Funny thing about "priced in" β it's the phrase everyone uses right before the price moves anyway
If a risk is truly priced in, nobody should be surprised when it hits
Yet the surprise keeps happening
Maybe what's priced in is just the story we're comfortable telling ourselves
@elonmusk Leaderboards are a fine scoreboard, but the real test is whether it saves engineering teams money and headaches six months from now, not this week's benchmark
Which use case are you most excited to see it crush in production?
@WSJ Good point, and it's worth remembering supply cuts both ways - buybacks have been quietly soaking up a lot of that issuance the last few years
Watch the net figure, not just gross new shares hitting the market.
Number 12 is the one I'd sit with. Foreigners dumping $110B while local retail piles in on margin is the classic setup where the last buyers are the most leveraged and least informed ones
That's how a decent market turns into a violent one. Worth a watch on those margin call numbers.
@WatcherGuru Worth remembering China's slowdown has more to do with property debt and weak domestic demand than an oil shock thousands of miles away
Pinning it on the war is a tidy headline but not the real story. What's your read on the property overhang?
Good list because half of these cancel each other out - you can't be complacent AND all in on recession fears at the same time
The real tell isn't any one item, it's whether people can even name the bear case anymore
Which one worries you most, the circular capex or the retail flows?
@ZaStocks If the market shifts from rewarding AI spending, to looking for companies that profit from AI end users .... the market is going to tank instantly
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