$BTC/crypto thoughts:
The failure of $BTC to really follow the broader markets here is ominous in my opinion. $ETH and Alts are back to rock bottom.
The problem brewing here is the broader markets are looking toppy and $BTC loves to dump with the market. As high oil/high inflation start to have bigger and bigger impact, seems likely the algos will dump $BTC on every piece of news.
But many like to point to the Clarity Act as a positive catalyst. To me, this is just another goal post. This Act still has lots of hoops and then the slow process of implementing everything. Odds are this is just an ongoing nothingburger.
The stars seem to be aligning for $BTC to not do much of anything for the next 6 months. Anemic rallys and dumps, rinse and repeat. The real question is whether the lows will hold at 60K if the broader market turbo nukes. Honestly, no idea. If we start testing 60K or lower, proxies will get killed (>50% dumps likely) and many Alts will find even lower lows. Could see a major wave of treasuries and miners dumping BTC to survive.
There are endless reasons why $BTC should be much higher now, many of them discussed before. I have no answers as to why $BTC is lagging - just speculative thoughts. I'm just resigned to the fact that 2026 is not the year for $BTC. Likely will have to wait until 2027 or later for any real movement.
I would absolutely love to be wrong here, but after the 2+ years of failed catalysts - odds are this sector is dead for the time being. $BTC would have to swim upstream to move higher and I've seen no ability to do that in the ETF era.
I have my bags packed and I will just wait it out. Perhaps something positive will emerge in the coming months. Until then there are better things to do than follow this sector.