Satoshi Sovereign

Day trader calling BTC with macro, not hopium. Policy moves markets. I connect the dots. Follow for day-trade analysis with a mix of politics behind the tape.

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

Sheep for the slaughter.

Soon.

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

@EricLDaugh Is it because of Iran or is it because they are going after the deepstate.

I cant see Iran giving a crap about @AGToddBlanche but election rigging deep staters would def try to take him out if he has a case on them.

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

Republicans have until January 3.

That's the last window for voter ID, a sanctuary-city ban, border rules in writing, and $1 trillion in cuts. After that, the other side takes Congress.

Get it done, or watch the list die in committee.

@LeaderJohnThune you useless coward... put your big girl panties on and do what 80% of Americans are asking for!

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

Twice deported.

Released in 2020. Then he tried to rush a cockpit.

This is catch-and-release. No more of it.

This is the type of world we have to live in thanks to idiots that vote for and support @TheDemocrats

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇺🇸 TWICE-DEPORTED migrant threatened to BLOW UP a United flight and tried to rush the cockpit.

The 34-year-old Honduran national allegedly claimed he had a bomb on the Newark-to-New Orleans flight and moved toward the cockpit, forcing pilots to issue a hijack alert.

Crew talked him to the back, and the plane landed safely. He had been deported in 2011 and 2014, then released by a judge in 2020.

No explosives were found, but the risk was real.

Writer: Lucas

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

They want the China records because the stock already got wrecked.

Nvidia is down about 19% from late October.

This is what a messy CEO fight does to a crowded trade, and BTC is tied to it.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*TOP DEMOCRATS TARGET TRUMP ADMIN'S NVIDIA-CHINA RECORDS: WSJ
*WARREN, COONS DEMAND RECORDS ON HUANG CHINA SPY AFFAIR: WSJ

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

If DOJ proves it, she's done.

Citizenship isn't a costume you put on for a committee hearing.

The law is the law.

And according to @TheDemocrats "no one is above the law".

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 JUST NOW: Incoming House Minority Whip Rep. Tom Emmer says Ilhan Omar is "NO LONGER A CITIZEN" and "NOT ENTITLED TO SERVE IN CONGRESS" once DOJ proves the case

"I think DOJ is finalizing that! [...] My understanding is there are FOUR different things they are looking at."

DOJ is looking at whether she or her father LIED ABOUT HER BIRTH YEAR so she'd get citizenship as a minor

Her father naturalized in 2000. If she was already 18, she wouldn't have gotten it automatically ‼️

SEND THAT PIRATE BACK.

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

Bleakest in 3 years?

Higher rates, fewer buyers, prices under pressure.

That's what a hike does to a housing market, and the same squeeze is still on BTC when we hike in Dec.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇬🇧 UK estate agents gave the housing market its BLEAKEST outlook in 3 years!

The RICS survey shows sales expectations for the year ahead dropped sharply to minus 17, and price expectations fell to the same level.

Higher mortgage rates after the Bank of England’s latest hike are keeping buyers on the sidelines.

Agents are already seeing fewer enquiries, fewer deals, and pressure to cut asking prices.

Higher borrowing costs are locking the market in place.

Source: FT / Writer: Lucas

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

The stock already told you the story.

Nvidia is still down about 19% from late October. BTC follows this trade, and the weekly 50 is still overhead.

Bottom is not in.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Our message to Nvidia's board:

Do not fire Jensen Huang.

There is no clear replacement for Jensen Huang. We are confident that his departure would ultimately be a net negative for Nvidia, its shareholders, and the AI Revolution.

First, take a look at the data. History also suggests that removing a successful CEO will come with a significant cost.

A study of 187 forced CEO departures from S&P 1500 companies found that removing outperforming CEOs resulted in negative long-term stock returns. This case would be no different, in our view.

Jensen Huang is the definition of an outperforming CEO. Nvidia's board must not make a decision in the heat of the moment.

The board should take the time to conduct a thorough investigation and consult with shareholders, with a strong emphasis on the latter.

Quite literally, Nvidia's board should convene a special shareholder meeting and hold an advisory vote on this decision. This is the most consequential CEO controversy in world history. Shareholders deserve a say.

In addition, Nvidia's stock, $NVDA, is now down -35% in 26 trading days, nearly half of which is a result of the recent scandal.

We believe Jensen Huang's potential removal as CEO is now ~80% priced in.

Why take an action with massive downside potential when the market has already priced in much of that risk?

The downside of retaining Huang may be limited, while the potential upside is tremendous.

