BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰

My Bots do crazy things, never try this at home. #AI #ML#ENSEMBLE it’s Logarithms fault. Luck is serially correlated #FishyFishy #MaLFoDGA🍉 #DeleteMeta #Peace

[BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ @BankofVol]

What Bank of Volatility is, in one page: the daily briefing before the US open, a systematic book run since 2016, and three trades from the August book with their results as they were posted. Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

[BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ @BankofVol]

ES 7700 C short [XX% of the premium kept] ; we sold at 63.25 on Ocotber 16th and bought back at 10 this morning so 84.1% PnL.

[BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ @BankofVol]

Before the open this morning the Brazil ETF was marked 25% lower and Petrobras 21%. Our Brazil position (Call spread) had been closed on Friday at the bell. Half of it had been sold at +100%, the other half went on Friday at +181%, which makes +141% on the whole line.

The reason was written to paid subscribers in the Substack Chat on Friday at 16:26, five and a half hours before the close, and it had nothing to do with a hunch about the result. Polymarket gave Bolsonaro a 77% chance of winning on Sunday. A 77% event is a priced event. Brazil had already rallied 27% this year on that outcome, so the best thing a win could do for the position on Monday was a sell-the-news dip. The best case was a dip. The other case was the one that happened. A position whose best outcome is a dip and whose worst outcome is zero has no reason to exist, whatever the polls say, and that is the sentence we posted on Friday afternoon.

Put yourself in the chair that afternoon. You are up 181% on the second half and the polls say your side wins. Every cell in your body says hold, there is another 100% in this, you have earned it. A paper gain already feels like property and selling it feels like giving something away. Academics call it the endowment effect. On a desk it has a shorter name, the trade that gave it all back.

On Monday morning that position was worth zero. A gap of that size wipes it out, premium included. The polls were wrong for everyone, nobody had the forecast, and the forecast was never the point. The asymmetry was.

Same morning, second exit. The index hedge we sold on 16 October was bought back at 10:00 CET with the future at 7,670, [XX% of the premium kept]. By the close the future was 45 points higher and the same hedge would have handed part of that back. Both exits were decided by the book, hours before the market made the case for them.

That is what a systematic book is for. Bank of Volatility has run one since 2016, and paid subscribers read both decisions in the Substack Chat before they happened, with the time stamp: https://t.co/S0JmhBM5Bu

Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

[BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ @BankofVol]

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary
Monday 26 October 2026, 13:15 CET

🌅 THE TAPE AT MIDDAY
• /ES 7,687 (+0.36%), /NQ 29,276 (+0.54%), /YM 52,641 (+0.47%), /RTY 2,795 (+0.37%): a modest bounce after two losing weeks, semis in front (SOXL +3.7%, MU +2.1%, AVGO +1.3%, NVDA +0.9%).
• VIX 19.16 (−1.5%). November /VX 19.15 and December 19.18 sit on top of spot, a flat curve into the Fed; Friday's inverted front has unwound.
• 10-year 5.01% (+1 bp), 2-year 4.71%, 30-year 5.32%. Three weeks of falling yields have brought the 10-year back to the 5% line.
• Oil is the one thing going down: USO −2.8% pre-market, WTI around $101 and Brent around $115 after last week's six-month highs. Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Sunday in coordination with Washington, while the attacks on Saudi Arabia continue.
• Gold spot 4,017 (+0.45%), December futures 4,032 (+0.6%), silver +0.25%, BTC 80,330 (+0.3%).
• EUR/USD 1.1197, USD/CHF 0.8261.

🇧🇷 BRAZIL, THE SHOCK OF THE DAY
• Lula won a fourth term on Sunday, against the polls and against the whole Latin American swing to the right. Flavio Bolsonaro has refused to concede.
• EWZ −25% pre-market (31.85), PBR −21% (20.65), Itau −28%, Bradesco −27%, Nu −24%, MercadoLibre −10%. The 2037 dollar bond lost 1.1 points before São Paulo even opened (14:00 CET). The Ibovespa came into this at +27% year to date.
• Capital Economics now sees no rate cut at the two remaining meetings of the year: fiscal risk and the real are back in charge. Elsewhere in EM, Serbia's Vucic conceded to the student movement and the yuan sits at a four-year high.

