Another tragic news.
In some geographies, a state of exception renders human lives invisible—like the 68 Ethiopian migrants killed off Yemen's coast this week.
Many migrants die suffer, and disappear without trace, their stories buried beneath desert sands or lost beneath the sea far from headlines.
Oftentimes these tragedies rarely make headlines—neither in the Global North nor South—erased as if they never existed.
https://t.co/yn0p8VdhMd
A rare insight from rural western Oromia and into the Oromo Liberation Army's insurgency from @ErmiasTasfaye for @EthiopiaInsight
https://t.co/p55a4Pj6ie
Preventing a relapse into war in Tigray and between Ethiopia and Eritrea is the most urgent moral, political, and legal priority. So is ending the wars in Oromia, Amhara of Ethiopia and Sudan.
What is the current state of readiness to conduct preventive diplomacy on looming wars such as those between Ethiopia and Eritrea?
None.
The stakes, however, could not be higher.
War drums between Ethiopia and Eritrea threaten to unravel the Pretoria Agreement and have the potential to create another Yemen-like situation on the African side of the Red Sea, in addition to Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia, where state integrity is gravely damaged.
Without stability on land it is hard to ensure maritime security—in other words, security at sea is determined by inland stability.
The stability of countries bordering the Red Sea—on both African and Arabian sides—is crucial for maintaining maritime security in one of the world's most vital waterways.
For people of the Horn, wars in Sudan, Ethiopia, and broader Africa have recorded unprecedented fatalities since the end of the Cold War, and recently since the war on Tigray began, active state-based conflicts have sharply surged and inflicted economic losses exceeding half a trillion dollars for the Horn of Africa alone, and well over a quarter trillion in Sudan.
With 123 million displaced people globally—45 million from Africa (37% of the total)—and a 6% annual increase, refugee flows and displacement cannot be addressed without tackling root causes: conflict, atrocities, and failed transitions.
Looking ahead, African elections in 2026 and 2027—affecting nearly half a billion people—carry enormous risks. Countries including Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda may experience democratic transitions or increased violence.
Access to minerals and large markets and countering terrorism requires stable states.
The need for preventive diplomacy has never been more urgent ‼️
#Ethiopia: Muslim students in #Axum report missing online national exam registration, blame schools for barring them over hijab
Muslim grade 12 students in Axum, #Tigray Region, reported that they were unable to meet the deadline for the national exam's online registration today, January 10, citing a requirement by schools to remove their hijabs for enrollment. The students alleged that they were barred from completing their registration unless they removed the hijab, a demand they say contradicts their religious beliefs.
Speaking anonymously to Addis Standard, one student stated, “We cannot remove our hijabs to register for the national exam, as our religion forbids it. We would rather forgo our education than violate our religious obligation.” A teacher from Axum confirmed that in-person registration for regular students ended last week but noted that online registration officially closed at 4:00 p.m. today, with a separate deadline for extension students.
https://t.co/yNgEH2IAD4
I had the distinct honour of living next door to Obbo Bulcha Demeksa for a decade. More than his decorated public life, Obbo Bulcha was a selfless source of wisdom, inspiration, and friendship.
During the turbulence of the political landscape in the wake of the 2014-2018 #OromoProtest, he became one of the few people I often sought to hear from and understand what was happening.
His guidance, resilience, and unwavering dedication to his principles as a social justice warrior left an indelible mark on all who had the privilege of knowing him and learning from him, including me.
But beyond that, Obbo Bulcha taught me one of life’s greatest lessons: to never despair, even in the darkest of times.
My deepest condolences to his widow Helen and the entire family.
May you rest in eternal peace, Obbo Bulcha! You belong to the ages! 🕊️❤️
Sagni Nagasa, the former commander of the OLA’s Central region until his breakaway in May 2024, has officially “reached an agreement” with the government. Choosing this path instead of forming another faction to fight against his comrades deserves recognition. However, while this might be perceived as a setback for the OLA, it should not be overstated as a major development capable of bringing the civil war in Oromia to an end.
Past experiences show that such agreements have had little lasting impact on the insurgency.
In 2018, Daud Ibssa, Chairman of the OLF, repatriated approximately 1,300 soldiers from Eritrea and handed them over to the government. However, most of these soldiers abandoned government camps and joined the nascent insurgency led by Marro Dirriba in Western Oromia, strengthening the group. Similarly, in 2019, eorking with members of Gada Council, we were able to bring home nearly half the active soldiers at the time, including Marro’s deputy, Diinara (Hunde Dheressa). Unfortunately it achieved only a fleeting success. The OLA grew stronger in the following months, expanding recruitment and its area of operations. Again, in 2021, Golicha Dhenge, head of the Southern Command, surrendered to the government. Yet, the insurgency in the South not only persisted but expanded its operations further into Arsi and Bale zones..
Why did these agreements and surrenders fail to weaken the insurgency? There are a number of reasons.
Firstly, the government has not tackled the political grievances that initially fueled the insurgency. Instead, repression, mass incarceration, and extrajudicial killings have escalated, driving more youth to join the insurgency rather than persuading armed fighters to disarm.