Lastly, history shows that retaining Jensen Huang could still lead to a favorable outcome. In 2019, Amazon retained Jeff Bezos as CEO after his extramarital affair became public, and the company's stock subsequently surged +108% by 2021.

Personal misconduct should not be ignored, but it must also be distinguished from corporate wrongdoing and weighed against the consequences of removing an executive who is instrumental to the company's success.

We believe Jensen Huang is an irreplaceable part of Nvidia and the AI Revolution more broadly.

Once the dust settles, firing Jensen Huang would prove to be a costly mistake.

It is time to pause and consult your shareholders.

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

Muslim rape gangs that brutalized 12 year old girls got less time than @rustyrockets.

That's not a justice system. That's a preference.

This is how two-tier law works, and everybody can see it.

This is why you don't mass import Muslims that get into positions of power in the government and use it against the native populations.

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

@BitcoinArchive Barely holding the 200-day is not "the upper hand."

One daily close under ~$73,200 and that bounce is done.

Bulls are one close away from losing this level.

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

@HouseDemocrats Obamacare destroyed Healthcare and Americans have suffered ever since.

You leftist twats are useless, self absorbed, power hungry, corrupt idiots.

F off.

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

76k is the magnet, not the launchpad.

That's the weekly 50, near $75,200.
Price is still under it, and MSCI just put Strategy on the deletion list.

DXY just hit 103 and will push to 104 - 106 (bearish for BTC)

Bonds back above 5%.

Iran refusing to give in (escalation soon)

We make a lower low first.

Bottom is far from in!

See my TA here:

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

Zooming out is precisely why I'm bearish.

Not only are we in a falling wedge (red lines), but that wedge is also part of an expanding triangle (blue lines). Both share a bottom target of around 52k (great confluence since both are HTF).

Then if you zoom out even further, we are in an even larger expanding triangle (yellow lines) that has an even lower target for next major support of around 28k.

Btw we also just had a textbook expanded flat within the falling wedge which by definition means minimum target is below where wave B began, so sub 58k minimum (image with wave counts).

ALSO, we had a textbook Wyckoff distribution Type 2 formation that we are currently in!

To recap:
1) Falling wedge (52k next major support)
2) Expanding triangle within the falling wedge (52k next major support)
3) Textbook expanded flat within both the falling wedge and expanding triangle (sub 58k target by definition)
4) Wyckoff distribution type 2 (textbook downside still to follow)
5) Larger expanding triangle (28k next major support)

Combine all 5 and we have insane levels of confluence proving bottom was never in and we will be making LL's in the coming weeks!

Not saying we can't get small pop up from here up to 79k (max) on LTF (due to divergences and RSI etc.) but even if (and it's a big if) we got there, it would only be for adding to shorts.

If you look at my charts, you will see we will be making Lower Lows and we are still in a bear market.

I'm in a short from 87k and my TP1 is 54k. I'm not waiting for 52k due to front runners and not holding my breath for 28k (the yellow expanding triangle bottom). But I can guarantee we will see 38k to 54k range.

Bottom was never in.

See attached chart photos for more detail.

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

Dips also transfer coins to people who think $74k is cheap.

MSCI just booted Strategy off the index, and ETFs leaked another $30 million today.

This is not strong hands. This is the crowd buying the first bounce.

@adam3us is the biggest bulltard of them all! BTC isnt even bitcoin!

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

@MarioNawfal Voter ID. Sanctuary bans. Border rules in writing.

They have until January 3. After that, the people who just took Congress bury the list.

Get it done or don't bother running on it again.

@LeaderJohnThune is a disgrace. Last chance for him to attempt any redemption.

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

Id love to see Rubio 2028.

But its bittersweet. Not sure how he could campaign for that while in his current position.

So if true, id expect him to leave this administration by the end of this 2027 tops.

@SecRubio > @JDVance in any case. Vance is cool but he comes off as too soft.

[Jack @jackunheard]

JUST IN: Republicans on Capitol Hill are trying to draft Marco Rubio for a 2028 presidential run, according to Politico.

This would be huge.

Lawmakers are already floating his name as a potential candidate three years out.

Who would be his running mate?

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

@saylor Lmao.

Bye Felicia.

[Smart Money Crypto @Smart_Money]

BREAKING 🚨 MSCI SCHMEISST SAYLORS STRATEGY AUS DEM MSCI WORLD - IN 18 TAGEN MÜSSEN DIE FONDS VERKAUFEN

Mittwochabend, 23 Uhr deutscher Zeit, war es amtlich.