📅 THE WEEK
• Fed Wednesday 19:00 CET, press conference 19:30: a hold after September's hike is the consensus, December stays live, with at least two more quarter-point hikes priced by mid-2027. ECB Thursday and BoJ Friday, both expected on hold.
• Earnings: Verizon this morning (guidance raised, a $2bn-plus AWS deal for AI infrastructure), MSFT and GOOGL Wednesday after the close, AMZN and INTC Thursday, SK Hynix and Samsung in Korea the same week. Data: new home sales Tuesday, Q3 GDP first estimate (consensus 3.2%) and September PCE Thursday. Midterms on Tuesday 3 November.
• The US close is 21:00 CET all week: Europe changed its clocks, the US does so on 1 November.

Parts 2 and 3 on Substack: https://t.co/aJZSgHD1Mk
Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.
Bank of Volatility

[BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ @BankofVol]

Apparently the Ballon d’or ranking has leaked and there has been suspicious big bets on Polymarket on this ranking:
1 Kane
2 Mbappé
3 Yamal
4 Rodri
5 Messi

We will see tomorrow it true

What’s the SEC doing?

[BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ @BankofVol]

Big if true

[BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ @BankofVol]

Every retail trader I talk to is long AI up to the neck. The reason is always the same: they use it every day now, and once you have seen what it does to your own work you want a piece of the stocks.

The market priced that a year ago. What feels like a discovery today was the consensus trade of October 2025, so anyone buying because they have just realised AI is real is trading on information the price absorbed months ago.

The internet went through the same cycle. Adoption ran exactly as the optimists of 1999 promised, which did nothing to stop most internet stocks from going to zero. The Nasdaq needed fifteen years to get back to its March 2000 high. Amazon lost more than 90% of its value before it became Amazon.

AI will likely follow the same road: adoption on the scale of the internet or even bigger, with a winner-takes-most logic that leaves most of today's AI stocks, each priced as if it were the winner, dumped to the ground. The few winners that emerge from the rout are rarely the names everybody owned going in.

My read is that more money will be made on the short side than on the long side in the coming weeks. Those who confuse the adoption of a technology with the price of its stocks will be blinded by the first when the second turns.

Bank of Volatility has run a systematic book since 2016 and writes the daily commentary for paid subscribers since 2025: https://t.co/S0JmhBLxLW

Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

[BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ @BankofVol]

The hedge we put on at Friday's close lost money nearly every day this week. Each session the tape went the other way, each evening the mark was a little worse, and each morning the same question came back: cut it and stop the bleeding?

Kahneman answered that question forty years ago. A loss hurts about twice as much as an equal gain feels good, so a discretionary trader sitting on a hedge that bleeds three days in a row cuts it, not because the reason for the hedge has changed, but because the pain has to stop. The hedge then comes off the day before it is needed. Every trader has done it. We have done it, decades ago, which is why we no longer trade that way.

This is the whole case for a systematic book. The models that run ours do not feel Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday. The hedge went on because the model said so at Friday's close, it stays on until the model says otherwise, and the daily mark is a number in a column, not a feeling. This morning the Nasdaq futures are down 1.9%, the VIX is up 11%, and the hedge pays for the whole week in one session so far, "Kaboom".

Nobody holds a losing hedge through a week of a rising market on willpower. A system does, because it has no willpower to lose. That is how Bank of Volatility has run its book since 2016, and paid subscribers saw this hedge go on at Friday's close, in the Substack Chat, before the week started: https://t.co/S0JmhBLxLW

Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

[BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ @BankofVol]

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary
Thursday 22 October 2026, 11:55 CEST

