Bernard Markstein

Consulting Economist with expertise in real estate, residential and nonresidential construction, and macroeconomic issues

[Bernard Markstein @BMarkstein]

Fed Chair Janet Yellen (with me) at the National Economists Club Annual Meeting, Oct. 20, 2017

[Bernard Markstein @BMarkstein]

March state #Construction #Unemployment rates. How did your state do? https://t.co/2dvWGHOZui

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

So you're telling me that cutting tariffs leads to lower prices?

Fascinating.

[Brian Willott Farms @BrianWillott]

They should change the name to "Strait of Schrödinger". It's both open and closed at the same time.

[Bernard Markstein @BMarkstein]

December 2025 state #Construction #Unemployment rates under 8% in all but 5 states. https://t.co/rWzjOt08qQ

[ABC National @ABCNational]

"On the positive side, a somewhat easier policy stance by the Federal Reserve has resulted in lower interest rates. Further declines in interest rates are likely in 2026."

https://t.co/QFY7MdOzWA

#ABCMeritShopProud

[Bernard Markstein @BMarkstein]

September 2025 state #Construction #Unemployment rates under 10% in all states. https://t.co/m2MWaZCeVq

[Bernard Markstein @BMarkstein]

September state #Construction #Unemployment rates. How did your state do? https://t.co/lL9bOe1LuL @ABCNational

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

On inflation and the tariffs: "Foreign countries aren't giving us discounts. They're not eating the tariffs. Some of it's going through to the grocery store, but a lot of it's coming out of the profits of big corporations. That's not going to happen forever "

[Bernard Markstein @BMarkstein]

Guess if you don't measure it, the problem goes away.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

The Trump administration is canceling an annual government effort to gather data on how many Americans struggle to get enough food that the Agriculture Department began collecting in the mid-90s

Employees were told the survey wouldn’t be funded this year https://t.co/ArLdjPyLl2

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

Think of an economy as like baking a cake. H1-B visas exist so that if you're out of a specific ingredient, you can Instacart it and keep baking. Add a $100k delivery charge and you'll choose to:
1. Quit baking; or
2. Use an inferior recipe; or
3. Import cake instead of making it

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

You can’t bend reality; you can shatter trust. Politicized stats fool no one—markets, the Fed, and CEOs will ignore propaganda—but they will all suffer without reliable data. Break the thermometer, and you still have a fever. And without reliable diagnostic tools, you won't get the right medicine.

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

It's almost too perfect when the only "analyst" supporting EJ Antoni can't even read a pie chart correctly.

[Bernard Markstein @BMarkstein]

Don't buy the administration line that tariffs don't lead to higher prices. Here's a simple explanation of why that is wrong.

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

Lemme graph what he's trying to say:
P | \ AS2 = AS1 + tariff
| \ /←/AS = marginal cost
| \/ /
↑ | /\ /
| / /\
| / / \AD: Y=MV/P
‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾Output

Notice that P rises. Inflation is rising P.

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

Put a useful idiot in charge of economic statistics and we suddenly get a reason to suspend our most valuable and reliable measures, just as the economy is slowing. It's cooking the books by erasing inconvenient numbers. Indefensibly destructive, economically harmful, and markets will hate it.

[John Stossel @JohnStossel]

Last time Trump put tariffs on steel, American steelmakers hired 1,000 more people.

That's great. But companies that MAKE things out of steel lost 75,000 jobs!

Tariffs hurt more than they help.

Economist @scottlincicome explains in my new video:

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

Firing the BLS Commissioner — the wonk in charge of the statisticians who track economic reality — is an authoritarian four alarm fire.

It will also backfire: You can't bend economic reality, but you can break the trust of markets. And biased data yields worse policy.

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

Folks who won't be fooled by politicized official economic statistics:
- The Fed
- The bond market
- The stock market
- Foreign investors

Folks who will be flying blind in the absence of reliable econ data:
- All of the above
- Small biz
- Big biz
- Voters

[Bernard Markstein @BMarkstein]

June 2024 state #Construction #Unemployment rates under 10% in all states. https://t.co/FD59u4jFqA