MSCI streicht Strategy, die Firma von Michael Saylor, aus dem MSCI USA und damit aus MSCI World und ACWI. Metaplanet fliegt aus dem japanischen Small-Cap-Index, der britische Uran-Halter Yellow Cake gleich mit. Wirksam zum Börsenschluss am Montag, 30. November.

Am 2. Januar habe ich Strategy in meinem Glaskugel-Special das systemische Risiko Nummer eins für 2026 genannt, mit genau diesem Rauswurf als Auslöser. Zwei Wochen später hatte MSCI vertagt und ich hatte das Thema abgehakt. Zu früh.

Ein Teil meiner Rechnung von damals hält trotzdem nicht. Dazu gleich.

WAS DAS BEDEUTET

Fonds auf MSCI-Indizes halten laut Strategy rund 13 Millionen Aktien, 3,1 Prozent der Firma. Beim Schlusskurs von 122,35 Dollar am Mittwoch sind das knapp 1,6 Milliarden. Etwas mehr als ein halber normaler Handelstag in $MSTR.

Wer in Deutschland einen MSCI World bespart, hat ab Dezember kein Stück Saylor mehr im Depot.

WO ES WIRKLICH WEH TUT

Strategy bezahlt seine Bitcoin mit neuen Aktien. Die Indexfonds waren die Käufer, die jede neue Aktie automatisch mitgenommen haben. Dieser Käufer ist ab Dezember weg.

Wie dünn die Luft schon ist, zeigt die letzte Woche. Strategy hat 2,05 Millionen neue Aktien verkauft, netto 284 Millionen Dollar. 188 Millionen davon gingen in den Rückkauf der eigenen Vorzugsaktie STRC. In Bitcoin flossen 82 Millionen, das waren 1.036 Stück.

Zwei Drittel des frischen Geldes für eigenes Papier, nicht mal ein Drittel für Bitcoin.

Dazu der Einstand. Die 850.364 Bitcoin der Firma haben im Schnitt 75.456 Dollar gekostet. Heute steht Bitcoin bei 74.027. Der größte Firmen-Bestand der Welt liegt 1,2 Milliarden im Minus.

WAS JETZT PASSIERT

→ Bis 30. November: Bei Index-Streichungen positionieren sich Händler meist vorher, die Fonds räumen erst in der Schlussauktion ab. Der Druck kommt eher in den nächsten zwei Wochen als am Stichtag.
→ Montag, 30. November, 22 Uhr deutscher Zeit: Schlussauktion in New York, die 13 Millionen Aktien wechseln den Besitzer.
→ Ab Montag, 7. Dezember: Strategys Wochenmeldungen. Mehr Bitcoin oder mehr Rückkauf?
→ Mitte Dezember: Nasdaq ordnet den Nasdaq-100 neu, Strategy steht drin. Für den Fall, dass weitere Indexanbieter nachziehen, hat JPMorgan bis zu 8,8 Milliarden gerechnet.
→ Februar: die nächste MSCI-Überprüfung. Knapp zwei Dutzend weitere Krypto- und Beteiligungsfirmen stehen auf der Beobachtungsliste.

WAS CT SAGT

Laut, aber erstaunlich entspannt. Auf jeden negativen Beitrag zu Strategy kommen gerade zweieinhalb positive.

@coinbureau nannte die Entscheidung vorab das bärischste Signal für Bitcoin. @AshCrypto schrieb nach der Meldung: schlecht für Bitcoin.

Am lautesten ist spanisches CT. @SantinoCripto, spanischsprachiges Krypto-Konto, warnte vor einem historischen Crash und "2.8 BILLONES" Dollar Zwangsverkauf.

@CryptoKaleo, Trader, hält dagegen: Was vorhersehbar ist, ist eingepreist, Bitcoin blute seit dem 15. Oktober. @oragnes, chinesischsprachiger Bitcoin-Trader, rechnet vor, dass der Indexverkauf Strategy keinen Cent aus der Kasse nimmt.

Am härtesten ist @SemperVigilant1, Strategy-Kritiker. Vor zwei Jahren stand Bitcoin bei 80.000, die Aktie bei 300 Dollar. Seitdem Bitcoin minus 8,75 Prozent, die Aktie minus 60. Schuld seien die ständigen Aktienverkäufe.

Und @saylor? Vier Stunden vor der Entscheidung schrieb er, Strategy bringe seine Aktien on-chain, hin zu Kapitalmärkten, die nie schließen. Zur Entscheidung selbst bis jetzt kein Wort.

