Marsit Badis

[Marsit Badis @BadisMarsit]

@DarioCpx Wednesday, we will have May inflation figures, EIA stocks change, and Oracle earnings at the end of the day. A long wednesday !!

[Marsit Badis @BadisMarsit]

@rickjeff78 Maybe they will start to care when the SPR reaches its historical minimum. We will be close this week. But we will reach it next week.

[Marsit Badis @BadisMarsit]

@rickjeff78 We still need a couple of tweets, and then oil would turn negative

[Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport]

Unpopular opinion: this will be the first June in history where stocks top for the year.

[Marsit Badis @BadisMarsit]

And of course BoJ intervention may have a result only for a short moment !
I guess even less than last time, as the market is digesting it. And I feel like some of the Japanese entities are dumping Yen assets at the moment of the intervention, weaking the yen even more.
Beware !

[Marsit Badis @BadisMarsit]

How about good news are bad news ?
The employment figures for May were strong, and those of March & April were reviewed up
And we have yields going up (a bit dangerous for 2Y btw as the FED rate tends to follow) and we have USDJPY back to the level of STRONG intervention AGAIN !

[Marsit Badis @BadisMarsit]

@charliebilello You could argue for 2003. But the US was prepared for it. And it caused inflation in the long-run. The 2008 is not captured in your table, as it is between 5y and 10y.

[Marsit Badis @BadisMarsit]

@charliebilello Yes, but many of these are one-off operations, not wars. And in the 2 main wars (1973 and 2022) where there are oil stakes, the market shifted on 1-year basis to the downside.

[Marsit Badis @BadisMarsit]

@DarioCpx At the end, I feel like they want to believe what they are hearing, because they know how bad the economy would be. Just a denial. Or maybe complaceny, but I don't think, because it wouldn't have lasted that much. In any case, it will change when the shortages hit.

[Marsit Badis @BadisMarsit]

No easy decision for Japan. It can either save itself and crush the global economy or vice-versa.

[Marsit Badis @BadisMarsit]

After several direct and indirect (oil manipulation) interventions, JPY went from 160 back to ... 160. There will be another intervention for sure
But its impact is weaker.
Nothing would work. At this debt level and the upcoming inflation (we haven't seen the whole oil story yet)

[Marsit Badis @BadisMarsit]

Oil prices and shortages will make things worse. Japan have already massively used its oil reserves.

[Marsit Badis @BadisMarsit]

A company will never priorize an equity offering to debt (Alphabet is used to)
1. AI investment costs are increasing with no immediate ROI
2. FCF is getting unconfortably lower.
It smells the dot com, the electricity, the railroad bubble
When liquidity stops, many will struggle

[Financial Times @FT]

Alphabet to sell up to $80bn in shares to fund its AI build-out https://t.co/1udJxsbS0J

[Marsit Badis @BadisMarsit]

Monthly US Distillate (Diesel) stocks are at a particularly low level. The tank bottoms are not far (~10-15 mb to the current level). There is already a stress, which could be exacerbated by the Driving Season and the World Cup organization (higher demand).

[Marsit Badis @BadisMarsit]

@anasalhajji Distillate stocks are particularly at a low level (100.8 mb), which should be adding stress especially during the driving season.

[Marsit Badis @BadisMarsit]

@elarby05 @Profmzweiri بالضبط.

[Marsit Badis @BadisMarsit]

Of course, we will tell you that Micron price is not expensive (from a forward PE multiple terms). But it has always been the same story. In 1994 and 2000, they figured out that supply was higher than demand, and prices deflated. (4/4)

[Marsit Badis @BadisMarsit]

What goes vertical... comes vertical. Semiconductors are extremely overstreched, and at some levels, higher than their peak before the dot-com bubble burst. Of course, this madness could go on, but not for long. And this time is no different. Let's focus on Micron.(1/4)

[Marsit Badis @BadisMarsit]

On a daily perspective, gaps are everywhere. And they will be revisited. (3/4)