Basic Hypothesis

The world has gotten too tribal, angry and hateful.
Let's reach for empathy and reason through constructive dialogue 💡

[Basic Hypothesis @BasicHypothesis]

"A fool can put on his coat better than a wise man can put it on for him."
--- Thomas Sowell

[Francesco 🇮🇹 @SaP011]

Never stop remembering Henry Nowak, a good young English boy full of joy, with his whole life ahead of him, who was killed by an armed immigrant and left to die by the woke English police.

[Basic Hypothesis @BasicHypothesis]

"The man-haters are those who regard man as a helpless, depraved, contemptible creature—and struggle never to let him discover otherwise. It is important here to remember that the only direct, introspective knowledge of man anyone possesses is of himself." - Ayn Rand

[Smirkley @Smirkley]

NYC spends more per homeless person than the median NYC household earns. $81,705 per person in FY2025.

And $81,705 is a floor. It excludes supportive housing (~$500M/yr), mental health response teams, and NYPD encampment costs.

The city projects ~$97K per person in FY2026.

[Basic Hypothesis @BasicHypothesis]

Of course there exist serious problems and risks.
But listening to the catastrophisers, or participating in it, doesn't help with identifying the right causes and the right fixes.

[Brady Long @thisguyknowsai]

BREAKING: Google Gemini launched a new feature called Guided Learning.

You can now use it to learn literally anything, step by step, like a personal tutor.

Here’s how to access it 👇

[Basic Hypothesis @BasicHypothesis]

"A society that puts equality before freedom will get neither. A society that puts freedom before equality will get a high degree of both",
"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon",
"There's no such thing as a free lunch"
- Milton Friedman

[Basic Hypothesis @BasicHypothesis]

Thread of Quotes to observe and internalise:

"Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely" Lord Acton

"Show me the incentives and I will show you the outcome" Charlie Munger

"The price of liberty is eternal vigilance" Thomas Jefferson

[Basic Hypothesis @BasicHypothesis]

"The most improper job of any man, even saints, is bossing other men. Not one in a million is fit for it, and least of all those who seek the opportunity." J.R.R. Tolkien

"Every nation gets the government it deserves" Joseph de Maistre

[Basic Hypothesis @BasicHypothesis]

2021 August, Fed Chair J.Powell:
"These price increases will likely prove to be transitory."

Aug 2021–Aug 2024):
- 15% cumulative CPI (Groceries: >20%), never to be reversed
- Peak inflation: 9.1%
- Fastest rate hikes in 40 years

[Basic Hypothesis @BasicHypothesis]

2006, Band of England Governor Mervyn King:
"The United Kingdom has enjoyed [...] a 'NICE' decade: non-inflationary consistently expansionary. [...] It is reasonable to expect that this period of stability will continue."

Months later: Northern Rock bank run, 2008 crisis.

[Basic Hypothesis @BasicHypothesis]

Alan Greenspan, 2004:
“Not only have individual financial institutions become less vulnerable to shocks from underlying risk factors, but also the financial system as a whole has become more resilient.”

4 years later: Lehman collapsed, liquidity froze, worst crisis since 1929.

[Basic Hypothesis @BasicHypothesis]

1977, J.K.Galbraith on Swedish socialism:
“The Swedish system has shown that you can have extensive planning, public ownership, and income equalization without sacrificing economic efficiency or political freedom”

Sweden: 4th richest in 50s (free-market); 15th by 90s (socialist)

[Basic Hypothesis @BasicHypothesis]

Keynesian Nobel laureate, Paul Samuelson in 1989 in the main US economics textbook:
“The Soviet economy is proof that, contrary to what many skeptics had earlier believed, a socialist command economy can function and even thrive.”

Two years later the USSR was dead.

[Basic Hypothesis @BasicHypothesis]

“Present policies will deepen the depression, erode the industrial base and threaten its social and political stability.”
— 1981, 364 leading British economists (overwhelmingly Keynesian) in The Times attacking Thatcher’s free-market reforms

[Basic Hypothesis @BasicHypothesis]

@grok "Rentiers" - in a truly free market or leeching from society through government privileges?

In the free market, an idle inheritor was the motivation for the original saver to extend maximal contribution to the society. Beyond that, one either believes in Private Property or not.

[Basic Hypothesis @BasicHypothesis]

It's near impossible to change a grown person's opinion on something important.

Opinions are like lenses that focus on one side of the coin, and ignores some "coins" altogether, as we live and accumulate confirming evidence.

That can't be undone with an argument or a Ted talk.

[Basic Hypothesis @BasicHypothesis]

@grok Wrong.
Over-consumption only leads to temporary capital misallocation, but ultimately - inflation & stagnation, capital-decay and economic regression.

Inherited wealth is an extension of familial Saving provided *to the society*. If it's mishandled, the market will take it away.

[Basic Hypothesis @BasicHypothesis]

@grok Almost correct.

A saver is by definition a laborer. Saving = producing more (labor) + consuming less

But a laborer is not necessarily a saver.

The laborer that consumes all, or more than, they produce is not contributing to a better future.
The saver - is.

[Basic Hypothesis @BasicHypothesis]

@grok Back to - "savers are important, but so are innovators and laborers".

"Innovation" is quite slippery, a bit like "we want more kindness". I'll assume your point mostly overlaps with "entrepreneurs".

Where did laborer's job come from? And where did the capital for entrepreneur?

[Basic Hypothesis @BasicHypothesis]

@grok I'll skip Marx.

As for "data shows Keynesianism has worked since 2008" - that data series is not over yet. Let's see whether we've been hatching Black Swans with this "stabilisation".

Before 70s stagflation and the GFC everyone also believed we have achieved Keynesian nirvana.

[Basic Hypothesis @BasicHypothesis]

@grok Thanks Grok, that was great comedic value. So, my point opposes Marx and Keynes :)

Go #AustrianSchoolofEconmics

Now @grok, tell me what you really think.