Bearly Bully

The almost guy.
Tweets on instruments are my way of learning and only informational. RTs != endorsements
@YatriSays

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

The move from Pax Americana to America First is a significant civilizational development. Even if it doesn't happen, it's the first hard blow at unchecked Chinese influence.
Most concerning is the potential drop in diffusion of innovation, and in general, scientific achievements.

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

#margincall
First one. Hopefully the last one.

From 3x to margin call
😑

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

POTUS is choosing to miss his son's wedding?
This below guess of mine was wrong.

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

Memorial Day weekend coming up. Doesn't seem likely that there will be some kinetic action in West Asia situation. Maybe, there will be good news.
#stockmarkettrader

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

Memorial Day weekend coming up. Doesn't seem likely that there will be some kinetic action in West Asia situation. Maybe, there will be good news.
#stockmarkettrader

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

Lot of coiling, compressed price action in the markets.
Seemingly, the markets want to go up. West Asia uncertainty is not allowing it.
Volatility incoming.
#stockmarkettrading #nifty #dowjones #crudeoil #gold

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

Lot of coiling, compressed price action in the markets.
Seemingly, the markets want to go up. West Asia uncertainty is not allowing it.
Volatility incoming.
#stockmarkettrading #nifty #dowjones #crudeoil #gold

[Mohit @TraderMHT]

The market immediately after you sell.

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

🤔

[Mitch Presnick 柏力 @mitchpresnick]

China’s capital allocation system is colossally wasteful at the micro level, but devastatingly effective at the macro level.

It routinely overbuilds, duplicates capacity, funds weak firms, and tolerates enormous inefficiency by Western profitability and shareholder-return standards. Entire sectors can endure years of losses, redundant investment, and brutal overcompetition.

But that “waste” functions as a national-scale incubation system.

It compresses learning curves, drives down costs through overcapacity and competition, builds complete supply chains at extraordinary speed, and ensures that multiple firms survive long enough for a few globally dominant champions to emerge.

The West optimizes for efficient capital allocation and near-term returns.

China optimizes for ecosystem dominance, industrial depth, employment stability, technological catch-up, and long-term strategic positioning.

The result is that what looks irrational at the firm level can become highly rational at the system level. EVs, batteries, solar, drones, shipbuilding, telecom equipment, and increasingly AI infrastructure all reflect this pattern.

Colossally wasteful. Devastatingly effective.

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

Turkey joining the Iran War? On the side of ...
🚨
#IranWar‌ #StraitOfHomruz #NavalBlockade

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

Interesting prediction. Let's see what the future unveils

[Evan Luthra @EvanLuthra]

🚨RESEARCHERS JUST MATHEMATICALLY PROVED THAT AI LAYOFFS WILL DESTROY THE ECONOMY.. AND EVERY CEO ALREADY KNOWS IT.. BUT NONE OF THEM CAN STOP..

Two researchers from UPenn and Boston University just published a paper called "The AI Layoff Trap"..

They proved something terrifying..

Every company replacing workers with AI is also firing its own customers.. Every laid-off employee is someone who used to spend money.. When enough people lose their jobs.. Nobody can afford to buy anything.. And the companies that fired everyone go bankrupt selling products to an economy with no purchasing power..

Every CEO can see this coming.. The math is obvious.. Fire workers.. Lose customers.. Lose revenue.. Collapse..

But here's the trap..

No company can afford to stop..

If you don't automate.. Your competitor will.. They cut costs.. Undercut your prices.. Steal your market share.. And you die anyway..

So every company automates.. Knowing it's collectively suicidal.. Because the alternative is dying alone while everyone else survives..

It's a Prisoner's Dilemma.. And the researchers proved it mathematically..

The numbers are already stacking up..

Block cut nearly half its 10,000 employees this year.. CEO Jack Dorsey said AI made those roles unnecessary and that "within the next year, the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion"..

Salesforce replaced 4,000 customer support agents with AI..

Goldman Sachs deployed an AI coder that lets one senior engineer do the work of a five-person team..

Over 100,000 tech workers were laid off in 2025 alone.. AI was cited as the primary driver in more than half the cases..

80% of US workers hold jobs with tasks susceptible to AI automation..

And here's what should scare policymakers..

The researchers tested every proposed solution..

Universal Basic Income.. Doesn't fix it.. It raises living standards but doesn't change a single company's incentive to automate..

Capital income taxes.. Don't fix it.. They change profit levels but not the per-task decision to replace a human..

Worker equity and profit sharing.. Narrows the gap but can't close it..

