Rational ME

Thoughts on Lebanon, international affairs,, and global economy

[Rational ME @BeainoSage]

Great knowledge is admirable. No knowledge is forgivable. A little knowledge is dangerous.

[Rational ME @BeainoSage]

@ME_Observer_ @WarMonitors I can probably offer up a serious answer to you but I think you’re too fucking retarded to get it.

[Rational ME @BeainoSage]

@TheStalwart War doesn’t matter

[Rational ME @BeainoSage]

The administration initially went to lengths to own the decision to go to war and dismiss suggestions that Israel forced their hand. Now they’re leaking materials to put the blame on their PM.

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷VP Vance told Netanyahu in a "difficult" call on Monday that several of Netanyahu's predictions about the war had proved far too optimistic, like the prospects of a popular uprising to topple the regime. @MarcACaputo & I write for @axios https://t.co/VttiWMW0PG

[Emile Hokayem (@emile-hokayem.bsky.social) @emile_hokayem]

There is very little in this piece that demonstrates that Hezbollah has rebuilt significantly since late 2024. Its strategic arsenal was meant to punish and deter and it failed to so then and now. Israel has the military strength and advantage.

Can Hezbollah fighters perform well on the ground against the Israelis? Yes but at high cost and without strategic effect.

Hezbollah failed in every possible way. It misread its enemy, it misunderstood what it was facing, it connected Lebanon to Gaza without going up the escalation ladder, it lost its leadership and much of its security cadre but the Iranians declined to intervene, it lost its strategic depth and supply route (Syria), it went against the Lebanese consensus.

[Peter Harling @PeterHarling]

Lebanon is in a real catch-22.

Hizbollah is too weak to deter Israel, protect its community, force a negotiated settlement, or rethink its own tactics...

Yet strong enough to deter the Lebanese army from taking over, while egging on Israel and inviting ever more escalation.

[Rational ME @BeainoSage]

@academic_la Dude, no. You can perhaps explain the underlying causes of radical and sadistic violence, which is what October 7, without supporting said actions.

[Rational ME @BeainoSage]

More evidence this is going to be a long war. You don’t convene the CEOs of every major US defense contractor, announce industrial production ramp-ups, and schedule a follow-up meeting in two months because you’re planning a short operation.

[Rational ME @BeainoSage]

This is also carries the risk of drawing in Turkey to the conflict, who has not tolerated any separatist Kurdish movement within its borders, in Iraq , and in Syria - and hence likely not in Iran. Turkey is a NATO member but has also formed closer ties with Russia.

[Rational ME @BeainoSage]

The backing of Kurdish militias is a US attempt to achieve regime change without putting boots on the ground.

This is the Afghanistan model all over again, where US provides air power to support a ground presence of local militants against the regime.

[Rational ME @BeainoSage]

It also suggests that this operation has been in the works for some time, as the speed of which Kurdish forces are being mobilized suggests the flow of weapons had started well in advance.

[Rational ME @BeainoSage]

It didn’t work in Afghanistan, where proxy militias were pushed beyond their capabilities to serve objectives beyond their own. It is unlikely to be sufficient in Iran - the Kurds are only interested in autonomy within their respective borders, while US seeks whole regime change.

[Rational ME @BeainoSage]

@AzarsTweets Good stuff Mike. More generally, I think liquidating gold reserves without being tied to a broader restructuring or resolution framework or IMF plan is only kicking the can down the road and further delaying any prospect of a recovery of the banking system.

[Rational ME @BeainoSage]

@MattWalshBlog Matt Walsh - Proud Nazi

[Rational ME @BeainoSage]

@MattWalshBlog Hi, you’re an idiot

[Rational ME @BeainoSage]

@smiddendorp22 @jakescottMD You are an actual idiot, Steven.

[Rational ME @BeainoSage]

@NFLosophy Hit him in the hands + Dak has hit those plenty of times that he’s known for them. Why are you surprised?

[Rational ME @BeainoSage]

At a $47M AAV, Micah’s contract with the Packers would represent 16.8% of the base salary cap - by far the largest cap % for an edge rusher in recent memory, surpassing even the inflated value of Myles Garrett and TJ Watt’s recently signed contracts.

[Rational ME @BeainoSage]

I don’t believe it’s possible to defend Trump’s second term in an intellectually honest way. It’s far beyond the left vs. right, Democrat vs. Republican, or any policy divide. Those who defend Trump simply reveal their own character (or lack thereof).

[Rational ME @BeainoSage]

@liablanco4 @HalaJaber By that logic, even if Israel fully withdrew from every border position tomorrow, Hezbollah could still insist on keeping its weapons forever under the pretext of deterrence against a potential colonization of the South.

[Rational ME @BeainoSage]

@liablanco4 @HalaJaber There is no credible evidence that Israel is pursuing colonization of southern Lebanon, despite Hezbollah’s propaganda. But even if we accept that premise, does it justify having an armed, foreign funded militia outside state control, with all the consequences that entails?