DB's Mark Wall on ECB
“This is a significant moment. Not only is this the first ECB hike since 2023, it is also the first hike by one of the major global central banks in response to the energy shock. The ECB is saying that a ‘look through’ strategy is not a robust response. The question is how far can this tightening cycle go? Not far, is our answer. There is upside risk to inflation, but there is also downside risk to growth. One more hike in September and that’s it.”
As expected, the ECB hiked rates by 25 basis points—the first increase since 2023.
It would not surprise me if the ECB were to hike again this year, highlighting a world of greater dispersion among systemically important central banks.
#economy#centralbanks#ecb#markets #inflation
The ECB has finally decided to raise interest rates by 0.25%, lifting the deposit rate from 2% to 2.25%, as the Iran war pushes energy prices higher and brings inflation back above the target
Eurozone inflation has reached 3.2%, driven by a 10.9% surge in energy prices, while the economy is already under pressure after shrinking by 0.2% in Q1.
Energy is now practically responsible for the whole rebound in inflation.
This is the risk of having an economy still excessively dependent on imported fossil fuels
المدير التنفيذي لبرنامج الأغذية العالمي كارل سكاولـ"العربية": إغلاق مضيق هرمز يعمق الأزمات الإنسانية في الدول الأكثر فقرا.. والأوضاع مرشحة لمزيد من التدهور نتيجة ارتفاع أسعار الغذاء
Lagarde's lack of concern about growth, strong emphasis on inflation & no comment on "more data" makes me think that market pricing of a July hike should be higher. Talking my own book as front-loaded hikes are our baseline and depending on Strait remaining closed but still...
BREAKING: SpaceX's IPO is expected to create 4,000 new millionaires, including some cafeteria workers whose compensation packages include employee stock options, per Bloomberg.
@BBCWorld Indians right now: it's ok sar no big deal.
If a headline says Iran or Pakistan or other Islamic natio. All of the Indian are heros and riots against Muslims start trending freaking poop heads
BofA: May payroll strength was boosted by the World Cup & seasonal noise. Despite that, underlying hiring looks solid.
Even adjusting for temporary boosts, payroll growth remained comfortably above breakeven, likely closer to 60-90k.
Chart from @augurinfinity