BullBearBalance

Engineer, Passionate Investor, Crazy about Valuation and Options

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Our most frequently asked question right now:

"If oil prices are above $100/barrel and the Iran War isn't over, why are stocks at record highs?"

The answer to this question is simple.

The AI Revolution has simply become so large, that investors are viewing everything else as "noise."

Over the last few months, as large cap technology stocks traded flat then sharply lower amid the Iran War, the AI narrative only grew.

The Magnificent 7 companies are set to invest over $600 BILLION in AI this year alone.

And, as broader markets swept tech giants like Nvidia and Alphabet lower, these stocks reached their cheapest Forward P/E levels since 2019.

At the March 30th bottom, the S&P 500 Information Technology index was trading at just a 4% Forward P/E premium to the S&P 500, the lowest since January 2019.

Tech stocks became cheaper than the average S&P 500 stock for the first time since 2017.

Nvidia, for example, is now trading at just a ~26x Forward P/E multiple, even as it is back at record highs. Walmart? 43x. Costco? 46x.

The reality is that many large cap technology stocks are merely getting cheaper as they go up. And when they go down, they become remarkably cheap.

We are in the biggest technological revolution in modern history, and even $100 oil, a 4.40% 10Y Yield, and rate cuts priced out until 2027 are unable to derail the train.

Asset owners will continue to win.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

This is the most profitable market in history.

Stocks are now extending gains to a new high of the day, the S&P 500 up +1.5%.

Take a minute to read steps #1 through #8 in our tariff playbook.

There will be more to come.

Systematic investing is winning.

[ₕₐₘₚₜₒₙ @hamptonism]

These are the quants you’re competing against in China.

Good luck.

[Qualtrim @qualtrim]

These management teams can’t stop buying back stock…

Here are 6 buyback machines you have to watch.

1. PayPal - $PYPL

Total shares repurchases (5Y) = $22.8 billion

[Mark Tilbury @marktilbury]

Five rules you need to follow to become the first millionaire in your family:

1. Your investments should always eat before you do.

2. Use your credit card to improve your credit score and earn rewards.

3. Track all expenses to avoid money leaking through the cracks.

4. Never buy the cheapest option. Buy the best for long term value.

5. Invest in people the way you wish someone had invested in you.

[Mark Tilbury @marktilbury]

I'm a millionaire.

It’s not your fault you aren’t rich yet.

Read that again.

If you’re ambitious but still stuck, this is for you.

You’re not broken. The game was rigged long before you started playing.

The system doesn’t want you to escape.

It needs you tired, confused and “grateful” for a safe little life. Let me show you how it’s been conditioning you from day one:

1. School: training you to be a worker

The world needs obedient workers, so school builds you into one.

You’re taught to sit still, follow instructions, ask for permission, and be rewarded for compliance, not creativity.

The curriculum hasn’t been properly updated in decades. Nobody teaches you how money really works. Nobody teaches you how to think for yourself, start a business, or become financially free.

Instead, they funnel you down the same path as everyone else.
And if you take the same path as everyone else, you get the same results as everyone else.

2. Parents: passing down the programming

As a kid, you believe what your parents say by default. You have no way of fact-checking any of it.

Most parents mean well. They love you. But they were programmed by the same system, so the brainwashing just continues at home.

I remember every time I asked about money, I was shut down. That’s not an accident.

The ultra rich know that if ordinary people start talking about money openly, they’ll eventually figure out how to get more of it. More for you means less control for them.

So they keep you polite, quiet, and in the dark.

3. Social media: stealing your future

Now add social media into the mix.

The platforms are owned and controlled by the richest people in the world. Their business model is simple: capture your attention and never give it back.

Attention is the new currency. If you’re giving all of yours to them, you’re leaving none for your own goals.

Imagine how many future millionaires are being robbed of their potential because they’re glued to their phones instead of taking action. Years sacrificed to scrolling.

So how do you fight back?

The fact you’re reading this tells me something important:
The system hasn’t killed your ambition.

You’re one of the rare ones who went through all that conditioning and still came out the other side with a spark.

