he has loans !!!
If you’re trapped in debt, don’t look to the stock market for rescue.
It won’t save you, it will tempt you.
First, clear your debts.
Then build discipline, not risk.
Stability comes before strategy.
Only when your base is steady should you step into the market with purpose, not pressure. @SapientFinserv@Equiruswealth
@PMCPune on the Garware college bridge going from karve road to Vaikunth both left and right side. Please take appropriate action on the people as well , by installing cameras to identify.