K

Frequent traveler - graduated from the window to the aisle over 1600 flights. 88 airports, 33 airlines and counting. Data backed avgeek. All content copyrighted

[K @BOMLHR]

After the highs, the lows
This lean season (July - mid September) has seen far sharper cutbacks than even previous years, driven by fuel prices as well as demand pressures. In the top 8 markets, the total daily departures in the last week of July is 20% lower than the last week of May. But this happens every year which is why the interesting comparison is with previous year July month data.
July is amongst the leanest months with lesser leisure / vacation traveling and would reflect primarily business related traffic. On that account alone, this read when seen as an indicator of business mood and activity is deeply worrying. Airlines have of course considered the high fuel prices and hence higher fares they have to charge and hence reduced capacity to manage their bottomline. It is telling when a high fixed cost capital asset is better parked than being utilised to earn a return (all airlines barring Spicejet have increased their fleet size over 2 years)
For the purposes of this assessment I have looked at catchment areas - hence Delhi NCR aggregates Delhi (DEL), Noida (DXN) and Hindon (HDO) airports and similarly for Greater Mumbai and Goa. All data across the 3 years is for the last week of July.
Now the analysis
✈️ Delhi and Mumbai are slightly down despite the addition of capacity in hitherto constrained markets. In both these markets Air India group is the primary driver of the decline while IndiGo and Akasa have expanded. BOM which had lost its #2 position to BLR in April will regain that #2 position in July (possibly earlier) while NMI & DXN provide additional capacity (Hindon is sharply de growing)
✈️Pune is the only metro to show growth where Air India Express has grown significantly and IndiGo has also added departures. Pune slots are valuable and constrained and hence will be prioritised for operations but the net additions do indicate stronger demand. Pune has also recovered it's 7th place and moved back ahead of Ahmedabad which is amongst the worst performers over 2 years
✈️Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai and Kolkata have all degrown at close to double digit rates with all carriers but in particular IndiGo have cut sharply. That said, IndiGo has replaced some ATR departures with higher capacity 320/321 aircraft so the cut in seats will be lower.
✈️The cuts in the next 7 markets is even worse with an aggregate 13% reduction and with Goa alone losing a 5th of its departures indicating an even worse lean season than previous years and painting a grim picture of leisure demand
✈️Guwahati loses the least though that is primarily a function of the Route Dispersal Guidelines (RDG) that mandate a certain percentage of north east India flights
As things stand, July should be the worst month with a sequential recovery in August & further into September. Everyone in the industry and outside will be hoping that things look better as the festive season kicks in.
@networkthoughts

[K @BOMLHR]

@LiveFromALounge I would guess so - also allows Akasa to better connect their I2D & D2I flows

[K @BOMLHR]

From 1st August, Akasa Air list all their Mumbai (BOM) flights (including domestic) from terminal 2 instead of 1. IndiGo continues to show flights from both Mumbai terminals
@networkthoughts

[K @BOMLHR]

While the big 2 are consolidating, Akasa is expanding and adding capacity on key metro routes. From July, for a period of 3 months, Akasa will fly 7 daily flights from Mumbai (BOM) to Delhi (DEL). This is in addition to daily flights from Navi Mumbai (NMI) to Delhi (DEL) as well as Mumbai (BOM) to Noida (DXN)
In addition, Akasa is going 3x daily on Delhi Pune and 5x daily on Bengaluru Pune from 1st July for 3 months
@networkthoughts

[K @BOMLHR]

IndiGo will move 5 ATR aircraft worth of flying (32 daily departures) onto A320/321 series aircraft from July 1. Prominent Sectors impacted are HYD TIR, BLR IXM & MAA IXM which lose frequencies but will gain seats. Seasonal trimming of frequencies on other sectors as well within south.
3 of these atrs will move to DXN to start ATR ops there (connecting LKO, IXC, DED, JAI, DHM, BEK, KQH with DXN) strengthening the banked transfer hub operation that IndiGo is building there
@networkthoughts

[K @BOMLHR]

Akasa & IndiGo add Mumbai (BOM) - Noida Jewar (DXN) direct daily flights from 1st and 10th July respectively. In IndiGo's case, the flight continues on to Srinagar (SXR). In both cases, BOM replaces Navi Mumbai - NMI
(IndiGo had announced but never put NMI DXN on sale)
@networkthoughts

