BagpiperBand

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[Trading With Logic @Tradewith_kd]

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[Vatsala Singh @_vatsalasingh]

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[Brutal Game @brutal_truth0]

18 Laws of Human Nature:

[BagpiperBand @BagpiperBand]

@Tradewith_kd Nice

[Trading With Logic @Tradewith_kd]

Why Gold is falling during war and when the stock market is down ?

Bookmark the detailed analysis🔖

Lately I am seeing 15 to 20 posts every day in this sub asking the same thing.

- War is going on
- Stock market is going down. (so gold should go up)
- Oil is above 100

Then why is gold falling?

Most people think war means fear and fear means gold goes up. Also, since the Stock Market is down, Gold should act as hedge and go up.

This works sometimes but not always

Gold does not move on news it moves on macro factors, right now those factors are against our beloved gold.

Reason1: Main reason is yields.

US 10 year yield is around 4.4% right now. So compare this,

Gold gives zero return (no interest)
US bonds are giving around 4.25% almost risk free, so money will obviously move to bonds. yes, we all know USD sucks, they have trillions of debt, zero trust but still people put their money there.

Why hold gold when you can earn fixed return.

This is called opportunity cost. When yields go high gold automatically becomes less attractive.

This is the biggest reason gold is falling.

Reason2: Strong dollar

Gold is priced in dollars. When dollar becomes strong gold becomes expensive for other countries, so the demand reduces. Also during uncertainty money flows into dollar So strong dollar puts pressure on gold.

Reason3: War is actually hurting gold indirectly.

This is where most people get confused

War pushed oil prices up.
Oil going up increases inflation fear. (LPG, Petrol, Diesel, Etc that uses Crude Oil)
Inflation fear makes Fed stay strict, No rate cuts means yields stay high.

And we already know high yields are bad for gold. So war is not helping gold right now it is actually making it worse.

Reason4: Leverage got wiped out.

A lot of people were not holding normal gold they were in leveraged ETFs, 2x and 3x products.

These products automatically sell when price falls. So price falls a little then forced selling starts, that selling pushes price further down, then more forced selling happens, this creates a chain reaction. People did not change their view on gold they were forced to exit.

Reason:5 Possible sovereign selling

Sometimes countries like Gulf sell gold when they need cash. Since oil is not passing the Strait of Hormuz, they need cash to survive and they start selling gold.

Right now with oil supply issues and uncertainty some selling can come from that side as well.

Now the important part most people are missing

There are two markets:

1. Paper gold which is ETFs and futures this is what is falling
2. Physical gold where actual buying happens this is still strong. (ex; this reddit group)

Central banks are still buying. (Tons of Gold)
Demand from Asia is still there. (Jewelry Lovers)

So what is happening is simple,

Weak hands are selling and strong hands are accumulating.

This is important to understand.

Has this happened before? Yes!

Whenever yields go high and dollar becomes strong gold usually struggles in the short term. Even during uncertain times if rates stay high gold does not move up immediately

It usually moves later when yields fall and rate cuts begin

So what we are seeing now is not unusual, it happened same during Gulf War, Russia-ukraine war.

What will likely happen next?

Gold usually moves in phases

First yields go up and gold falls.
Then market stabilizes and moves sideways.
Then when rates fall gold rallies strongly.

Right now we are between first and second phase.

Very Important: Trying to catch exact bottom usually does not work, buy in parts

[BagpiperBand @BagpiperBand]

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[BagpiperBand @BagpiperBand]

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[RoboRocks @malagojr]

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[Vatsala Singh @_vatsalasingh]

52 वेबसाइटें जो ज़्यादातर कॉलेज डिग्रि��ों से ज़्यादा कीमती हैं:

