No plays today so here’s an official November recap. A historic month for us both on official and personal plays. Didn’t end on as high of a note as we wanted but still had the best month we’ve had since being able to bet cbb props
Last 4 days, 21-21, -.96u
+84.5u in November!
Estrella averages almost 3 Orebs per game on the szn and that is with very sporadic mins. In games where he has played 21+ mins he avgs 7.9 Rebs overall.
Iowa st/Tennessee
JP Estrella over 6.5 Rebs
There’s not too much for me to say on the Iowa st side without knowing the status of Jefferson so I am avoiding. On the Tennessee side, the one thing the cyclones struggled with is giving up offensive rebounds because of their double
Teams and overall aggressiveness/scrambling on help defense. Tennessee has plenty of great offensive rebounders on the team but I am targeting Estrella as I think he has some extra minutes equity if he stays out of foul trouble. Iowa st doesn’t scare me in drawing fouls here.
doing the opposite. If sparty has a chance, it will come at the hands of Fears taking over and a favorable whistle against Reed. Uconn funnels dribble operators to the middle. Fears will need to knock down midrange jumpers/floaters or go right into the chest of Reed and foul bait
UConn/Mich St
Jeremy Fears over 15.5 pts
Alex Karaban over 12.5 pts
I believe the Mich st/Uconn game comes down to a halfcourt battle. Mich st really struggled against a similar offensive look from Minnesota during conference and I see them getting lost from the offball junk
that hurley will use. At the center of this I see a rejuvenated and aggressive Karaban being able to get open from 3 off the hedge and finding openings offball through cuts/screens. The 12.5 seems too low for a guy getting hot at the right time and his teammates (cough solo ball)
I am also willing to play Yaxel Lendeborg over 16.5 pts. I got 15.5 earlier in the week, but with Yaxels versatile scoring, I am grabbing him over Morez or Mara. I also like the extra minutes equity vs the other two at a similar price.
Michigan/Bama
Elliot Cadeau over 6.5 ast
Yaxel Lendeborg over 16.5 pts
Aidan Sherrell over .5 threes made (parlay/dfs only…too juiced on own)
One of bamas paths to success is to stretch the Michigan trio of bigs to defend the perimeter. I wish there were Taylor Bol Bowen
feeding the wolves. Since Cason went down, he is avg 31.7 mins and 6.4 ast in the final 7 games (including a foul trouble 21 min/1 ast game vs Wisconsin). Take out that game, those numbers jump to 33.5 mins and 7.3 ast per game.
avg’d 24+ mins over the last 8 games while Illini has been fully healthy. Houston will hedge, play the gaps, double the post. The one thing they give up: backside corner 3’s which Big Ben hum feasts on. He has 5/2/3/2/0 threes when playing similar D’s and getting 20+ mins
💴 SWEET 16 PLAYS 💴
Thursday
Texas/Purdue
Dailyn Swain over 16.5 pts- Purdue weak defending the wing. Swain a good iso scorer, averaging 17.4 should be able to take advantage especially when tkr and cluff both playing together.
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Illini/Houston
A lot that looks good but not great here…going with the ugly play of the day:
Ben Humrichous over 4.5 pts…I think 2 things need to happen in order for this to come through: Ben to shoot 33% from three and to play 20+ mins. Ben is a career 37% shooter and has..