[K @BOMLHR]

Air India Express is in the process of rejigging their BLR hub operations for the months of June and July with near term downsizing in domestic reflecting post summer break lean season &adding selectively international capacity.
The highlight is the transfer of Hyderabad Phuket to Bengaluru with a 4 weekly operation to begin with
IX 904 BLR 1035 HKT 1550
IX 903 HKT 1645 BLR 1855
4 weekly Boeing 737Max8 op

Other Changes are as below

Domestic
BLR IXC held at 2 daily for June and down to 1 daily for July
BLR LKO down from 3 to 2 daily for June but restored to 3 daily for July
BLR VNS down from 2 to 1 daily for June and back to 2 daily for July
BLR PAT held at 2 daily for June but down to 1 daily for July
BLR JAI down from 2 to 1 daily for June but restored back to 2 daily for July
BLR AMD down from 3 to 2 daily for June and further to 1 daily for July
BLR STV held at 1 daily for June, dropped for July
BLR NMI from 3 to 2 daily for June, restored back to 3 daily for July
BLR NAG from 2 to 1 daily for June, restored back to 2 daily for July
BLR BBI held at 2 daily for June, drops to 1 daily for July
BLR CCU held at 3 daily for June, drops to 2 daily for July
BLR IXB seasonal capacity increased to 3 daily for June, drops back to 2 daily for July
BLR HYD held at 7 daily for June, drops to 5 daily for July
BLR MAA from 6 to 5 daily for June, restored back to 6 daily for July
BLRTRZ from 2 weekly to 3 weekly for June and to 5 weekly for July
BLR TRV from 2 to 1 daily in June, restored to 2 daily in July
BLR COK maintained at 4 daily in June, drops to 3 daily in July
BLR CCJ from 2 daily to 8 weekly for June and July
BLR CNN (dropped for May and June), restored in July as 1 daily
BLR IXE from 3 to 2 daily for June and July
BLR GOI (Dabolim) from 17 weekly to 10 weekly for June, back up to 17 weekly in July
BLR GOX (Mopa) : 1 daily dropped for June, restored for July

Total reduction of approximately 11 daily domestic flights for June and July

International sees the following
BLR DXB 1 daily from June 
BLR AUH 1 daily restored from July 1
BLR DOH 4 weekly from June, 1 daily from July 1
BLR KWI 3 weekly restored from July 1
BLR JED 3 weekly from June
BLR RUH 3 weekly from June
BLRBKK daily in June, 4 weekly from July

Total IX daily services at BLR will be 68 daily for the month of June and close to 70 daily for July
@networkthoughts

[K @BOMLHR]

@SkyHYD @AirIndiaX @RGIAHyd @avgeekwithlens HYD PNQ has been removed though from the same date

[K @BOMLHR]

@Himansh54682552 Horses for courses - DEL for domestic to international, DXN for domestic to domestic

[K @BOMLHR]

The real potential of Noida - Jewar airport (DXN)
With the IndiGo plan for Jewar launch now available in public domain and clearly pointing to its role as a north centric domestic transit and transfer hub, now is a good time to look at what this new airport unlocks. While a lot of energy has been expended on the catchment of this airport (Delhi NCR ++) and the logistics and cost challenges with last mile connectivity, what many people miss is the location of this airport and what that unlocks by way of connectivity opportunities.
If you draw a 400 mile circle around Jewar, you will get the image below - basically the entire Hindi speaking belt (barring Bihar) is a short flight away.
Why 400 miles? IndiGo's longest scheduled ATR flights are roughly that length (HYD BHO, HYD CNN) and have a 2 hour block time. That is pretty much the maximum flight duration that works with the current IndiGo bank (departure not before 10 am, return arrival by or before 2 pm). Of course with the a320 fleet you can push that distance to include Patna, Baroda & Ahmedabad as as well.
IndiGo hasn't been able to replicate its success in BLR & HYD in driving domestic transfers through say DEL, partly because of its forced fragmentation of operations across terminals and the difficulty in securing Turboprop slots in a congested airport. These constraints do not hold for DXN and allow IndiGo to build a wider and deeper network in the north and central regions, connecting both existing stations (PGH, DHM, KQH) as well as new market opportunities as diverse as Pathankot, Bathinda, Bikaner & Rewa not to mention under construction airfields like Kota and Ujjain. Markets like Jaisalmer and Khajuraho which only get seasonal service can be served more viably with ATRS year round.
Prediction - if this works, you will see IndiGo double down on this network with more spokes by 1st September in time for the festival season, adding new flights from the remaining big cities (BOM, MAA, CCU, AMD) and more spokes with more ATR fleet moving to DXN (upguaging south regional sectors to lower frequency service with a320 fleet)
@networkthoughts
*Map created with the help of gcmap

