Brenden Sommerhalder

Information integrator. President, MQO Research.

[Brenden Sommerhalder @BSommerhalder]

@thinkingshivers "share with" likely elicited that. The models likely tend toward humour when asked to prepare something to share (ie, to make something "shareable".. as like a social media post)

[Brenden Sommerhalder @BSommerhalder]

@cadwaveanalysis @RealAlbanianPat @CDNprojections You all are nerds of the highest order.

Respect. 🤜🤛

[Brenden Sommerhalder @BSommerhalder]

Another showing that makes me incredibly proud. From our dedicated telephone interviewers through to our data analytics and QA teams -- keep up the great work. It's important that we continue to prove that while polling isn't easy, it can be done well.

[Polling Canada @CanadianPolling]

Overall polling miss in Newfoundland and Labrador!

MQO performed the best with the lowest average error and had both PCs and Liberals within their margin of error, while Cardinal had the PCs in theirs and are just shy of the Liberals

MQO got the closest to the Liberal vote share

Cardinal got the closest to the PC and NDP vote shares

[Brenden Sommerhalder @BSommerhalder]

@RobertDwyer86 @RealAlbanianPat @MQOResearch We released it as soon as voting stations closed tonight. https://t.co/iDwQ6ZjxGM

[Brenden Sommerhalder @BSommerhalder]

@RealAlbanianPat Not LIB +10-20, anyway.

[Brenden Sommerhalder @BSommerhalder]

👀 #nlpoli

[Brenden Sommerhalder @BSommerhalder]

@RealAlbanianPat It was great to meet you -- and it will surprise none of your followers to know that you asked one the best questions asked by any attendee at the conference. 🤝

[MQO Research @MQOResearch]

Listen to MQO's @BSommerhalder discuss electoral reform and our proportional representation simulation with @TVeinotteShow (@ 18:00 mark): https://t.co/3DeM93pe0X #elxn45 #ElectoralReform #Canada #ProportionalRepresentation

[Brenden Sommerhalder @BSommerhalder]

What are your thoughts about Canada's electoral system?

[MQO Research @MQOResearch]

"No more blue wall, red wall: How electoral reform could stop regional election sweeps"

We were happy to help make Proportional Representation (PR) more concrete by simulating #elxn45 results as PR for @CanadianPress

https://t.co/odJako0eGn

[Brenden Sommerhalder @BSommerhalder]

Such a pleasure to collab with some of the brightest & most strategic minds from right across the country.

I really enjoyed this convo with our @GPAinsights friends; just the tip of the iceberg of all the expertise the team offered as this historic(ally weird) #elxn45 unfolded.

[Global Public Affairs @GPAinsights]

Following the 2025 federal election, members of our coast-to-coast team gathered with @BSommerhalder, CEO of  MQO Research, to dig deep into the interesting details and underlying data associated with the election results.

▶️ Watch here: https://t.co/DfPlc86tLt

🎧 Or listen on Spotify: https://t.co/M2fwEzqTB9
🎧 Or on Apple Podcasts: https://t.co/Zng2LcZEIl

[Brenden Sommerhalder @BSommerhalder]

@Vitormarciano @CanadianPolling We (@MQOResearch) have receipts -- our data dashboard now has "Projections and Results" tab (as of first thing this morning, will update upon finals end of day): https://t.co/mnf0yXwzuV

Note: our projected result is represented by the "Voted" + "Not Voted, 80%+ Likely" filters

[Brenden Sommerhalder @BSommerhalder]

Overall, another well-polled federal election by the Canadian market research industry.

[MQO Research @MQOResearch]

An eventful #elxn45 night! This was a story of CPC overperforming our projection and NDP underperforming it (+3.5 / -2.8) -- the difference that made the difference. The avg. error between our projection and the result: ~1.8pts (MoE was 2.1).

[Brenden Sommerhalder @BSommerhalder]

One of my favourite features on our #elxn45 polling data dashboard is ability to filter by voting status (already voted, most/least likely to vote). We found that among the 7.4 million Canadians who voted early, 51% went for the Liberal Party. Wow! https://t.co/mnf0yXwzuV

[Brenden Sommerhalder @BSommerhalder]

@338Canada We've also been getting (unsuccessful) attacks to our website over the past couple of weeks. Someone out there really. hates. numbers.

[Brenden Sommerhalder @BSommerhalder]

Chips are down folks -- over to you, voters!

[MQO Research @MQOResearch]

Our final #elxn45 vote share projection*:

🔴LPC: 44% | 🔵CPC: 38% | 🟠NDP: 9% | ⚜️BQ: 5% | 🟢GPC: 2%

*Among those who already voted or self-rated as 80%+ likely to vote on election day.

Full results & interactive data dashboard: https://t.co/SVfCoHfKLN (for @GPAinsights)

[Brenden Sommerhalder @BSommerhalder]

For all my data nerds out there👇https://t.co/mnf0yXwzuV

[MQO Research @MQOResearch]

#elxn45 is almost here and we look forward to publishing our final poll results for @GPAinsights weekend. In the meantime, we invite you to play with the data we collected each week on our Interactive Election Data Dashboard: https://t.co/VSGJQ90duF

[MQO Research @MQOResearch]

Our latest (post-debate) result for @GPAinsights #Elxn45 polling showing continued stability:
LPC holding steady, CPC/BQ slight gains, NDP ticks down: https://t.co/dYUC7YukeU

[Brenden Sommerhalder @BSommerhalder]

Which leader performed best at the debates? Depends who you ask -- sort of.

🔵CPC voters stuck behind Poilievre (78% choosing him).
🔴LPC voters were less with Carney (66%), with 19% unable to choose someone.
🟠NDP voters had one eye on Singh (54%) and the other on Carney (24%).

[Brenden Sommerhalder @BSommerhalder]

Our latest poll results for #Elxn45.

Stability in nat'l support is hiding interesting churn under the hood this time (swing toward CPC in BC; deepening red in QC..)

As always, don’t bet your life’s savings on any one poll. But -- Let the games begin?

https://t.co/M8vKVEP9TK

[Brenden Sommerhalder @BSommerhalder]

It's been a remarkably stable race so far to the advantage of the Liberal Party, according to our first three waves of nationwide #elxn41 polling.

[MQO Research @MQOResearch]

Our latest nationwide federal election polling for @GPAinsights finds the Liberal Party holding a 10-point lead among decided and leaning voters: https://t.co/dYUC7YukeU #cdnpoli #polling