WAS ICH DARAUS MACHE

CT starrt auf den 30. November. Mich interessiert der Dezember mehr.

Die Fonds verkaufen ein einziges Mal. Schwerer wiegt für mich, dass danach jede neue Aktie umso stärker verwässert, je tiefer der Kurs steht, und dass sie ab Dezember keiner mehr automatisch abnimmt.

Fließt in den Montagsmeldungen weiter mehr Geld in eigenes Papier als in Bitcoin, hat Bitcoin seinen größten Käufer der letzten zwei Jahre verloren. Ganz ohne Eilmeldung.

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

@KookCapitalLLC No games.

It was always in the charts.

This TA was easily seen and predictable...

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

Zooming out is precisely why I'm bearish.

Not only are we in a falling wedge (red lines), but that wedge is also part of an expanding triangle (blue lines). Both share a bottom target of around 52k (great confluence since both are HTF).

Then if you zoom out even further, we are in an even larger expanding triangle (yellow lines) that has an even lower target for next major support of around 28k.

Btw we also just had a textbook expanded flat within the falling wedge which by definition means minimum target is below where wave B began, so sub 58k minimum (image with wave counts).

ALSO, we had a textbook Wyckoff distribution Type 2 formation that we are currently in!

To recap:
1) Falling wedge (52k next major support)
2) Expanding triangle within the falling wedge (52k next major support)
3) Textbook expanded flat within both the falling wedge and expanding triangle (sub 58k target by definition)
4) Wyckoff distribution type 2 (textbook downside still to follow)
5) Larger expanding triangle (28k next major support)

Combine all 5 and we have insane levels of confluence proving bottom was never in and we will be making LL's in the coming weeks!

Not saying we can't get small pop up from here up to 79k (max) on LTF (due to divergences and RSI etc.) but even if (and it's a big if) we got there, it would only be for adding to shorts.

If you look at my charts, you will see we will be making Lower Lows and we are still in a bear market.

I'm in a short from 87k and my TP1 is 54k. I'm not waiting for 52k due to front runners and not holding my breath for 28k (the yellow expanding triangle bottom). But I can guarantee we will see 38k to 54k range.

Bottom was never in.

See attached chart photos for more detail.

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

@Ilhan Is this lying cockroach talking again?

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

DXY looks like its going for it...

103.

Bearish for BTC.

Im expecting 104 to 106 for DXY in coming days / weeks.

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

@TheDemocrats will be the end of America as we know it.

Its over unless we get rid of this mind virus.

[Z @insatiablevine]

This absolute fucktard wants to re-import deported illegals.

We need a revolution. There is no way forward with either party.

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

This guy loves to make the most convoluted excuses and ramble sessions for what was simple TA that was always in the charts.

It amazes me this guy is even considered a trader.

KOL bulltards are not traders, regardless of how many years they been losing their followers money.

The bottom was never in!

Look at the charts!

[Satoshi Sovereign @BSVonly]

Zooming out is precisely why I'm bearish.

Not only are we in a falling wedge (red lines), but that wedge is also part of an expanding triangle (blue lines). Both share a bottom target of around 52k (great confluence since both are HTF).

Then if you zoom out even further, we are in an even larger expanding triangle (yellow lines) that has an even lower target for next major support of around 28k.

Btw we also just had a textbook expanded flat within the falling wedge which by definition means minimum target is below where wave B began, so sub 58k minimum (image with wave counts).

ALSO, we had a textbook Wyckoff distribution Type 2 formation that we are currently in!

To recap:
1) Falling wedge (52k next major support)
2) Expanding triangle within the falling wedge (52k next major support)
3) Textbook expanded flat within both the falling wedge and expanding triangle (sub 58k target by definition)
4) Wyckoff distribution type 2 (textbook downside still to follow)
5) Larger expanding triangle (28k next major support)

Combine all 5 and we have insane levels of confluence proving bottom was never in and we will be making LL's in the coming weeks!

Not saying we can't get small pop up from here up to 79k (max) on LTF (due to divergences and RSI etc.) but even if (and it's a big if) we got there, it would only be for adding to shorts.

If you look at my charts, you will see we will be making Lower Lows and we are still in a bear market.

I'm in a short from 87k and my TP1 is 54k. I'm not waiting for 52k due to front runners and not holding my breath for 28k (the yellow expanding triangle bottom). But I can guarantee we will see 38k to 54k range.

Bottom was never in.

See attached chart photos for more detail.