Second, the government has repeatedly failed to honor its commitments made during negotiations. Disarmed fighters were subjected to verbal and physical abuse in encampments, pushing many to escape and return to the insurgency. Those who remained were left without resources for reintegration. Senior commanders faced even worse fates: Dinaras was killed in Bishoftu months after returning, and Golicha Dhenge was beaten when he visited his family in Borana. Such actions have deepened mistrust, negating any potential benefits from these surrenders.
Given this history, there is little to suggest that yesterday’s ‘agreement’ with Sagni Nagasa will lead to a different outcome. While the government may leverage such defections for propaganda, it should not deceive itself into believing that these actions can end the conflict. Splinter commanders and factions switching sides may yield temporary tactical gains, but their impact on the overall insurgency is likely minimal given the state’s diminishing control over the means of violence and the country’s worsening economic conditions.
Moreover, encouraging or exacerbating splinters within insurgency groups can be counterproductive. While governments might view splintering as a strategy to weaken rebels, it often has the opposite effect. Fractured insurgencies complicate peace processes and prolong conflicts. New factions emerge with their own demands, making it harder to reach comprehensive agreements or implement them effectively. Furthermore, exaggerating defections or portraying them as agreements with entire movements undermines trust. This dynamic was evident after the collapse of the Tanzania talks, which eroded faith in negotiations and made future dialogue more difficult to convene. Encouraging splintering also creates incentives for disillusioned factions to form competing groups, perpetuating cycles of violence.
The government must recognize that sustainable peace in Oromia and other regions, particularly the Amhara , requires addressing the root causes of these conflicts and pursuing a negotiated, comprehensive political settlement. There are no shortcuts to ending these insurgencies and achieving lasting stability.
Two years on from the signing of the #Pretoria Agreement between the federal government and #Tigray region that ended one of 21st century’s most devastating wars, only a fragile peace holds and progress has been slow.
Meanwhile, conflicts in the #Amhara and #Oromia regions continue to churn.
What’s next for #Ethiopia? And how should an incoming #US administration and the new U.S. congress think about priorities for Ethiopia in 2025 to help ensure lasting peace?
You can register to join the panel at 3:30 PM CET (5:30 PM EAT)
https://t.co/bGsX2Zfiau
Minister @SeanFlemingTD today gave the opening address at the @FrontLineHRD Dublin Platform and met with EU Special Representative for human rights @OlofBSkoog.
The Front Line Defenders Platform brings together over 100 human rights defenders from all over the world.
At @FrontLineHRD#dublinplatform, with UN Special Rapporteur on HRDs Mary Lawlor & EU Special Representative for human rights Olof Skoog.
Support to human rights defenders is even more crucial today as they are on the frontlines of attacks against the whole #HumanRights system.
#News_Alert: Taye Atske-Selassie appointed President, replacing Sahle-Work Zewde
Ambassador Taye Atske Selassie has been appointed as Ethiopia's new president, succeeding Sahle-Work Zewde. His appointment was confirmed during a joint session of the House of People's Representatives (HoPR) and the House of Federation (HoF) held today.
Ambassador Taye has served as the Minister of Foreign Affairs since February 8, 2024. He has also held multiple ambassadorial roles at the United Nations.
Baga Ayyaana Irreecha baranaa ittiin nu gahe!
🖤❤️🤍
Barri itti aanu nagaa fi waldanda'uu nuuf haa fidu!
Celebrated this year’s Irreecha at #Hora_Finfinnee surrounded by the unreserved love and sisterhood extended by the queen of athletics, Derartu Tulu, remembering the stories of our childhood and of course devouring Yeshiyo’s (her mom’s) endless blessings and infectious laughter!
🖤❤️🤍
Last week, staff at the our Embassy in Addis, our office in Tigray, as well as colleagues back home in Ireland, celebrated the Ethiopian New Year. As festivities come to an end, we want to take this opportunity to wish all Ethiopians a very happy 2017! 🌼
I am devastated to learn that my ex-colleague, comrade, and friend whom I looked up to as my elder brother (a namesake of his whom I lost when I was 9) has just passed away.
I and him had a lot of differences about Ethiopia’s politics. But always had a mutual respect and tolerance for our views and affection for one another throughout the time we worked together. We hated each other’s politics with passion, but we kept our affection for one another to the very end.
Dereje (Dere as we called him) was an honourable man of integrity both intellectually and ethically. He was a man of impeccable erudition. He read voraciously and always in between the lines. He was always partisan to the poor, the insulted and the humiliated of any society. He spoke and wrote with clarity that is uncommon to his rather bombastic generation. (His handwriting is as remarkably memorable as elegant and legible.)
His love of country (about which we disagree) and his partisanship to the poor were the pillars of his life-and world-view. Always!
Dere was a brother and a teacher to me. He always knew the books I need to read next. He was our go to person for some obscure event, especially in the left’s past.
He will be sorely missed. I had missed him for many years already.
Life hasn’t been kind to him. I Hope heaven will be.
Condolences to his family, friends, colleagues, and students!!!
Farewell thee well, Brother. And rest in peace!
I’m still not over this beautiful moment of sisterhood and sportsmanship! You can just feel the love shining through these ladies. Congrats Rebeca, Jordan and Simone! ✨