🌍 WHAT MOVED MARKETS
• The AI scare is back within hours of the prints meant to bury it. Meta beat on revenue and guided the fourth quarter above estimates, then raised capex to 135 to 145 billion dollars, showed a 2.1 billion free cash flow deficit and announced a new class of non-voting shares for January to pay for it: up 1% early, now down 1.5% at 687. Tesla cut 2026 capex to about 20 billion from more than 25 and turned free cash flow positive by spending less on AI and robots: down 5% pre-market.
• Asia sold everything tech: KOSPI down more than 4%, Nikkei down 2.65% to 62,908, Hang Seng down 3%, CSI 300 down 2% at the edge of a bear market, MSCI Asia ex Japan at a 3 month low. Tokyo Electron fell 6%, SK Hynix 5.7%, Alibaba 6.5%. DeepSeek is closing a 15 billion dollar round.
• Europe gave back Wednesday's gains: CAC 40 7,828, down 1.2%, DAX down 1%, FTSE down 0.7%, Stoxx 600 down 0.95%, banks down 2.7%. Hermès fell 7% on a China decline and dragged the luxury names; Barclays cuts 5,000 jobs under an AI cost plan; Nestlé, Roche and Thales beat; Nokia beat on AI sales up 123% and still fell 5.6%.
• The French bond crossed the United States: the 10 year OAT at 5.09%, up 8 bp, its highest since July 2002, trades above the US 10 year for the first time since 2013, 169 bp over Bunds, the widest since 2011. Treasuries are the haven: US 10 year 5.07%, down 6 bp.
• Oil adds the pressure: Brent 111.03, up more than 2%, USO up 2%, near a five month high after new Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. XLE up 1.3%, the only green sector.
• Futures at 11:50 CEST: /ES 7,714.75, down 1.10%, /NQ 29,451.75, down 1.85%, Dow 52,699, down 0.7%, Russell 2,769, down 0.9%. VIX 18.54, up 11%, a point from the 18.7 line that says the scare is back; November VIX future 18.80, December 18.85, spot below the front no backwardation yet: a market buying protection today.

📈 EQUITIES
• Pre-market offered: Tesla −5%, IBM −6% despite a beat and a higher software guide, Lam Research −6% despite a revenue beat, Strategy −5.8%, Bloom Energy −5.9%, Corning −4.5%, Super Micro −4.5%, IonQ −4.3%, Micron −3.4% at 882, AMD −4.5% at 528, Alibaba −4.5%, Broadcom −2.9%, Oracle −2.8%, Nvidia −2.4% at 216.60, the Korea ETF −3.2%, QQQ 712.07 −1.8%, SPY 765.03 −1.0%, the 3x semis ETF −11.3%. Bid: CSX +2.4% on results, Southwest +1.5%, J&J +0.9%, the healthcare ETF +0.5%, TLT +0.6%, Apple flat at 344.
• Texas Instruments guided above estimates on AI data centre chips. Today: Procter & Gamble, Honeywell, Dow, Union Pacific, Blackstone, Valero and American Airlines before the open; Western Digital, Newmont, Deckers and Bloom Energy after the close.

Parts 2 and 3 (rates, FX, oil, metals, crypto, AI, calendar, bottom line) free on Substack:

Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

[BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ @BankofVol]

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary
Wednesday 21 October 2026, 13:10 CEST

🌍 WHAT MOVED MARKETS
• Earnings are winning the argument against the AI debt scare this morning. 13% of the S&P 500 has reported and 86% beat on profits. Super Micro guided well above estimates on AI data-centre demand and trades up 16% pre-market, pulling Micron up 2.7% to 920.62, Nvidia up 2.0% to 220.81, Intel 2.4% and AMD 1.7%; the 3x semis ETF is up 4.9%.
• SpaceX more than doubled revenue in the third quarter and trades up 9%, with Rocket Lab 3.7%; Musk called a Tesla merger "a good idea" and both boards have set up special committees. Netflix is the loser of the morning, down 6.4% to 64.30 on a weak profit guide days after cutting 6% of staff. United Airlines warned on fourth quarter profit over fuel; the FAA approved the 737 MAX 10.
• Asia bounced after Tuesday's rout: KOSPI up 3.3%, the Korea ETF up 2.6% pre-market, Nikkei up close to 1%. China is the exception, Hong Kong at a 15 week low, Alibaba down 2.4%. NextDC, the Australian data-centre operator, lost half its value on a guidance cut: the AI debt theme has moved to the weakest names.
• France pays for the riots: the 10 year OAT crossed 5% for the first time since July 2002, 160 bp over Bunds at 3.4%, and Carrefour fell 13% on a warning blamed on the unrest. Paris still rebounds on results, CAC 40 up 0.5% at 7,877 with EssilorLuxottica up 14%; DAX up 0.6%, FTSE 0.1%.
• Oil holds the highs: WTI November 101.09, down 0.7% on the day, Brent around 111. A diplomat dismissed reports of an imminent deal to end the US-Iran conflict while confirming talks continue; Moscow says the first Russian diesel cargo for the United States ships Thursday. Jio's 3.2 billion dollar IPO in Mumbai was covered in under two hours.
• Futures at 13:05 CEST: /ES 7,771.50, up 0.21%, /NQ 29,842.50, up 0.56%, Dow futures 52,732 flat, Russell futures 2,786.8. VIX 17.36, down 0.3%; the October VIX future settles this morning at 17.05, December trades 18.56, VVIX 97.