Now you have to use it.

- Start the side hustle you’ve been thinking about.
- Ask for the promotion you know you deserve.
- Learn a real money skill.
- Launch the business that’s been living in your notes app for a year.

You’ll make mistakes. Everyone does.
But as long as you keep moving, you can’t stay stuck.

And remember this:

Never lose your ambition.
It’s the one thing they can’t take from you.

If you enjoyed this post, follow me @marktilbury and repost this it to share it with a friend.

[Mark Tilbury @marktilbury]

I'm a millionaire.

If I wanted to invest from scratch again with $100, I'd do this:

[Adam Khoo @adamkhootrader]

Soon, there will only best 7 stocks left 😂

[Adam Khoo @adamkhootrader]

If companies report less frequently, that is actually very beneficial to the companies because they will be more focused on making longer term strategic decisions instead of focusing on beating short term expectations every 3 months.

It may also lead to LESS stock price volatility. However, because of less volatility , we as value investors may see less panic selling during missed earnings reports and less opportunities to buy at undervalued levels.

So, there are pros and cons to this development

[Adam Khoo @adamkhootrader]

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has 10 bear markets over the next 70 years . These started in 1956, 1961, 1966, 1968, 1973, 1980, 1987, 2000, 2008, 2020

This is an average of 1 bear market every 7 years.

However, recently, we have had a cluster of bear markets together

The S&P 500 went into a bear market in 2020 and 2022 and…
the Nasdaq went into a bear market in 2020, 2022 and 2025

Despite that, I managed to grow my portfolio my over 250% by holding a diversified portfolio of the highest quality stocks

The good news is that I think the next bear market is 6 to 7 years away , 2031 or 2032 based on the average frequency of historical occurrences

[Adam Khoo @adamkhootrader]

Another reason why I think Analysts target pricing is completely rubbish.

When price goes down, they lower their target price. When price goes up, they raise their target price. Any idiot can do that.

As an investor, my investment decisions are based on Intrinsic value, which is calculated by discounted the future free cash flow or net income of the underlying business. This gives you an objective measure of whether a stock is expensive or cheap.

I complete ignore ANALyst's upgrades/downgrades and target pricing which is often a lagging indicator based on what prices have already done. Zero predictive value of the future of the stock's price.

[Barchart @Barchart]

$7.4 Trillion is now sitting in Money Market Funds, a new a all-time high 🚨🚨🚨

[Adam Khoo @adamkhootrader]

Did you realise that EVERY new bull market is hated by the majority of institutional investors and hedge funds?

This is why these experts try so hard to convince others to be bearish when they speak to the media.

2025 is no different! The majority of hedge funds have been underweight stocks and overweight cash. Short equity futures positions in April/May have been highest in a decade.

When earnings and economic data are not as bad as expected and prices rally, these hedge funds are forced to cover their shorts and chase the rally. Cash on the sidelines is like the fuel that propels the market even higher.

[Adam Khoo @adamkhootrader]

Market hardly dips before prices rebound back higher

One reason could be because fund managers are very underweight equities since they sold out in late April/ early May

Now, many are panicking to reposition themselves back into the market , buying the dip or chasing breakouts of new highs

As the market rebounds and their market exposure is low, fund managers risk getting left behind by not chasing. This should continue to fuel this rally

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

What is happening in Japan?

Japan's 40-year bond yield just hit its highest level in over 20 years.

Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba has called the situation “worse than Greece.”

All as Japan’s GDP is contracting again.

[Adam Khoo @adamkhootrader]

If you had met me at 13, you wouldn’t have bet a single cent on my future.

I was the failing kid who got kicked out of school.

Teachers called me lazy, unmotivated, even stupid.

For years, I believed I’d always be mediocre.

But deep down… I wanted more. I just didn’t know how to break out.

Then in a last-ditch effort, my dad sent me to programme where I learnt about NLP® and It blew my mind.

What I learned there changed my life forever:

👉 Success happens not by chance, but by choice.
👉 If someone can do it, so can you. It’s only a matter of mindset & strategy.

