Greg Harmon

CFB analytics without an agenda (unless its ND). I just run the numbers. By Greg Harmon. ☘️ ND ’17

[Greg Harmon @BarGraphCFB]

The ND discourse has been all process - rankings shows, head-to-head, ACC politics.

All worth debating. But somewhere in the noise, a simpler question got lost: Was Notre Dame actually a top 10 team?

The data says yes. It's not close.

https://t.co/2Q1w8HBM7D

[Greg Harmon @BarGraphCFB]

I don’t know why the committee doesn’t just release their proprietary SOR/SOS/underlying power ratings.

My guess is their SOR drives a significant percentage of their ultimate ratings, but since the public doesn’t have it, most of the public “reveal” is circular arguments based on their own rankings which leads to the confusion

[Greg Harmon @BarGraphCFB]

RT @tjmcaulay: In summary, these two plays are remarkably similar and demonstrate the exact same rule application. In neither, did the rece…

[Greg Harmon @BarGraphCFB]

@theblockspot Can you please explain?

[Greg Harmon @BarGraphCFB]

@chrisfallica @PeteFiutak Why is Ok State a better win than Wisconsin?

[Greg Harmon @BarGraphCFB]

I don’t know how many different ways to phrase that I agree with you. The exact point I was trying to make was who gives a shit, in response to someone saying that we should give a shit (and ultimately in college football today, those narratives actually matter)

I’d love a rematch. I think it would be a good game. I think somewhere else on this thread I said if they played ten times they’d probably split them - I am in no ways trying to disparage Miami here

[Greg Harmon @BarGraphCFB]

No that is not my point. My point is either we need to tally up all the injured players or just not consider injured players in how we evaluate the game

Cherry picking the theoretical impact of one player (Vegas said 2 pts btw) and ignoring the actual value of another player (we have a 12 drive sample size from the actual game to evaluate) is literally an untenable argument

If I had it my way, we could all just say it was a close game, both teams were beat up, and they’re both national championship contenders.

I am simply responding to the take I’ve heard north of 50 times this week which I view as misguided at best and deceptive at worse

[Greg Harmon @BarGraphCFB]

@aj_edwards56 @JoelKlattShow @CFBONFOX I can get behind this. That isn’t what Joel is saying but I agree - Miami absolutely made it a game

Those teams probably split the series if they played 10 times. By no means trying to disparage Miami

[Greg Harmon @BarGraphCFB]

@chandler_b03 @JoelKlattShow @CFBONFOX 🤝. I think we’re on the same page

[Greg Harmon @BarGraphCFB]

Sorry. That is precisely my point. Both teams are injured - I personally think a tit for tat injury debate is a waste of everyone’s time.

My only point is I’ve seen a version of Joel’s take 50 times this week and it’s nonsense to consider one injury and not all the injuries

My personal view is consider none of the injuries

[Greg Harmon @BarGraphCFB]

@Chris49467 @JoelKlattShow @CFBONFOX You are making my point. I agree with you - injuries happen.

My point is it is irrational to give Miami disproportionate credit for keeping the game close without Toney

[Greg Harmon @BarGraphCFB]

@AlexGonzo2525 @Justin_Albers @SamENole Haha. Ok.

[Greg Harmon @BarGraphCFB]

This is simply disingenuous. Ignore Notre Dame’s pregame injuries (injuries happen!)

We can have a theoretical argument about Malachi Toney’s theoretical impact on the game (Vegas said he’s worth two points)

What we do know is Leonard Moore’s actual impact on the game - Miami has the ball 12 times. With him on the field they had the ball 10 times, had 253 yards and 10 points. Without they scored 14 points and had 117 yards in two drives.

He also happens to be 1 of 2 players other than Mali who has a potential claim to best player in college football so it’s not cherry picking random drives

Without that, the game wasn’t close.

I also don’t think that it should matter whether or not it was close! Notre Dame’s loss was also a close game to a top 12 team in your rankings.

But to blame the Toney injury while also saying the game was close is blatantly inconsistent.

[Greg Harmon @BarGraphCFB]

@Bit_Squatch @dannykanell Appreciate the convo. Best of luck to your dawgs

[Greg Harmon @BarGraphCFB]

Yeah the question is how do you define “obvious control” and “obvious possession”?

What you’re describing is the rule currently, the definition of control just requires a time element (the completing the process of the catch). If you eliminate that element, I think it’s basically impossible to officiate and you’ll have an undesirable outcome (without a time element, I think my hypotheticals would both be catches)

The difference between a catch and a ball carrier is you already have control/possession so the second any part of the ball touches the goal line the play is dead, and if you don’t have control anymore it’s a fumble.

I don’t actually think the rule is different, it’s just all about how you define control

[Greg Harmon @BarGraphCFB]

Interesting but fair.

I think the one I struggle with is picture a Hail Mary situation - should the play be dead the minute the guys feet (or in college, foot) hit the ground?

Similarly the classic getting lit up by a safety over the middle play, if you catch the ball, take a step and get rocked and the ball comes out, should that be a TD?

Definitely something rational minds can disagree on tho, so get it, as a defensive guy would make red zone defense near impossible

[Greg Harmon @BarGraphCFB]

Just to clarify - you’re saying that is the rule (it isn’t) or it should be the rule?

Assuming the latter, I get the viewpoint. My personal view is the rule dictating at which point you “have possession” should be the same everywhere on the field. You can’t score without possession

The rule by which you “have possession” is the three elements we’ve been hearing about for the last 48 hours

I’ll try to find the video, but when you see the angle at full speed from the sideline (head on to the receiver) I am very surprised that people genuinely believe that should be a catch

[Greg Harmon @BarGraphCFB]

I am a Notre Dame fan, so will disclaim that.

But putting that and any and all existing rules aside - I actually feel strongly it shouldn’t be a catch.

As a defensive player, you deserve the chance to dislodge the ball as the receiver is tucking it

As an offensive player and this thing happened at mid field, it would be extremely unfair to be a fumble

[Greg Harmon @BarGraphCFB]

@CamJordan4Fins This is not true. It is no different than in the field of play.

https://t.co/dsFgtJnTQG

[CBS Sports College Football 🏈 @CBSSportsCFB]

"Final decision: no catch in the Notre Dame-Miami game."

@GeneSteratore breaks down the incompletion on the pass to Elija Lofton.