📈 EQUITIES
• Pre-market bid: Super Micro +16%, SpaceX +9%, AXT +4.5%, Bloom Energy +3.8%, Coherent +3.7%, Micron +2.7%, CoreWeave +2.5%, Strategy +2.5%, Oracle +1.5%, QQQ 721.55 +0.55%, SPY 770.41 +0.18%. Offered: Netflix −6.4%, Alibaba −2.4%, Hesai −2.6%, the healthcare ETF −0.65%, J&J −0.5%, Apple −0.4%.
• Tonight after the close: Meta, where AI capex and the Muse assistant are the questions, and Tesla, with the SpaceX merger talk on top of the numbers. Also today: Hasbro beat, Elevance raised its 2026 guide, Intuitive Surgical trimmed procedure growth, Thermo Fisher, Danaher and Capital One beat.

Parts 2 and 3 (rates, FX, oil, metals, crypto, AI, calendar, bottom line) are free on Substack: https://t.co/S4r0r0qYzT

Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

[BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ @BankofVol]

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary
Tuesday 20 October 2026, 11:55 CEST

🌍 WHAT MOVED MARKETS
• The AI debt scare moved to Asia overnight. The KOSPI fell 3.73% to 5,553 with Samsung down 3.2%, SK hynix 4.7% and Hanwha Aerospace 11.7%; the Nikkei lost 1.3% to 64,075, a one month low, with SoftBank down 6% as its credit default swaps hit a four year high, and the Japanese banks fell 4% to 5%. The Korea ETF trades 3.5% lower pre-market.
• Wall Street had bounced on Monday, the S&P 500 up 0.41% and the Nasdaq Composite 1.11%, with Micron up 3%, SanDisk 5.5%, Amazon 5% and Tesla 3.8%. The bounce is fading before the bell: Micron down 2.6%, Bloom Energy 3.6%, CoreWeave 2.8%, Nebius 3.2%.
• Oil is back at the month's highs. Brent 111.55, up 1.8%, WTI 100.71, up 2.2%. Iran keeps asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz with several ships attacked, Tehran blames Washington for the insecurity, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia keep trading strikes, and Russia and Ukraine resumed attacks on each other's energy plants. Washington is authorising the sale of sanctioned tankers so the dark fleet, about 1,600 ships, can carry crude legally.
• OpenAI is racing to close a funding round at more than 1.4 trillion dollars before Anthropic's IPO, planned for mid November, Reuters reports. JPMorgan says bank exposure to CoreWeave is limited and well collateralised, with 24 billion of delayed-draw loans, 15 billion drawn, and keeps it overweight with a 125 target.
• Europe is down a second day: Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.96% to a four month low, DAX 0.94%, FTSE MIB 0.98%, CAC 40 0.83%, FTSE 100 0.75%, the STOXX 600 tech index 1.5%. Schneider lost 4% on a capital increase at 240 euros, ABB 6.6% on results, OVHcloud gained 10%. French OATs recovered a little after Lecornu's curfews calmed the streets.
• Futures at 11:50 CEST: /ES 7,728, down 0.08%, /NQ 29,590, down 0.45%, Dow futures up 0.2%. VIX 18.73, up 1.6%, the October VIX future 18.60 under December at 18.96, with the October contract expiring tomorrow.