And for the first time, I stopped playing the victim.
I stopped blaming the system. I took ownership of my future.

I used NLP®️ to rewire my beliefs — from “I’m not good enough. What if I fail?” to “I can do this”.
And that one shift became the catalyst for everything:

✅ Made my first million at age 26
✅ Became a trainer & speaker — even if I was introverted & “too young”
✅ Wrote a bestselling book in just 30 days
✅ Started my YouTube channel — despite all the naysayers
✅ Invested heavily during stock crashes — when everyone screamed “sell”

My friend, if you’ve always felt like you’re destined for more… that you haven’t unlocked your full potential, know this — you have the power to change.

And NLP®️ is the tool that helps you break through your limits.

See, our inner thoughts shape our emotions, actions & outcomes.

When you master the language of the mind, you unlock a level of confidence, clarity & success you’ve never experienced before.

Want to see how it works?

👉Get my free NLP®️ Training Video here: < https://t.co/nvzpEebChD >

And if you want to take things further, I’ve got great news…

I’m doing the FINAL run of my life-transforming program, Patterns of Excellence™️, right here in Singapore this year.

This is your only chance to spend 9 immersive days with me, LIVE and in person, learning the powerful Success Code that changed my life.

Many have called this the turning point of their lives — from bankrupt to millionaire, from “nobody” to best-selling author, from depressed to waking up joyful every single day.

If you're already successful, POE helps you unlock the next high. If you're not there yet, then this is where your transformation begins.

Spots are filling FAST. Once we hit our optimal group size, doors will close forever.

🔥Early Bird Sale is on till 31 May (SG time) — with huge savings for fast action takers.

So if you’re serious about creating the life you know you’re meant to live…

👉Get my free NLP®️ Training Video here and learn more about POE: < https://t.co/nvzpEebChD >

I’d love to see you in person and guide you to your breakthrough.

Remember — we only live once, so live your best life.

Let’s make this your turning point to greatness.

[Adam Khoo @adamkhootrader]

At the 2025 Berkshire annual meeting, Buffett said that Tim Cook has made more money for Berkshire $BRKA than he ever did.

Indeed, Buffett's $11.9 billion Apple $AAPL investment has made more money for Berkshire Hathaway $BRKA than any other investments he has made since acquiring $BRKA in 1965.

This statement really blew my mind!

Buffett first bought $AAPL in 2016, 36 years after its IPO, when it was already one of the largest stocks in the market.

He bought $AAPL at a time when it significantly undervalued, because of fears that iPhone was losing market share to Google Pixel, Samsung, Huawei etc...

Since then, Buffett's investment in $AAPL has made $BRK approximately US$143 billion in gains (capital gains realised + unrealised + dividends). This is a gain of 12X gain.

What are the lessons to be learnt?
1) You do not have to buy small speculative stocks to make huge gains. You can make huge gains investing in established mega cap stocks, if you buy them at undervalued prices (which happens from time to time during times of temporary bad news).

2) Since its IPO in 1980, Apple $AAPL had already gained 260X before Buffett bought in at $26 (split adjusted price) in 2016. So, you do not have to buy a stock in its early years to make huge returns from it. A stock can have already gained 200X, and still be a great investment if the runway is long.

3) We can have many many mediocre or losing investments (like Buffett has made) but we just need 1 or 2 home runs to achieve extraordinary outperformance. The key is to hold onto great investments long enough for them to compound our portfolios.

[Adam Khoo @adamkhootrader]

My favourite quote from Berkshire annual meeting 2025

This is the 100% honest truth

“The long term trend is up but no one knows what the market will do next week or month. It’s easy to talk about but it has no value. I have never found anyone worth listening to.”-

Warren Buffett

[Mr Family Office @MrFamilyOffice]

“I’ve never wished to create a dynasty”

How Warren Buffett plans to distribute his wealth after he passes:

[Adam Khoo @adamkhootrader]

A moment of silence for the poor bastards who sold/shorted the S&amp;P 500 near the bottom after listening to the 'expert' ANALyts. They really got screwed.