My lecture at my book launch at the JCPA on Iranian sanctions & the survivability of the Iranian regime. https://t.co/kLFnPE2LPq … #IranDeal#IranProtests#iranregimechange Follow Barak Seener on Youtube
@ColePalmer_CFC7@AJHeadtoHead@mehdirhasan It would be a war crime if it was part of a wartime strategy to hide behind human shields. That is not what the British military does.
@AJHeadtoHead@mehdirhasan@sanambna The draft of that State Department document contradicts other documents, eg a March 10 letter to the United Nations, that uses the phrase "in cooperation with Israel". The White House & Pentagon contradicted 1st draft.
Very bad history to base entire government approach on 1 doc
@GlasgowBhoy@DBDesRoches@GiorgioCafiero@mehdirhasan@mashabani@sanambna@AJEnglish Is there establishment of buffer zones in response to rocket attacks 'stolen land' when the adjacent state is a failed state that cannot enforce a peace agreement?
Would the displacement of Israelis from their homes in the north of Israel be deemed ethnic cleansing of Israelis?
@DBDesRoches@GlasgowBhoy@GiorgioCafiero@mehdirhasan@mashabani@sanambna@AJEnglish The questioning of 'ethnic cleansing of the Shiite in southern Lebanon' failed to mention the context of Hezbollah firing rockets. Moreover not referring to Israel's attempts to create buffer zones wasn't strategic analysis, but played into simplistic narrative of demonise Israel
Set aside whether a deal with Iran is close (I doubt it).
POTUS just handed the Iranian regime & Hezbollah a gift. They can now constrain Israel by threatening diplomatic progress.
Can Israel strike Hezbollah again after more rocket fire? Can it attack Iran after more missiles?
Iran establishes new norms of terror & not accountable.
Trump - “It’s not going to have any impact on the deal… But they [missile strikes on Israel] were attacks that did not kick at all. It’s one of those things been going for3,000 years, or47 years, depending on how you count
- Operationalise approx 30 out of 33 missile sites near the Strait of Hormuz
- Reconstitute to a fully or partially active status close to 90% of Iran’s underground storage & launch facilities
The ceasefire with Iran emboldened Iran making the regime more resilient, causing the conflict to be more protracted, more expensive with a greater toll on the international economy. The opposite would have occurred had US/Israel given Iran no respite.
The ceasefire enabled Iran to:
- Dig up 85% of missiles buried under rubble and reconstitute its capabilities.
- Unblock 50 out of the 69 tunnel entrances & regain access to 1000 ballistic missiles