Steven Balsam

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

@rzoty4 @Gubben89 Totally different management and strategy now.

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

$KEL.TO Strong insider purchase by CEO and founder David Wilson - 100,000 shares at $9.06 for $906,000. David now holds over 29,000,000 shares.

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

@kingdomcapadv HOH.V (on next year's FCF)

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

@kingdomcapadv ECTM (but only 5 years of FCF left)

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

@amit32883 Hi Amit, what was your impression of John (and any other company people you spoke with)?

I spoke with Chuck Knight and Jeff Shock in November 2024 and they seemed solid.

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

@hawkerlogan There is a good way to avoid this issue. Try to DM me or ask a buddy who has that access.

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

$NRP Despite the share price decline, NRP posted another strong quarter. Without any benefit from Soda Ash, they still brought in $45M of FCF for the quarter and $168M for the year.

I think there was an expectation that NRP would go into full capital return mode as early as the end of Q1 (versus management's projection of August). That isn't going to happen because NRP is making a $39M contribution relating to its 49% ownership in Sisecam Wyoming this quarter.

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

@hawkerlogan Hi Rooster, the honest answer is I don't know. Feel free to reply or DM me to let me know how many shares you own/are thinking of buying as there may be an efficient way to do that.

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

$NRP is not the operator or majority owner of the mine so the decision to idle the mine wouldn't be theirs.
But, remember, this isn't a directly operated or funded operation. NRP is a minority (49%) owner of Sisecam Wyoming LLC (Sisecam). Negative FCF at Sisecam does not come out of NRP's pocket.
Personally, I think this is a valuable asset but if they were to determine otherwise, they don't need to fund it further.

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

@Can_Baran_ You're welcome.

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

Hi Can,
That isn't impossible (though bailout is a little heavy of a term) but I think you are focusing on the wrong part of the picture.
$NRP management is extremely conservative in their communications and they were sprinkling some (for them) optimism on the much larger Mineral Rights segment. Both met and thermal coal prices have risen materially and that should be a major positive going forward.
With respect to the soda ash investment, NRP publishes very little detail. It is hard to know whether the $14M net loss at Sisecam included cost-cutting expenses or was just a normal course operating loss.
I would note that this was the first capital contribution to Sisecam since the purchase of the investment 13 years ago. With a purchase price of about $310M, NRP has already received $500M of distributions.
Also, from 2020 through today, Q1 was just the fourth quarter with a net loss at Sisecam Wyoming (other three were Q2 '20 (-$4.2M), Q3 '25 (-$2.7M), and Q4 '25 (-$1.3M), all on a 100% basis.
I intend to get a better sense of soda ash pricing and impact on Sisecam profitability in the coming week or two. Keep in mind that they are a low cost producer (as a natural soda ash producer versus higher-cost synthetic) and if they get hurt, a large share of production is getting hurt worse.

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

I am certainly not an expert on this. Note though that $NRP specifically pointed to increased natural soda ash in China - "The soda ash market remains significantly oversupplied due to the influx of natural soda ash supply from China coupled with weak demand for flat glass" (10-Q, page 17). This matches statements in the first article link above and the costs cited in the (admittedly dated) second article linked.

Do you believe that Chinese synthetic production costs have significantly declined in recent years or that they generally have always been lower/in-line with natural trona costs and the recent change relates to increased production?

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

$NRP When I commented after Q4, I thought they could meet this target by June 30 and now see that is too quick. I had not accounted for the material tax payment the company makes each Q1 relating to its SBC program ($8.6M this year - see CFF, other items, net) and working capital spend in Q1 ($2.9M). I was also too aggressive in using the $45M of CFO in Q4 as a baseline.

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

$NRP Hey Steven, I still need to take a closer look but generally, yes, no changes to the outlook. Debt should be effectively paid off about September 30 with $30M of cash on the balance sheet. (Note that principal of $14.3M senior debt is due in December so this may stay on the BS until then.)

At March 31, there is $31M cash so that target is already hit, and $60M debt. Even with materially lower volumes this quarter which $NRP stated was a matter of timing, company still brought in $33M of CFO. If you add back the -$2.9M of working capital changes (Q1 is the only quarter that is typically negative on WC with Q2-Q4 being positive or flat) that gets you to a normalized $36M.

Both met and thermal coal pricing has materially increased recently so this should flow through to NRP over the course of the year and was already a small benefit in Q1 (offset by volume decline). All in all, NRP should be able to do $40M of FCF per quarter. Subtract the $10M quarterly dividend and that would get you to no debt (or debt offset by excess cash) by September 30.

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

@rupasubramanya @PierrePoilievre What other federally managed entitlement is being proposed here? Aren't they just calling for a modification to the current program that makes it more flexible?

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

@semery17 I want to spend a little time looking more closely at the soda ash segment as I still believe there is good value there.

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

@CRUDEOIL231 Take a look at the recently published quarterly letter by Goehring and Rozencwajg - https://t.co/2AJ38Jf7RC.

They are very thoughtful commodity-based analysts and have moved from positive to negative on copper over the past year or so.

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

@imanobo02670922 I don't think so. The 3,800 boe/d is in line with Q1 2025 production of 3,835 boe/d. Also, the Company mentioned there being scheduled and unscheduled downtime in Q4.

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

@arthur_thoma @waterboystocks If you don't want to get your own, check around to see if any library you can access has a subscription.

[Steven Balsam @BalsamSteven]

@arthur_thoma @waterboystocks Sure, just buy the online subscription. They run deals here and there. Right now, the main subscription is USD $600 annually.