Most analysis on Iran is still stuck in a 1980–1990 template: outdated assumptions about nation-states, opposition capacity, minority politics, and Turkey’s role.
But the ground reality has changed.
Reports that the CIA is arming Iranian Kurdish forces expose a deeper contradiction:
parts of Iran’s opposition are attacking the only groups with real operational capacity inside the country.
The Kurdish parties never stopped fighting Tehran.
If Kurds across the region draw the right lessons from 2015–2017, they could be in a position to shape events.
And much will depend on how Turkey approaches this moment — a strategic opening not seen since Yavuz Sultan Selim.
My article from last night:
https://t.co/heaBrwgYo4
@Muppetiers Seems like he's given up tbh. He no longer believes in the players and most of them have clearly lost faith in him. So he churns out the same setup once a week, waiting for the payout and the sweet release.
@RobertCorp They run on Openreach so in terms of speed and reliability it will be the same as most of the others, leaving price, support and comms as the only real deciding factors.
10 years ago it was a firm meh from me.
@J_JHelin@ed_haywood Could it be as simple as Russia lacking other/better options after Plan A and B failed last year? Better to be doing *something*, make it as hard as possible for Ukraine and hope it'll exhaust morale and manpower?