SoCal Surfer 🛡️

7x Marathon runner, Investor, Calculated Risk Taker $BTC | LA by way of #Detroit 🏴‍☠️ Moonshots are my own which I share openly - NFA*

[SoCal Surfer 🛡️ @BTCSocalSurfer]

@shaguncrypto Don't over think it. If it dips load back up to $50K until it starts moving. You'll be fine. If you actually managed to hold that long you'll be well off. Odds are you'll sell at $250k or earlier when it starts to move to the upside again.

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

JUST IN: The amount of Bitcoin held in long-term holder addresses has reached a NEW ALL-TIME HIGH 🚀

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 President Donald Trump reports owning over $50 million in Bitcoin, held in cold storage.

[Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com @fundstrat]

Window 🪟 dressing ends today

[SoCal Surfer 🛡️ @BTCSocalSurfer]

@mikealfred I had to three angle myself today and say... don't wait until the end of Q4 to get bullish, get bullish today. Bought $MSTR down here.

[SoCal Surfer 🛡️ @BTCSocalSurfer]

Today I bought a massive amount of $MSTR. That is all.

[The Wolf Of All Streets @scottmelker]

The overwhelming consensus today is that Bitcoin is headed much lower.

Maybe it is. The trend is still down on the higher time frames, macro uncertainty remains elevated, and there are legitimate reasons to be cautious.

But markets have a funny habit of making the majority feel smartest right before they make them the most uncomfortable.

So let's suspend our biases for a moment and ask a different question.

If Bitcoin were actually in the process of putting in a major bottom, what evidence would we expect to see?

A month ago, I laid out the historical case. At the time, I argued that Bitcoin was beginning to enter the same conditions that had accompanied every previous major cycle low. It wasn't a prediction. It was simply an observation that several independent indicators were beginning to align.

Since then, that case has become stronger.

The weekly bullish RSI divergencewith oversold conditions I discussed has now been confirmed. The daily chart is showing the same thing. Momentum is improving even as price remains near its lows, exactly the type of behavior technicians look for when trends begin exhausting themselves.

Bitcoin also continues to find support around its 50-month moving average, a level that has historically marked major long-term buying opportunities. It is also trading around the 200 Weekly MA, a level that has marked every bottom.

On-chain metrics continue to show underwater supply at levels typically associated with broad capitulation, suggesting a significant amount of forced selling has already taken place.

At the same time, whale accumulation has exploded. Large holders are accumulating Bitcoin at the fastest pace ever recorded. These were the same wallets that sold the top. That's worth paying attention to. Historically, the biggest players don't wait for perfect headlines or obvious trend reversals. They accumulate while uncertainty is highest and conviction is lowest.

Then there's sentiment.

Fear and greed is in the gutter.

Also, every major Bitcoin bottom eventually becomes associated with a narrative that feels impossible to overcome while you're living through it. In previous cycles it was Mt. Gox, China's mining ban, COVID, Luna, Celsius, and FTX. At the time, each felt like an existential threat. Looking back, they were signs of peak fear and capitulation.

Today that narrative has become Strategy.

The conversation has shifted away from Bitcoin itself and toward whether Strategy can continue financing its accumulation. The prevailing belief is that dilution is inevitable, capital markets are closing, and Bitcoin can't sustainably recover until Strategy fails first.

But nearly every one of those arguments depends on the same assumption: Bitcoin continues falling.

If Bitcoin stabilizes, trades sideways, or begins recovering over the coming months, much of the bearish case against Strategy begins to unwind naturally. Financing improves. Market confidence returns. Access to capital opens back up. The feedback loop everyone is worried about today begins working in the opposite direction.

In other words, perhaps the market has cause and effect backwards. Strategy doesn't necessarily need to survive in order for Bitcoin to recover. If Bitcoin is already entering a bottoming process, many of the concerns surrounding Strategy may simply resolve themselves.

This brings me to what I think is the most important point.

Major bottoms don't form when everyone suddenly becomes bullish. They form when the market quietly stops going down despite nearly everyone expecting it to.

That's exactly what bullish momentum divergences represent. Price continues testing lows, sentiment remains terrible, headlines stay negative - but underneath the surface, selling pressure begins fading. Momentum improves before price does. Strong hands quietly absorb coins from weak hands. By the time the news turns positive, much of the move has already happened.

None of this guarantees we've seen the final low. Markets don't provide certainty, and major bottoms are rarely clean. They tend to frustrate both bulls and bears before a new trend emerges.

But when I step back and look objectively at the evidence, I see a market where weekly and daily bullish divergences have now been confirmed, long-term support continues to hold, whale accumulation has reached unprecedented levels, on-chain capitulation resembles previous cycle lows, and sentiment has become overwhelmingly one-sided.

Could Bitcoin still make another lower low? Absolutely.

Could this process take longer than anyone expects? Of course.

But if you're intellectually honest enough to consider both sides, I think the bullish case today is far stronger than most people are willing to admit. And historically, that's often what major turning points have looked like.

[SoCal Surfer 🛡️ @BTCSocalSurfer]

@AndrewBTC 🤙Happy 250th

[SoCal Surfer 🛡️ @BTCSocalSurfer]

@ScottiePippen @Gemini checks a few of these boxes. They are building under the radar within prediction markets.

[SoCal Surfer 🛡️ @BTCSocalSurfer]

@AndrewBTC See you on the strand 🤙

[SoCal Surfer 🛡️ @BTCSocalSurfer]

@scottmelker I prefer to buy treasury companies below MNAV. Waiting on $ASST to get a deep discount before we go back up.

[SportsCenter @SportsCenter]

Edward Norton talking to himself at the USA-Türkiye game 😅

[SoCal Surfer 🛡️ @BTCSocalSurfer]

@stats_feed Genius

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@craigweiss Posting on LinkedIn is cringe

[SoCal Surfer 🛡️ @BTCSocalSurfer]

@jongiuffre @relientkenny lol same

[SoCal Surfer 🛡️ @BTCSocalSurfer]

@relientkenny That was my take as well; a 90 mi. PSA ... And then they are also selling the tech product.

[SoCal Surfer 🛡️ @BTCSocalSurfer]

@AmazonMGMStudio

[The Wolf Of All Streets @scottmelker]

The World Cup proves how amazing the world could be… without politics.

[SoCal Surfer 🛡️ @BTCSocalSurfer]

@CoinDesk Should tax his calorie intake

[SoCal Surfer 🛡️ @BTCSocalSurfer]

@dotkrueger That's deep

[SoCal Surfer 🛡️ @BTCSocalSurfer]

@dotkrueger @TFTC21 @jackmallers Nepo