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@RoronoaZoroShin GM Brother 🔥
GMMM ☕️ Road to 55k (and lower?)
We warned you about the current market, we remained (macro) bearish, we told you some levels must have hold...
BTC sliced straight through 65k with very little resistance, it was the level almost everyone agreed had to hold. It was the obvious support. The one that worked in February, March, April, and on multiple retests.
Now that it's broken, the natural reaction is to look at 60k and call it the next support. That's exactly why you'd be cautious with that assumption.
Markets rarely reward consensus. If everyone is staring at 60k, expecting the bounce of the year, then either price never gets there, or it gets there and blows straight through it.
Right now, we think a move back towards 67k or a deeper flush into the high-50s is more likely than a clean hold at 60k. Once a support becomes universally accepted, sellers often use it as fuel rather than respecting it.
That's exactly what happened with 65k. A level that had repeatedly acted as a floor finally gave way, and when it did, it wasn't buyers defending it. It was sellers using all those resting bids as liquidity.
The bigger lesson is psychological. Short-term sentiment changes fast.
Two weeks ago, at 80k, people would have begged for an opportunity to buy 60k....
That's why systems matter more than feelings. Feelings follow price. Systems exist to act before your feelings catch up.
@sue_xbt Because is a shitcoin.
GM ☕️ We warned
BTC opened with the expected gap down after the weak weekend structure. No real bid into the weekly open either, which is usually not what you want to see if buyers are still in control.
78.6k gave way exactly as we warned, and now the market’s reacting to that failed support.
H4 200EMA breached as well, which weakens the short-term structure further.
If 77.5k goes with momentum, then 77k becomes the next likely unwind zone.
Bulls need to reclaim last week's lows quickly, otherwise every bounce just starts looking like redistribution rather than accumulation.
For any real upside reclaim, BTC probably needs to be back above Friday’s close by around tomorrow’s NY open. Until then, pressure stays to the downside, and the burden is on buyers to prove they still have control.
Don't chase ☕️
GM GM ☕️ It's not a trap right?... right?
BTC left the 200-day EMA on the daily after briefly breaching it, and heading into the weekend below 79k is not the kind of structure bulls want to see.
Losing it into low liquidity conditions gives bears confidence, at least short term.
Main level now is 78k. If we lose that with real impulse and a weak daily close, then 75k becomes the obvious magnet. Until then, this is still just consolidation inside a larger range, not a confirmed breakdown.
The important thing is how price reacts deeper down. Bears are getting aggressive on every red candle now, but if pullbacks stay corrective rather than impulsive, and bids keep stepping in around key levels, longs actually become more attractive the lower we go.
78.5k remains an important area to hold, previous breakdown level, and one of the last clean supports before momentum shifts harder to the downside.
Right now, no clean trend, just positioning battles.
And weekends are where weak conviction usually gets exposed.
GM ☕️ Much better session structurally.
Bitcoin got bid aggressively off the open after dipping into prior Friday demand, and the reaction was clean.
Strong bounce, good volume, daily bands held almost perfectly.
Most importantly, no breakout failure this time. We pushed back into the 200 EMA again and held around the recovery instead of immediately giving it back.
That said...
You do not want vertical continuation here. The healthier path is slow consolidation above 80k, letting the market absorb the move while dominance grinds higher again.
Fast expansion after a recovery often leads to another exhaustion move. Strong trends don’t need to panic-buy higher every candle.
The key positive is that the market reclaimed and defended the 80k-81k zone without impulsively retracing it. That’s what you want to see after recent weakness.
If bulls were weak, this entire move would already have been faded.
What we want to see coming in the week-end low vol territory:
- Hold above 80k
- Consolidate around the 200 EMA
- Avoid impulsive retracement of yesterday's recovery
- Let positioning reset instead of forcing continuation
The daily close looks solid. Now the market has to prove it can hold strength, not just create it for a few hours.
GM ☕️ alt season! (jk)
Bitcoin gave the exact reaction you’d expect from weak structure.
> Pushed into the 80.5-80.6 resistance zone, failed again, and immediately lost momentum.
If this market was truly strong, Friday should’ve closed with expansion through 81K and aggressive bidding into the weekly close. Not the case.
That keeps the downside liquidation idea alive. This still looks more like longs unwinding after an extended move than fresh positioning for a breakout. The important thing is that price is no longer reacting like a market in expansion mode. Every push up is getting sold faster.
Meanwhile, for ALTs, the rotation is obvious.
Solana and alts are carrying momentum while Bitcoin stalls. Dominance rolling over during BTC weakness is classic late-stage risk rotation behaviour.
In low liquidity weekend conditions, that usually gets exaggerated, alts become easier to squeeze while BTC grinds or underperforms.
The trap now is assuming alt strength is automatically bullish for the whole market. Sometimes it is, yes. Sometimes it’s just the final rotation before broader exhaustion. Stay aware of the context we're in.
> BTC below 80.6 = weak structure remains
> Alt strength while BTC lags = rotation phase active
> Weekend liquidity = exaggerated moves likely
No aggressive BTC longs unless it reclaims 81K with force.
Still feels more like distribution than breakout.
GM ☕️ We told you not to mistake this as strength...
BTC trend is getting increasingly disrespected.
Back at 79k now, straight through what should have been a constructive consolidation zone.
The 4H 50 EMA is technically still holding (yellow), but this is not how bullish pullbacks usually look.
Strong trends tend to retrace slowly, absorb supply, then continue. This was fast, reactive, and impulsive to the downside, more unwind than accumulation.
Buyers haven’t really shown conviction yet, if anything they went quiet the moment momentum disappeared.
80.6K is the key level now. Any weak reclaim into there that fails is likely just setting up continuation lower.