📈 EQUITIES
• Pre-market losers: Micron 881.34 down 2.6%, Bloom Energy down 3.6%, Corning 2.0%, Strategy 1.9%, Nokia 1.9%, Oracle 1.7%, Tempus 1.6%, IonQ 1.3%, Nvidia 216.37 down 0.3%; the 3x inverse semis ETF up 4.2%. Bid: the energy ETF up 0.9%, J&J 0.8%, Transocean 1.9%, Petrobras 0.9%, the 20 year Treasury ETF 0.3%.
• Today's earnings: GM before the open, SpaceX and Netflix after the close, plus GE, RTX and United Airlines. The FAA is expected to certify the 737 MAX 10 today; Tradeweb buys Trumid for 1.97 billion dollars.
• Rest of Asia: Hang Seng down 1.47%, Shanghai up 0.12%, Istanbul up 1.2%.

Parts 2 and 3 (rates, FX, oil, metals, crypto, AI, calendar, bottom line) are free on Substack: https://t.co/8uYBccAiPZ

Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

[BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ @BankofVol]

That’s my man.

Short with two hands.

[Autopilot @joinautopilot]

Breaking: Jim Cramer says the market "cleaned out the sellers"

[BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ @BankofVol]

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary
Monday 19 October 2026, 14:55 CEST

🌍 WHAT MOVED MARKETS
- Chips are bouncing before the bell. Micron trades 3.6% higher pre-market, Nvidia 1.8%, Broadcom and Qualcomm 2.5%, Intel 3.8% on a JPMorgan upgrade, and CoreWeave 3% after losing more than 25% last week. The 3x semis ETF is up 10.7% pre-market and the 3x inverse Nasdaq ETF down 3.8%.
- Europe opened the week with riots. Saturday's protests against the cost of living in France turned into violence and looting in several cities, with unrest in Belgium, Italy and Portugal too. The CAC 40 is down 1.56%, the Euro Stoxx 50 1.18%, the DAX 1.36%, the FTSE MIB 1.75% and the IBEX 1.68%; the French 10 year rose 7bp to 4.86% against 1bp for the Bund at 3.42%. Accor lost 3%, URW 2.7%.
- Oil holds the week's gains: WTI 101.00 after a 10% rise last week, Brent 108.43. A Saudi helicopter crashed near the Yemen border, the Houthis hit the Yanbu export hub and two tankers were struck in the Gulf. Energy Secretary Wright says Gulf shipments are back to about 80% of pre-war levels.
- Trump agreed a diesel export deal with Russia and waived tariffs and sanctions on its energy shipments to support the Ukraine talks; lawmakers filed a bill to block the purchases.
- China's third quarter GDP grew 4.5%, above the 4.4% expected, with industrial output at 5.5% and retail sales at 1.1%; the Shanghai Composite closed up 0.39%. The KOSPI rose 1.76% on institutional buying while the Nikkei fell 0.62% as the AI names kept sliding.
- The Fed is in its blackout before the 27–28 October meeting, with about 84% priced for a hold after Warsh's silence on Friday.
- Futures at 14:45 CEST: /ES 7,738.50, up 0.44%, /NQ 29,752.50, up 1.23%, /YM 52,085, down 0.25%, /RTY 2,746.40, up 0.40%. VIX 18.61, down 6.9%, the October VIX future 18.40 back under December at 18.72, so Friday's inversion is gone.

📈 EQUITIES
- Pre-market: Micron 910.40 up 3.6%, Nvidia 218.08 up 1.8%, Oracle up 2.1%, Palo Alto up 2.5%, Bloom Energy up 4.8%, Corning up 3.4%, Strategy up 1.9%; the Korea ETF up 5.5%. Defensives give back Friday's bid: J&J down 1.0%, the healthcare ETF down 0.7%, the energy ETF down 1.0%.
- Microsoft pulled out of a data center deal with Britain's Nscale, the Telegraph reports; JPMorgan put 5 billion dollars of equity into sectors it calls strategic for US security; the EU told KKR it may have given misleading information in the 2024 NetCo review.
- Rest of Asia and Europe: Hang Seng up 0.52%, Sensex down 1.17%, FTSE 100 down 1.29%, SMI down 0.62%, Istanbul down 1.17%.