[K @BOMLHR]

Analysing the IndiGo launch network at Noida (DXN)
IndiGo has shared its launch network at Noida Airport (DXN) and one very clear pattern is evident
This airport for IndiGo will have one role for now - as a domestic transfer hub.
Most flights are designed to bring passengers from the bigger cities (BLR, HYD, NMI, LKO, JAI, IXC) and transfer them onto smaller points beyond leveraging the ATR network (DHM, PGH, BEK, KQH) as well as a sort of scissor operation to ATQ, SXR & IXJ.
Flights from BLR, HYD, NMI, IXC, LKO and JAI reach DXN between 830 and 9 am. This is the arrival bank. There is a bank of flights departing at 0955 to DHM, ATQ, SXR, IXJ, BEK/KQH, PGH. These flights return between 1300 and 1400 (PGH DXN comes in at 1220) alongside a Jodhpur Noida flight. Departures from DXN start at 1435 with BHO as an additional spoke apart from NMI, BLR, HYD, LKO, JAI & JDH.
This is quite smart given the uncertainty of demand from the catchment given the experience at NMI where transport and last mile connectivity have been challenges. This way they can derisk the operation at DXN and test waters as well as free up capacity at DEL to focus on origin passengers
@networkthoughts

[K @BOMLHR]

For those asking, the IndiGo additions at DXN that are so far on sale (only BLR DXN IXJ and HYD DXN ATQ) are in addition to the existing departures from DEL & HDO
The additions effective July 1 (the ATR departures & NMI DXN SXR) arent yet on sale.
@networkthoughts

[K @BOMLHR]

Akasa Air adds 3 weekly Delhi Gwalior eff 4th May
QP 1572 DEL 0920 GWL 1040
QP 1573 GWL 1150 DEL 1310

[K @BOMLHR]

@SidAnandTweets @networkthoughts @AirIndiaX These are temporary additions for the month of May on existing routes where they can sense additional demand and fulfil it at short notice. Adding Purnea or any other new station can't be a 1 month only strategy

[K @BOMLHR]

Air India Express adds seasonal 3rd daily on Bengaluru Bagdogra (IXB) and resumes 1 daily Chennai Bagdogra for the month of May
IX 2406 BLR 0610 IXB 0905
IX 2409 IXB 1915 BLR 2215
Daily Boeing 737 operated

IX 2407 IXB 0945 MAA 1245
IX 2408 MAA 1545 IXB 1820
Daily Boeing 737 operated

@networkthoughts

[K @BOMLHR]

IndiGo adds 11th daily Mumbai (BOM) Ahmedabad service, 3 weekly Mumbai Ranchi service (total 10 weekly) and 4 weekly Mumbai Guwahati service from May 1 (total 18 weekly)
6E 5144 BOM 0610 AMD 0730
6E 5146 AMD 0810 BOM 0935
Daily A320 service, continues into June and further ahead

6E 924 BOM 0810 IXR 1035
6E 938 IXR 1105 BOM 1330
3 weekly service for the month of May, 320neo operating

6E 908 BOM 0830 GAU 1145
6E 912 GAU 1535 BOM 1855
4 Weekly service, 320 neo operating
Likely alternates with the BOMDAC service that runs 3 weekly till May 30
@networkthoughts

[K @BOMLHR]

Air India Express resumes seasonal 4th daily Delhi Ranchi service
IX 2378 DEL 0930 IXR 1130
IX 2379 IXR 1200 DEL 1410
Daily a320 service from 1st to 31st May