BaseWinner

Crunching MLB data into actionable betting information.

[BaseWinner @BaseWinner]

@awfulannouncing MLB on the radio is spectacular so many detailed and local insights by great broadcasters for so many of the teams super helpful

[VSiN @VSiNLive]

Today on A Numbers Game, @beatingthebook and @KelleyBydlon were joined by @BaseWinner to break down the World Series.

He gave out an intriguing long shot World Series MVP bet and said why you should consider it, and discussed what would happen IF the Rays beat the Brewers tonight in Game 4.

For more, check out: https://t.co/RRn1eSfcwI

[VSiN @VSiNLive]

Join A Numbers Game with @BeatingTheBook & @kelleybydlon, live from 10AM– 1PM ET!

Joining the show: @joe_sheehan | @jhahn4 | @whale_capper | @BaseWinner | @PeteFiutak

📺 https://t.co/zxEV4cUxYL
🔊https://t.co/Or3z49D9EA & @SIRIUSXM Ch.189

[BaseWinner @BaseWinner]

Have I gone a little overboard with the World Series analysis? Probably. 😂

Park-adjusted HRs, ISO rankings, regression models, Monte Carlo simulations...

Ridiculous? Maybe. But hey, IT'S THE WORLD SERIES! ⚾

3 final Basewinner value plays:

🍺 MIL Series ML -165 (DK)
⚾ Over 9.5 Series HR -150 (Caesars)
💣 Victor Mesa Jr. 2+ HR +400 (Heritage)
If you appreciate this level of baseball analytics obsession, give me a follow!
Much love…BW

https://t.co/pA9L8RxpLG

[BaseWinner @BaseWinner]

@brcord @ericbiggio @WilliamHillUS @CaesarsSports @KelleyBydlon @beatingthebook @sporer @MitchMossRadio @paulyhoward @guyincornfields @cfargis That would be a cool prop - I'm thinking more like 25-1. These props are great @ericbiggio and the pricing is good. My calcs say over 10.5 most combined runs in any game -130 and over 9.5 HRs in series -110

[VSiN @VSiNLive]

Join A Numbers Game with @BeatingTheBook & @kelleybydlon, live from 10AM– 1PM ET!

On today's show: @joe_sheehan | @jhahn4 | @whale_capper | @BaseWinner | @PeteFiutak

📺https://t.co/zxEV4cUxYL
🔊https://t.co/Or3z49D9EA & @SIRIUSXM Ch.189

[BaseWinner @BaseWinner]

Looks like a cold night in Cleveland. 🥶⚾
Small sample size, but I thought this was interesting. In similar conditions at Progressive Field since 2022, scoring and HR production have been down, while walks have actually increased.
#MLB #Guardians #Rays #Basewinner

[VSiN @VSiNLive]

Join A Numbers Game with @BeatingTheBook & @kelleybydlon, live from 10AM– 1PM ET!

On today's show: @PaulCarr | @BaseWinner | @chrisfallica | @FezzikSports

📺https://t.co/zxEV4cUxYL
🔊https://t.co/Or3z49D9EA & @SIRIUSXM Ch.189

[Inside Edge @IE_MLB]

Batters are 7-for-69 with 32 Ks against Cade Smith in the Postseason.

Batters are 1-for-10 with 6 Ks against him with runners in scoring position.

#GuardsBall | #Postseason

[BaseWinner @BaseWinner]

@JoeyMistretta_ This was a bizarre strategy move to me??? the CLE team must have better metrics than actual 50% game K rate today?? Maybe I’m blinded by the Williams 10+ K bet at +839 that just slipped away

[Joey Mistretta @JoeyMistretta_]

Gavin Williams was removed at 70 pitches. Lauren Shehadi reported she asked the Guardians' dugout if he's alright. Answer was yes. Cleveland removing him was reportedly a strategic move as opposed to any kind of injury concern.

[BaseWinner @BaseWinner]

@CScottybooks17 Thanks man glad you enjoy it! I think MLB will play next season based on some of the movement I've seen in the front offices. If not - NBA and Tennis I model. If no bases, may advance it and make that public.

[BaseWinner @BaseWinner]

🛒⚾ Some pretty interesting data from the BWDB on how teams hit in what I call "Costco Parks" (closed-roof/dome stadiums).

So interesting, in fact, that I thought it was worth digging into and writing about, especially with the LCS underway.

Not exactly great for our LAD and CLE positions, but another interesting piece of the handicapping puzzle!

https://t.co/VF2koaqiMD

#Dodgers #Guardians #MLBPlayoffs #Basewinner

[VSiN @VSiNLive]

Join A Numbers Game with @BeatingTheBook & @kelleybydlon, live from 10AM– 1PM ET!

🏈Monday Night Football Recap
⚾️MLB Championship Series Update
🏈Survivor Week 6 Considerations
🏈NFL Power Rankings
🏀NBA Awards Markets

Joining the show: @joe_sheehan | @whale_capper | @BaseWinner | @Jeff_Erickson

📺https://t.co/NVDOIr0bm3
🔊https://t.co/aWmLqvesOm & @SIRIUSXM Ch.189

[BaseWinner @BaseWinner]

@MFAlvarez1975 @beatingthebook @andrewssports Yammo be there!!

[VSiN @VSiNLive]

Join A Numbers Game with @BeatingTheBook & @kelleybydlon, live from 10AM– 1PM ET!

🏈Monday Night Football Recap
🏈NFL Power Rankings
⚾️MLB Division Series Update

Joining the show: @joe_sheehan | @jhahn4 | @whale_capper | @BaseWinner

📺https://t.co/NVDOIr0bm3
🔊https://t.co/aWmLqvesOm & @SIRIUSXM Ch.189

[BaseWinner @BaseWinner]

🌅⚾ Not a fan of the Dodgers day game — nothing like the sunset in October at Chavez Ravine.
I still like LAD to win today, but this was interesting enough to keep me off the Dodgers team total.
☀️ Before 6 PM AZ time at home this year: .680 OPS in 562 PA. That would rank around 27th compared with MLB overall home numbers. 😬 Woof.
Maybe I’m making too much of it, but that’s why we have the database. 📊
📝 Note: the game counts overlap because some games had PAs on both sides of the 6 PM AZ cutoff.
#Dodgers #MLBPlayoffs

[BaseWinner @BaseWinner]

@MKaminskiMusic would love to see your Top5 walk up music list for this list🎹😀

[BaseWinner @BaseWinner]

We rebuilt our October pitching model.

bwERA+ → postseason sxIP → bullpen exposure → team RA/G → series probabilities → 100,000 postseason simulations.

Then we priced the DraftKings postseason board.

A few differences jumped out:

CLE over CWS series
BW: 64.97% / -185 fair
DK: -140
NYY over TB series
BW: 58.71% / -142 fair
DK: -120
LAD World Series
BW: 39.36% / +154 fair
DK: +200

We can even price exact LCS outcomes now.
The final probabilities look clean. Building everything behind them definitely isn't.
Full breakdown 👇
https://t.co/Xpw0qi4v1z

[BaseWinner @BaseWinner]

@DarealK4nier @VSiNLive @beatingthebook @KelleyBydlon @joe_sheehan @jhahn4 @whale_capper Maybe there is a chance and thanks for sharing that