Collective bargaining.. Can't fix it.. Because automating is a dominant strategy.. No voluntary agreement between companies is self-enforcing..

Only one thing works.. A Pigouvian automation tax.. A per-task charge that forces every company to pay for the demand it destroys when it fires a worker..

The researchers call it a "Red Queen effect".. Better AI doesn't solve the problem.. It makes it worse.. Because every company sees a bigger market share gain from automating faster than rivals.. But at the end.. Everyone automates equally.. The gains cancel out.. And the only thing left is more destroyed demand..

The paper's conclusion is devastating..

This isn't a transfer from workers to company owners.. Both sides lose.. Workers lose their income.. Companies lose their customers.. It's a deadweight loss that harms everyone..

And no market force can break the cycle..

The AI layoff trap isn't a prediction.. It's already happening.. And the math says it won't stop on its own.

[goodalexander @goodalexander]

If Saylor hadn’t been hopeless and on the verge of bk he wouldn’t have bought BTC

If Kanye hadn’t crashed out he couldn’t redeem himself

If Trump hadn’t been deplatformed and shot at he wouldn’t have won

The world can take away your youth. Your success. Your access.

It can cancel you. Bankrupt you. Destroy your health. Or even try to kill you. It can seem hopeless

But if you can wake up. You can keep going and fight. It’s not “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.”

It’s that when you’re stripped down to nothing you truly understand what it means to leave nothing on the table. You can go to a brink that other people can’t fathom.

The truth is the world is cruel and it crushes a lot of people. And when you do get up it means something to the people who were left behind and couldn’t manage it

Deep down we want to live in a world where redemption is possible. And that belief is fuel when you decide to draw a line in the sand and keep going.

Trump is doing so much crime in office he’s got to pardon everyone. Kanye is still insane. Saylor is running increasingly complex and strange financial games.

It’s not morality that keeps people engaged with these men. And it’s not what makes them great. It’s that - so many ppl were in the same place as they were at their lows - and at some basic level we want to believe it’s possible to still win without the blessing of the machine that destroyed us

And it is. It’s not pretty and it’s not the same the second time. You do things you’d never have considered before. What you lack in energy and optimism you make up for in the simple brutality of having seen the depths and come back

So see it clearly and don’t flinch from it. Both can be true. Redemption is possible. And when you rise again you won’t recognize yourself

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

What if Iran were to become US allies: allow US Bases, strengthen petrodollar, join NATO?
It would truly be a powerful reset!
Random guess, ofcourse

#IranWar #Pakistán #StraitOfHomruz

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

You make money only when you take the trade.

Everytime I do so, the market wants something else.
When I don't, the market does exactly what I think it will.

😞

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

Who is going to violate it this time?
Based on the recent past events (promises, bluffs etc.), is this #IranWar‌ #ceasefire trustworthy?
The markets don't care. They needed a reason to rally. They did.

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

Israel might do something regarding "wipe out a civilization". 🤔

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

Israel might do something regarding "wipe out a civilization". 🤔

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

The deadline might turn out to be a nothing-burger, relative to what folks might be anticipating.
Either some deal happens or there will be an extension.
Markets are... constipated. 🤢

#IranWar‌

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

The deadline might turn out to be a nothing-burger, relative to what folks might be anticipating.
Either some deal happens or there will be an extension.
Markets are... constipated. 🤢

#IranWar‌

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

The deadline for Iran... Why do I get the feeling that it will be the time of a nuclear strike? That would certainly take out everything.
Maybe, I'm just a "panican". 🤷‍♂️
#IranWar‌

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

The deadline for Iran... Why do I get the feeling that it will be the time of a nuclear strike? That would certainly take out everything.
Maybe, I'm just a "panican". 🤷‍♂️
#IranWar‌

[Don Johnson @DonMiami3]

The last 5 words were left off of all the headlines

[Tanvi Ratna @tanvi_ratna]

The US military is moving. JD Vance just flew to Israel and Pakistan. Was it to plan negotiations or a definitive operation? According to all military analysis, Iran is nearly impenetrable for land forces..except through Pakistan..

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

Hunger.
The biggest threat from the current geopolitical situation is that of hunger. Everyone gets affected.
No cooking fuel. Lesser farm output.

Hopefully the situation resolves sooner rather than later.

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

@AndreasSteno Quite sometime before the year ends!

[Bearly Bully @BearlyBully]

It's festival time in the Middle East. Some calm too much to ask for?
#EidMubarak #Ramadan

Carrying long vol trades into the weekend