And with the structure weakening like this, 78.5K starts looking more probable than a clean bounce back into highs.
> A healthy trend consolidates above support.
> A weakening trend keeps retesting support from below after losing momentum.
Right now, BTC is behaving more like the second one.
Doesn’t mean full collapse. But unless buyers reclaim control quickly, this shifts from “breakout prep” into “mean reversion after failed expansion.”
Stay safe
GM ☕️ not a breakout behaviour YET.
It’s controlled, but also hesitant.
After multiple green days, you should either see continuation with authority or clean consolidation. What you’re getting instead is weaker follow-through, especially post-NY open.
82k is the only level that matters on the upside. Until that breaks and holds, everything below is just positioning.
If it does clear, there’s air to 84.4k and then 88k; no real friction in between. But right now, there’s no demand strong enough to force that move.
80.6k is your pressure point. Lose that and late longs start feeling it. That’s where unwinds begin, not instantly, but enough to shift control.
If that goes, you’re likely testing 80K quickly, and that level has to hold. If buyers don’t step in hard there, the “accumulation” narrative breaks down.
What you're calling accumulation is only valid if it proves itself:
> Hold above 81k and compress → bullish setup
> Break 82k with acceptance → expansion
> Lose 80.6k → positioning unwind
> Lose 80k → structure starts weakening
Right now, it’s neutral-to-fragile. Not weak, but definitely not strong.
GM ☕️ Now it must hold!
BTC reached 78k by the end of the week and started May in the green, nothing out of the ordinary, common for crypto to start of the month with a great move (whatever the side).
Back in the low vol zone as the week-end started. Similarly to last week, price will most likely consolidate in this area (green area).
BTC must hold 78k to be able to breach this those and run higher towards 80k (green arrow).
Any rejection at that level (again) and we'll visit back May opens (red arrow).
Stay put and get ready, have a nice week-end!
GM ☕️ 75k area, the new support
The red path covered in yesterday's analysis prevailed.
BTC lost 77k and we've seen a continuation towards 75k, from where it bounced back: new support level.
Does it mean it was just a swift, shallow pullback before going back up? Not yet.
If BTC breaks above 78-79k, then breaking higher becomes more likely.
However, if it rejects those levels, then it's back to chopping between those two levels (75k-79k).
Get ready
GM ☕️ "Welcome to this Bitcoin conference" *proceeds to crash*
Bitcoin ran the full playbook: sell early, bait longs on the NY push, then flush everything below 77k before reclaiming.
It took liquidity, closed back above, and now it's sitting in a spot where continuation is possible... "possible".
78k is the mark. If price gets there and accepts, it's setting up a squeeze into the double top liquidity above.
If 78k rejects (again), this turns into a range with a clear ceiling and it's back to chopping or rolling over.
The key mistake here would be assuming strength just because of the reclaim. This is still reactive price action, and it needs follow-through.
If BTC loses 77k again and this whole reclaim becomes a trap, then it will actually be distributing and likely heading back toward the lows.
Acceptance above 78k → squeeze into 80k zone (green)
Rejection at 78k → range or fade (yellow)
Lose 77k → downside continuation (red)
Stay safe!
@constkogan GM Kogan 🤝
GM ☕️ BTC BTC BTC... again with a false breakout
Swept Thursday’s high twice and couldn’t hold it, closing the week back below the inside week high (~79.3k).
Liquidity above got tapped, no continuation, and now compressing lower. That shifts the short-term expectation to mean reversion.
Can it still break higher this week? Yes, but it needs to reclaim and hold 79k. Without that, any push above 80k off an early-week drive looks like a sell.
Dollar spiked to ~99.3, even if questionable, paired with strength on the open and oil pushing higher, is not a clean risk-on backdrop. It’s early, but it leans toward pressure building rather than easing.
BTC failed at highs → short-term mean reversion bias
Dollar + oil firm → mild risk-off undertone
Do not assume continuation from here...
@RoronoaZoroShin GM Brother 🔥
Late GM ☕️ BTC is far from doing enough...
Seems like each time Trump dodges a bullet Bitcoin gets a pump and today was no exception... well kind of.
Still didn't even reach either Thursday's or Friday's high and is flattening.
Huge week up ahead with BTC event. It will and must positively impact volume flow if we want to see a sustained local rally + strength to 80k and above.
Right now, would make no sense to enter a position, short or long alike. Price sits at a "no direction" zone which would effectively make you gamble.
Sit on your hands, go touch some grass, come back later today and be prepared for next week!
GM ☕️ crypto compressing, low vol, Bitcoin looks heavy
Failure to take Thursday’s high is the key tell.
After a run like this, that’s where continuation should be obvious. Instead, you’re stalling right under highs with crowded positioning. That’s absorption at best, distribution at worst. If this was clean, you’d already be pressing into 80k. 14 EMA new local resistance???
Weekend is the filter. If this is just flow rotating into equities and not a real loss of momentum, BTC should reclaim initiative quickly, especially with a BTC-focused event ahead on Monday. If it stays flat or drifts lower into the conference, that’s weak.
The positioning makes this worse. You’ve got longs built at highs with no follow-through. That setup doesn’t tolerate indecision for long, it either squeezes fast or unwinds; if it compresses, you know what to expect.
Strength wise, BTC is still holding up better than alts, but that’s the only bullish argument left.
If that continues:
> BTC stable or grinding up while alts lag, then a late push toward 80k into or during the conference is still on the table.
If that flips:
> alts start catching bids while BTC stalls, you’re looking at distribution into an event. That’s the trap most people walk into.
No breakout yet. Weak structure at highs. Event ahead.
Watch behaviour, and touch grass.
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