1. Coursera. org – यूनिवर्सिटी के कोर्स, जिन्हें आप पूरी तरह से मुफ़्त में देख सकते हैं
2. Brilliant. org – मै�� और साइंस सीखने का इंटरैक्टिव तरीका
3. Wolfram Alpha – किसी भी मैथ या फ़ैक्ट से जुड़े सवाल का जवाब देता है
4. GitHub. com – असल दुनिया के प्रोजेक्ट्स से कोडिंग सीखें
5. Investopedia. com – फ़ाइनेंस और इन्वेस्टिंग को आसान भाषा में समझाता है
6. Archive. org – लाखों मुफ़्त किताबें और पुरानी वेबसाइटें देखें
7. Project Gutenberg – 70,000 मुफ़्त क्लासिक किताबें
8. Duolingo. com – कोई भी भाषा मुफ़्त में सीखें
9. Notion. so – अपनी पूरी ज़िंदगी और पढ़ाई को व्यवस्थित करें
10. Our World in Data – दुनिया के हर आँकड़े को विज़ुअलाइज़ करके दिखाता है
11. Statista. com – हर चीज़ पर डेटा और आँकड़े
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14. NASA. gov – स्पेस साइंस और रिसर्च मुफ़्त में
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21. Readwise. io – आपने जो कुछ भी पढ��ा है, वह सब याद रखें
22. Google Scholar – असली एकेडमिक पेपर्स खोजें
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24. ChatGPT – AI ट्यूटर जो दिन के 24 घंटे उपलब्ध है
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26. Replit. com – अपने ब्राउज़र से कुछ भी कोड करें
27. Huberman Lab Podcast – साइंस पर आधारित हेल्थ एजुकेशन
28. Mindmeister. com – बेहतर सोच के लिए माइंड मैपिंग
29. NerdWallet. com – पर्सनल फ़ाइनेंस को आसान बनाता है
30. Quizlet. com – फ़्लैशकार्ड्स की मदद से ज़्यादा स्मार्ट तरीके से पढ़ाई करें
31. Gapminder. org – दुनिया की असली हालत देखें
32. PhET Simulations – ऑनलाइन इंटरैक्टिव साइंस एक्सपेरिमेंट
33. Numbeo. com – धरती के हर शहर के लिए रहने-सहने के खर्च का डेटा
34. 23andMe. com – अपनी खुद की जेनेटिक्स को समझें
35. Zapier. com – बिना कोडिंग के अप��े काम को ऑटोमेट करें
36. Lesswrong. com – गहरी तार्किक सोच और फ़ैसले लेना
37. Documentaryheaven. com – हज़ारों मुफ़्त डॉक्यूमेंट्री
38. Trading Economics – हर देश के लिए आर्थिक डेटा
39. Perplexity. ai – AI से चलने वाला रिसर्च टूल
40. Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy – हर दार्��निक विचार को समझाया गया है
41. Librivox. org – क्लासिक साहित्य की मुफ़्त ऑडियोबुक
42. Zooniverse. org – असली वैज्ञानिक रिसर्च में हिस्सा लें
43. Futurelearn. com – टॉप यूनिवर्सिटी से मुफ़्त छोटे कोर्स
44. Typing. com – सही तरीके से और तेज़ी से टाइप करना सीखें
45. Drawabox. com – बिल्कुल शुरू से चित्र बनाना सीखें
46. Grammarly. com – हर स्थिति में बेहतर लिखें
47. Khanacademy. org – हर किसी के लिए मुफ़्त, विश्व-स्तरीय शिक्षा
48. Desmos. com – सबसे शक्तिशाली मुफ़्त ग्राफ़िंग कैल���ुलेटर
49. Stellarium. org – अपनी स्क्रीन से रात के आसमान को देखें
50. Psychologytoday. com – मानसिक स्वास्थ्य और मनोविज्ञान को समझाया गया है
51. Worldometers. info – हर चीज़ पर रियल-टाइम वैश्विक आँकड़े
52. Notion. so/ templates – अपनी पूरी ज़िंदगी को व्यवस्थित करने के लिए मुफ़्त टेम्प्लेट...see more

[Indu Tripathi @InduTripat82427]

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