霏霏

[霏霏 @Bane03550920828]

@EllisWilsonb 看看

[霏霏 @Bane03550920828]

@OrlovVitalechka 1

[霏霏 @Bane03550920828]

这个点 有人在吗？？？

开脱，开脱，上供！！

粉粉嫩嫩的

[霏霏 @Bane03550920828]

抑郁了，有人想加微信吗、、

[霏霏 @Bane03550920828]

还有没睡的吗？？我想看鸡巴..

[霏霏 @Bane03550920828]

@hanging39073368 嘿嘿

[霏霏 @Bane03550920828]

有真男吗 ？我想看鸡巴😍

[Decrypt @DecryptMedia]

Bitcoin Ordinals Upgrade Could Create a Centralized Fork, Creator Says
► https://t.co/bvAdqg2WCU https://t.co/bvAdqg2WCU

[BBC News (World) @BBCWorld]

Zelensky promises more Ukraine-made weapons in new year speech https://t.co/7UCb6pLX17

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

OOPS! Stocks, bonds drop in tandem for worst start to a year in more than 2 decades. (via BBG)

[Santiago R Santos @santiagoroel]

Probabilities can change very quickly. And so I think you should be prepared to change your mind often.

But in school and most other places they don't emphasize this enough. As if it's some heroic act and higher moral ground sticking to your original thesis.

But when you think about it, it's ridiculous to assume you'll get it right at the beginning stages of forming a thesis. You should be changing your mind more often than not as you do more work!

As I sit here today, likely biased by the price action, but processing months of more work I am adjusting my 20% probability that SOL flips ETH. That was Dec 1, 2023 when I came out with that prediction in the episode on @theempirepod. SOL was at $60.

That math assumed 20% * $250B ETH FDMC (on Dec 1) = $50B SOL FDMC = $88 / SOL

SOL is at $123 now.

At the time it felt right as I said it would happen this cycle (probabilities without timing are useless) but I now I don't see a reason why Solana can't be at parity with Ethereum and eventually overtake it. Timing, as always, is tricky...

I'm updating my probability to 80% that Solana converges on Ethereum's market cap this cycle (within ~3 years). Why not 100%?

Well because nothing is 100% but mindful that SOL is a younger network. Although things in tech and markets are not linear or slow once they start working.

But also because I also think ETH's market cap expands during this time, and so aggregate flows in crypto may be a bottleneck.

Although this also assumes rotation within crypto to be more SOL centric. But that is marginal. I think most of the outperformance of SOL and gap closing will be a higher share of new inflows going to SOL relative to other networks. But in crypto correlation is still high so higher SOL also likely means higher ETH and other assets (see price action of AVAX outperforming SOL in last few weeks FWIW)...

But enough with the rant. Uncle duties call so I need to go back to opening presents with little kids. Here's the TLDR and updated math:

I don't see a reason why Solana can't be at parity with Ethereum and eventually overtake it. But pegging probability of that happening this cycle at 80%:

80% * 275B ETH FDMC = $220B SOL FDMC = $400 / SOL

* FDMC and price likely expand for both ETH and SOL, as inflows growth and overall crypto mkt cap grows (high correlation within crypto persists this cycle). So most important thing is the ratio of SOL/ETH and that converging so that FDMC = 1:1

[(DEVICE BEEPS) @StonksReddit]

Christmas is over. Taylor Swift has spoken everybody back to work

[CNBC International @CNBCi]

Dow jumps more than 200 points for ninth winning day, S&P 500 nears record: Live updates https://t.co/dhScB6jQzz

[Hugo Lowell @hugolowell]

Just in: Rudy Giuliani has filed for bankruptcy in New York, per court filings listing debts of as much as $500m and assets of up to $10m

[Bloomberg @business]

As Wall Street rallies on hopes for interest rate cuts in 2024, the real world is still coming to terms with the full weight of central bank tightening https://t.co/R4aF5mOcbC

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

Recently spoke to a very successful 61 year old investor/trader. Like what Michael Santoli likes to do with his "Mystery Broker" segment, I'll call this person my Mystery Trader.

He said he's always viewed stock trading like a video game. Kept it simple. Ignored all the noise. Never turned on CNBC or read articles much. It was just he, himself, and him. Long story short, he thinks the current FOMO momentum will take stocks to all time highs into January 2024.

Kthxbye.

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

#nba #knicks The New York Knicks are one DeMar DeRozan away from being an NBA Finals contender.

Debate me.

[Decrypt @DecryptMedia]

This Week on Crypto Twitter: BONK Simply Won’t Quit
► https://t.co/ZdOgbvujdf https://t.co/ZdOgbvujdf

[Alex @alex_avoigt]

I recommend that every $tsla investor carefully reads Cern's valuation for Tesla's Humanoid Robot