Recap: Today’s chase was nothing short of insane. I had my doubts earlier this morning regarding the MCS, but supercells that formed in the warm sector took full advantage of the volatile environment and ended up dropping multiple large tornadoes. Today will be a day to remember
My administration is closely monitoring the crash in Chatham.
As we continue to learn more, please follow the guidance of all local authorities.
Let's wrap our arms around the community tonight as we receive updates on the situation.
I came up w/ list of analogs for this year's tornado season & this is what the 1°x1° tornado track density composite grid looks like over the CONUS using @NWSSPC's database that goes back to 1950.
Note I used a 30-year sliding base period anomaly here to account for long-term non-stationary behavior in tornado data (due to better detection & increased spotting in recent years).
Although tornadoes will still certainly occur over the Great Plains, this analog composite is highlighting an *anomalous* eastward shift in tornado activity this year, with the epicenter of anomalously positive tornado activity closer to the mid-Mississippi Valley.
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In fact maybe the opposite? The same conditions that cause a storm to be dangerous (widespread coverage, fast motions, low visibility, etc) also make them more unappealing to chase. The crossover of the two is rare.