Darks Ev Modeling

Algorithmic sports model. Finding soft lines, beating the CLV, and executing long-term positive EV edge.
MLB • NFL • NBA • CFB
📊 Public Tracker: Pinned comment

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

Tracker where all plays will be posted and tracked for transparency

Check out Darks_Ev's Action!: actionnetwork://profile?id=5095563

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

66% hit rate on props very good unfortunate pairing from me.

But 53.45% is the needed hit rate on props to profit long term and we crushed that week zero.

2.25units profited assuming Terrell is a dnp void

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

Week 0 Recap
Pass yards / completions
• Trey Hedden Over 161.5 Pass Yards✅
• Davis Warren Over 189.5 Pass Yards✅
• Luke Weaver Over 153.5 Pass Yards✅
• Caden Creel Over 139.5 Pass Yards❌
• Ashton Daniel Over 16.5 Completions✅
• Billy Edwards Over 15.5 Completions✅
Rush yards
• Jabari Bates Over 21.5 Rush Yards✅
• Marcus Stokes Under 36.5 Rush Yards❌
• Beau Pribula Under 36.5 Rush Yards❌
• Micah Ford Under 89.5 Rush Yards❌
• Benjamin Hall Under 46.5 Rush Yards✅
• Ousmane Kromah Under 75.5 Rush Yards❌
• Jayden Scott Under 70.5 Rush Yards✅
• Jaiden Thomas Under 76.5 Rush Yards✅
Receiving yards / receptions
• Jerry McClure Over 22.5 Rec Yards✅
• Taj Reddicks Over 14.5 Rec Yards✅
• Jelani Thurman Under 27.5 Rec Yards❌
• Kayden Dixon-Wyatt Under 34.5 Rec ❌Yards
• Deondre Johnson Under 54.5 Rec Yards✅
• Jekail Middlebrook Under 19.5 Rec Yards✅
• Hunter Tipton Under 43.5 Rec Yards✅
• Benjamin Hall Under 5.5 Rec Yards✅
• Jacquon Gibson Under 3.5 Rec✅
• Terrell Timmons Under 2.5 Rec
• Davion Dozier Under 2.5 Rec✅
• Mark Under 3.5 Rec✅

Add ons
Craig o5.5 RA ❌
Lewis o22.5 Rush yards❌

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

Late additions

Jaden Craig o5.5 carries
Peyton Lewis o22.5 rush yards

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

Week 0 Underdog props
Pass yards / completions
• Trey Hedden Over 161.5 Pass Yards
• Davis Warren Over 189.5 Pass Yards
• Luke Weaver Over 153.5 Pass Yards
• Caden Creel Over 139.5 Pass Yards
• Ashton Daniel Over 16.5 Completions
• Billy Edwards Over 15.5 Completions
Rush yards
• Jabari Bates Over 21.5 Rush Yards
• Marcus Stokes Under 36.5 Rush Yards
• Beau Pribula Under 36.5 Rush Yards
• Micah Ford Under 89.5 Rush Yards
• Benjamin Hall Under 46.5 Rush Yards
• Ousmane Kromah Under 75.5 Rush Yards
• Jayden Scott Under 70.5 Rush Yards
• Jaiden Thomas Under 76.5 Rush Yards
Receiving yards / receptions
• Jerry McClure Over 22.5 Rec Yards
• Taj Reddicks Over 14.5 Rec Yards
• Jelani Thurman Under 27.5 Rec Yards
• Kayden Dixon-Wyatt Under 34.5 Rec Yards
• Deondre Johnson Under 54.5 Rec Yards
• Jekail Middlebrook Under 19.5 Rec Yards
• Hunter Tipton Under 43.5 Rec Yards
• Benjamin Hall Under 5.5 Rec Yards
• Jacquon Gibson Under 3.5 Rec
• Terrell Timmons Under 2.5 Rec
• Davion Dozier Under 2.5 Rec
• Mark Under 3.5 Rec

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

Late Addition
Jaden Craig Higher 5.5 Rush Attempts
Peyton Lewis Higher 22.5 Rush Yards
Pays 3.5x (Risk .5u)
Who’s riding with the model on this one?
Drop a 🔥 if you’re locking it in
#Gambling𝕏 #Playerprops #CFB #Underdog #UNC #TCU #NCState #UVA
UNC @ TCU (Sat 11am) + NC State @ Virginia (Sat 2:30pm)

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

Jabari Bates Higher 21.5 Rush Yards
Marcus Stokes Lower 36.5 Rush Yards
Pays 3.5x (Risk .5u)
Who’s riding with the model on this one?
Drop a 🔥 if you’re locking it in
#Gambling𝕏 #Playerprops #CFB #Underdog #SJSU #USC #Memphis #UNLV
San Jose St @ USC (Sat 2pm) + Memphis @ UNLV (Sat 9pm)

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

Jelani Thurman Lower 27.5 Receiving Yards
Jerry McClure Higher 22.5 Receiving Yards
Pays 3.5x (Risk .5u)
Who’s riding with the model on this one?
Drop a 🔥 if you’re locking it in
#Gambling𝕏 #Playerprops #CFB #Underdog #UNC #TCU #SJSU #USC
UNC @ TCU (Sat 11am) + San Jose St @ USC (Sat 2pm)