Parts 2 and 3 (rates, FX, oil with the Monday COT read, metals, crypto, AI, calendar, bottom line) are free on Substack: https://t.co/l5jgdQX6H5

Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

[BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ @BankofVol]

TOS just moved to 24x7 trading. They are printing the last for US stocks pre-market.

[BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ @BankofVol]

If AI stocks are dumping because a fund is blowing up then the moment the blow-up is confirmed and Citadel has their portfolio at a cent on the dollar, we go in with leverage and buy every name they held.
But here is the catch, if AI stocks are dumping and no fund is blowing up, then you short them with leverage, as it means the AI crash is coming.

[BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ @BankofVol]

$MU at $897 is priced at 5 times what analysts expect it to earn next year. $TSLA near $360 goes for 186 times forward.
A dollar of Tesla's past earnings costs you 30 times what the same dollar costs at Micron, and on forward numbers the gap widens to about 35 times.
Adjust for growth and it gets stranger, with Micron's PEG at 0.07 against Tesla's near 10. Micron just printed around $74 in trailing EPS after a surge that caught most of the street flat footed, while Tesla's trailing EPS of roughly $1.08 has been shrinking.
The market has decided memory is a cycle and Tesla is a story. Which one would you rather own at these prices?
Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

[BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ @BankofVol]

AI used right

[BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ @BankofVol]

Looks like we are in Leopold sequel, not sure which AI 10x levered fund is going under rn

[BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ @BankofVol]

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary
Friday 16 October 2026, 12:45 CEST

🌍 WHAT MOVED MARKETS
- Jakarta had its worst day since January 1998. The Jakarta Composite closed down 11.57% after MSCI said Indonesia no longer deserves emerging market status and set out a plan to drop it from its emerging indices, a move that would pull billions of passive dollars out; the rupiah fell as far as 18,070 per dollar. MSCI takes comments until April 2027 and decides by June 2027. Turkish stocks lost 3.2% after MSCI suspended some index changes there.
- The rest of Asia bounced after Thursday's rout. The Nikkei rose 1.39% to 65,324 and the KOSPI 2.05% to 5,668, with foreign buyers back for 343.5 billion won, though Tokyo still ends the week down 5.37%, its worst week since July.
- CoreWeave stays the stress point of the AI trade. Its October 2031 dollar bond briefly yielded more than 16% on Thursday, protection on its debt topped 1,000bp for a record, and the stock trades 4.1% lower before the bell, down about 15% on the week, with roughly 50 billion dollars of debt on the balance sheet.
- Fed Chair Warsh kept his cards close in Bangkok, saying hotter inflation had not changed his view of the economy. Traders price about a 72% chance of a hold on 28 October and 92% for a December hike, and Cleveland's Hammack warned the Fed may have to hike harder if inflation expectations slip.
- The dollar index fell 0.93% to 101.60, on course for its first weekly loss after three weeks of gains.
- Futures at 12:45 CEST: /ES 7,805, about 0.2% higher, /NQ 30,128, VIX 16.09, down 2.3%, the October VIX future 16.98 and December 18.12. Today brings the October monthly options expiry.

📈 EQUITIES
- Thursday's close: the Dow up 1.08% and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.08%, after Huang's defence of CoreWeave eased the pressure on chips. Over the week the Nasdaq is on track for a loss of more than 2% while the Dow heads for a gain near 1%.
- Pre-market: Tesla up 4% on a redesigned Roadster due in 2028, J.B. Hunt down more than 20% after missing on transport, fuel and insurance costs, Varonis higher on Proofpoint's 6.3 billion dollar bid. Micron trades 1.7% under Thursday's close and Strategy 2.8%. GM and Travelers report before the open.
- Europe at midday: Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.91%, DAX 1.20%, IBEX 1.20%, FTSE MIB 1.07%, CAC 40 0.53%, SMI 0.24%, FTSE 100 0.14%. Euro zone September inflation was confirmed at 3.8%, a three year high.

Parts 2 and 3 (rates, FX, oil, metals, crypto, AI, calendar, bottom line) are free on Substack: https://t.co/NArMCPMUX7

Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.