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

Kayden Dixon-Wyatt Lower 34.5 Receiving Yards
Taz Reddicks Higher 14.5 Receiving Yards
Pays 3.5x (Risk .5u)
Who’s riding with the model on this one?
Drop a 🔥 if you’re locking it in
#Gambling𝕏 #Playerprops #CFB #Underdog #SJSU #USC #Memphis #UNLV
San Jose St @ USC (Sat 2pm) + Memphis @ UNLV (Sat 9pm)

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

Jacquon Gibson Lower 3.5 Receptions
Terrell Timmons Jr. Lower 2.5 Receptions
Pays 3.5x (Risk .5u)
Who’s riding with the model on this one?
Drop a 🔥 if you’re locking it in
#Gambling𝕏 #Playerprops #CFB #Underdog #NCState #UVA #Memphis #UNLV
NC State @ Virginia (Sat 2:30pm) + Memphis @ UNLV (Sat 9pm)

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

Davion Dozier Lower 2.5 Receptions
Deondre Johnson Lower 54.5 Receiving Yards
Pays 3.5x (Risk .5u)
Who’s riding with the model on this one?
Drop a 🔥 if you’re locking it in
#Gambling𝕏 #Playerprops #CFB #Underdog #NCState #UVA #JaxState #NDSU
NC State @ Virginia (Sat 2:30pm) + Jax State @ N. Dakota St (Sat 4:30pm)

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

Model Play just dropped
Mark Bowman Lower 3.5 Receptions
Jekail Middlebrook Lower 19.5 Receiving Yards
Pays 3.5x (Risk .5u)
Who’s riding with the model on this one?
Drop a 🔥 if you’re locking it in
#Gambling𝕏 #Playerprops #CFB #Underdog #SJSU #USC #NCState #UVA
San Jose St @ USC (Sat 2pm) + NC State @ Virginia (Sat 2:30pm)

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

Model Play just dropped
Benjamin Hall Lower 5.5 Receiving Yards
Micah Ford Lower 89.5 Rush Yards
Pays 3.5x (Risk .5u)
Who’s riding with the model on this one?
Drop a 🔥 if you’re locking it in
#Gambling𝕏 #Playerprops #CFB #Underdog #UNC #TCU #Hawaii #Stanford
UNC @ TCU (Sat 11am) + Hawaii @ Stanford (Sat 6pm)

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

Model Play just dropped
Benjamin Hall Lower 46.5 Rush Yards
Ousmane Kromah Lower 75.5 Rush Yards
Pays 3.5x (Risk .5u)
Who’s riding with the model on this one?
Drop a 🔥 if you’re locking it in
#Gambling𝕏 #Playerprops #CFB #Underdog #UNC #TCU #NMState #FSU
UNC @ TCU (Sat 11am) + NM State @ FSU (Sat ~7pm ET).

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

Model Play just dropped
Luke Weaver Higher 153.5 Pass Yards
Caden Creel Higher 139.5 Pass Yards
Pays 3.5x (Risk .5u)
Who’s riding with the model on this one?
Drop a 🔥 if you’re locking it in
#Gambling𝕏 #Playerprops #CFB #Underdog #SJSU #USC #JaxState #NDSU

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

Model Play just dropped
Jayden Scott Lower 70.5 Rush Yards
Jai’Den Thomas Lower 76.5 Rush Yards
Pays 3.5x (Risk .5u)
Who’s riding with the model on this one?
Drop a 🔥 if you’re locking it in
#Gambling𝕏 #Playerprops #CFB #Underdog #GoPack #GoHoos #Memphis #UNLV

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

Model Play just dropped
Billy Edwards Jr. Higher 15.5 Completions
Hunter Tipton Lower 43.5 Receiving Yards
Pays 3.5x (Risk .5u)
Who’s riding with the model on this one?
Drop a 🔥 if you’re locking it in
#Gambling𝕏 #Playerprops #CFB #Underdog #UNC #TCU #Memphis #UNLV

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

🔥 Massive CLV already printed
Beau Pribula Under 32.5 Rush Yards
Model locked it at 36.5
Line already crashed to 32.5
NC State vs Virginia • Sat 2:30pm
Model > market.

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

Model Play just dropped
Beau Pribula Under 36.5 Rush Yards
Ashton Daniels Over 16.5 Completions
Pays 3.5x (Risk .5u)
Who’s riding with the model on this one?
Drop a 🔥 if you’re locking it in
#Gambling𝕏 #Playerprops #CFB #Underdog #GoHoos #FSU

[Darks Ev Modeling @BeatTheCLV_]

Model Play just dropped
Beau Pribula Under 36.5 Rush Yards
Ashton Daniels Over 16.5 Completions
Pays 3.5x (Risk .5u)
Who’s riding with the model on this one?
Drop a 🔥 if you’re locking it in
#Gambling𝕏 #Playerprops #CFB #Underdog #GoHoos #FSU